Corbynomics: A Dystopia

michaels

Actually looks like aside from Scotland a good night for Labour.

My guess this is about low turnout and Corbyn appealing very strongly to core Labour supporters so it does not say that much about general election politics but probably does show that this core support means that it will be impossible for his opponents to organise a putsch during this parliament.

Filo25

michaels wrote: »

Actually looks like aside from Scotland a good night for Labour.

My guess this is about low turnout and Corbyn appealing very strongly to core Labour supporters so it does not say that much about general election politics but probably does show that this core support means that it will be impossible for his opponents to organise a putsch during this parliament.

A good result for the Tories in all honesty in the counterintuitive way that its a good enough result for Labour to keep Corbyn firmly in charge of Labour.

I've felt for a while that the council elections wouldn't be too bad for Labour, as you say there is probably a bit of an enthusiasm gap between the parties mid-term, the Tories have had a very bad few months anyway, before Labour anti-semitism reared its ugly head and distracted the media for a while.

Most importantly of all its just council elections, most people don't really care about them that much, nobody is worrying that if they vote Labour in a council election that they will wake up tomorrow and find Jeremy Corbyn as their prime minister.

I can imagine a lot of Corbynite Labour members sleepwalking through this term convincing themselves that the election results aren't too bad, no matter what the polls say, and that they can have a good showing in 2020 before the horrible reality kicks them in the teeth if Corbyn is still around by then.

Generali

michaels wrote: »

Actually looks like aside from Scotland a good night for Labour.

My guess this is about low turnout and Corbyn appealing very strongly to core Labour supporters so it does not say that much about general election politics but probably does show that this core support means that it will be impossible for his opponents to organise a putsch during this parliament.

You reckon? I'm not so sure.

Certainly it's looking horrible for Labour in Scotland, a bloodbath. They've lost all the constituency seats in Glasgow and the Tories look set to be the second largest party in the SP (or a very, very close third).

Given that Mr Corbyn seems unlikely to play well in the marginal constituencies of the South Labour are going to have to pick up a lot of seats in Scotland if they are to stand a chance, especially as the Conservatives can get rid of the Gerrymandered advantage that rSDP handed to Labour in a fit of pique.

In England it's all very well for Labour to be managing expectations about how they should be doing but the fact is if they can't get votes now when the Tories are pushing through the unpopular stuff how are they going to fare with a pre-election giveaway?

They need to be killing it and they're not.

vivatifosi

How can it be good for Labour? In ye good old days, the mid term elections were supposed to be the ones where the opposition gain as a measure of disgruntlement against whoever was in power. We're measuring success as Labour losses being less cataclysmic than suspected. Down in Scotland, down in Wales, down in England, down in London... a few potential positives.. incl if Khan gets in, but surely Labour can't think this is a good result.

ETA.. cross posted with Gen.

Moby

Things are different now. Scottish voters are going to continue to blame Labour for the referendum vote for years to come. The tories will gain from this. Wales seeing the growth of UKIP. Pleasantly suprised by the local council results in the South and Midlands and fingers are crossed for Khan after such a nasty smear campaign against him!

antrobus

If you were a Conservative and you were forward planning the 2020 general election campaign, the most important thing would be to retain your biggest electoral asset.

If the cost of keeping Corbyn in office is a few hundred council seats, it's a price worth paying.

vivatifosi

Sky has just said that the result is worse than under Michael Foot. The fact is that on these figures Labour CAN'T win the 2020 election. The Tories are split over Europe and Labour is failing to do what any good opposition should do and keep them on the ropes.

There is a real danger that the Tories will drift to the right, Labour has already gone to the left, and the middle ground where elections are normally won or lost has the potential to be a wasteland, especially considering what has happened to the Lib Dems. Am I alone in finding this scary?

antrobus

P.S.

Whatever happened to Corbynomics?

Moby

Cameron's big night is yet to come.......23/06.....and then we'll see what happens next! That night is going to be far more significant for the future direction of power in this country........the one time I'll be rooting for him!

wotsthat

Labour have learnt nothing from the Ed Miliband experience. When someone is an obvious vote loser there's no point waiting and hoping they'll receive a personality transplant or that things will turn around after a local election, party conference et al.