Corbynomics: A Dystopia

Mistermeaner

Do these polls say anything about the all so important distribution of votes?

I find polls a bit like all the analysis that goes on around football (and other sport) yada yada yada pre and post match but all that matters is what happens on the pitch which noone can ever predict, but everyone is an expert with hindsight

antrobus

Mistermeaner wrote: »

Do these polls say anything about the all so important distribution of votes?...

No.

Well, these days, they tend to treat Scotland as a 'special case'. But apart from that, the usual sample size of 1500-2000 ain't big enough. What you get is a national vote share, that enables you to estimate what the result would be if there was an election, and if there was no change in the distribution.

Even if there had been a correct pre-election poll showing Con 37% Lab 30.5%, that might well have been interpreted as leaving Con short of a majority, because no one would necessarily have predicted that the vote distribution would have changed to favour Con rather Lab.

Generali

antrobus wrote: »

No.

Well, these days, they tend to treat Scotland as a 'special case'. But apart from that, the usual sample size of 1500-2000 ain't big enough. What you get is a national vote share, that enables you to estimate what the result would be if there was an election, and if there was no change in the distribution.

Even if there had been a correct pre-election poll showing Con 37% Lab 30.5%, that might well have been interpreted as leaving Con short of a majority, because no one would necessarily have predicted that the vote distribution would have changed to favour Con rather Lab.

Even then you've got a sample size of perhaps 150 people in Scotland. That's just not likely to lead to a statistically significant outcome.

antrobus

Generali wrote: »

Even then you've got a sample size of perhaps 150 people in Scotland. That's just not likely to lead to a statistically significant outcome.

But the pollsters got Scotland right. The polls were predicting a SNP landslide, and that's exactly what happened.:)

setmefree2

Moby wrote: »

Meanwhile on the horizon is a very contentious EU referendum.

Very contentious for the Labour Party. Kate Hoey is heading up the Labour Leave campaign and wants a free vote. She will probably get it too. But not before Labour have had a very public slanging match.

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/kate-hoey/labour-leave-eu-referendum_b_9030102.html

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jan/20/labour-eurosceptics-accuse-corbyn-reversing-position-eu-referendum

setmefree2

Moby wrote: »

Interesting little statistic for the bigots on this thread

You're a right charmer aren't you?

gadgetmind

Anyone who doesn't totally agree with Comrade Corbyn on every issue is now officially a bigot. Didn't you get the edict?

setmefree2

Generali wrote: »

And a quick note from Martin Boon of ICM for those who feel that a 5 point lead for the Tories gives Labour hope:

To quote Dame Margaret Beckett

The report makes no bones about the mountain to climb: needing to gain 94 seats to secure a majority of just two, with only 24 Conservative seats boasting a majority of less than 3,000 over Labour, and only two seats in Scotland where the SNP majority over Labour is less than 5,000.
Add to the mix a boundary review likely to favour the Tories, an ageing population and little sign of recovery in Scotland, and the future looks bleak.

setmefree2

gadgetmind wrote: »

Anyone who doesn't totally agree with Comrade Corbyn on every issue is now officially a bigot. Didn't you get the edict?

Full Definition of bigot. : a person who is obstinately or intolerantly devoted to his or her own opinions and prejudices; especially one who regards or treats the members of a group with hatred and intolerance.

Perfect description of Moby and his fellow comrades

Moby

setmefree2 wrote: »

Full Definition of bigot. : a person who is obstinately or intolerantly devoted to his or her own opinions and prejudices; especially one who regards or treats the members of a group with hatred and intolerance.

Perfect description of Moby and his fellow comrades

You can twist it anyway you like. This nasty little thread is peopled by right wing haters who thank each other for trawling out the most recent 'news' to smear and pour derision on a decent human being. Anyone who dares to offer a different view is mobbed by the clique who also think that repeating the same point again and again or 'cleverly' twisting the debate makes them even more right. Then their fellow travellers thank them and they feel even more reassured in their self righteous superiority. As I said arrogance and self awareness don't complement each other and luckily for me I rarely encounter such anti social views in the real world. Such types tend to be more reticent in company.....probably explains why they spend their days on here:p