How will the economy be affected by SNP MPs; will it be for richer or for poorer and

elantan

kabayiri wrote: »

It's just a starting position, the £14bn you need to find.

I am not one who says this is insurmountable. I do think it will mean some pretty stark choices in the short/mid term.

We could spend all day arguing whether you need to cut £5bn or £10bn from the annual budget to be a viable independent entity. It's not going to be something smallish like £500m though.

The only way to know is to test the water. Try and operate on say £3bn less in 2016. See if the voters like the day to day impact this brings.

Long term, I can't see Westminster putting up with a £7bn subsidy when the rest of the UK is seeing difficult cuts. You might as well try and strike out on your own.

Yep I'm all for that

elantan

Thrugelmir wrote: »

There was no plan B. Fanatics have a total disregard for such trivial matters.

Hmmmm OK we will just pretend that Wee Eck never cut his teeth in the oil industry, we will ignore his economics credentials ... Not got a clue about fluctuating oil prices no sireeeee ... Sheesh far to easy an own goal there thrugel

CLAPTON

elantan wrote: »

Hmmmm OK we will just pretend that Wee Eck never cut his teeth in the oil industry, we will ignore his economics credentials ... Not got a clue about fluctuating oil prices no sireeeee ... Sheesh far to easy an own goal there thrugel

I thought that the great leader cut his teeth at the Royal Bank of Scotland (before he discovered it was really English around 2007/8) and was proud to be associated with that great Scotsman Fred Godwyn who was leading a great Scottish bank.

But memory plays tricks on us all doesn't it?

Thrugelmir

elantan wrote: »

Hmmmm OK we will just pretend that Wee Eck never cut his teeth in the oil industry, we will ignore his economics credentials ... Not got a clue about fluctuating oil prices no sireeeee ... Sheesh far to easy an own goal there thrugel

No own goal. As there was defence. All 11 men were trying to score at the opposition's end.

Wasn't the forecast for the price of oil to rise and rise. Yet 4 months later tax breaks were demanded to support the industry. So credentials mean actually little.

Very similar to the EU being in denial over Greece. Politics isn't all conquering. Market forces rule.

Shakethedisease

Thrugelmir wrote: »

What was Osborne doing to choke off growth?

Cuts. He ended up borrowing more, easing off on austerity and doing a bit of a u-turn. He then missed all his 2010 targets.

Yet the truth is that the UK recovery has been very weak. The return to pre-crisis levels of real GDP per head has taken two years longer even than in the Great Depression. This is so even though, quite wisely, the UK’s structural fiscal tightening was allowed to slow sharply after 2011-12.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/11c048cc-0dcf-11e5-aa7b-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3czDCtRjB

Governments of the day can only pull levers and see what happens. So not taking a chance. Policies will be adapted to changing circumstances. No different to the way business works.

Yes, I think you've just made the SNP's point there for them re needing all fiscal levers available in order to *'see what happens'. Having a bit of control over income tax bands and road signs won't really do the job will it. Osborne is talking very tough at the moment. And his policies seem almost experimental and openly political rather than economically sound. There aren't a great many that agree with what he intends doing. And in all honesty myself.. while I see the need for deficit/debt reduction. I do think that it's turned into a bit of a media driven brainwashing exercise the last few years. More to win votes and paint the Labour party as a bit crap with the economy than anything else.

Naturally, such considerations — including the case for fiscal stimulus — apply only if a country has fiscal space. Whether one does so is a matter of judgment. But markets and the IMF agree that the UK has such space. Supporting this view is the fact that the ratio of public debt to GDP remains well below its average of the past three centuries.

It is hard to know whether Mr Osborne really intends to make delivery of an overall fiscal surplus his overriding objective in this parliament. After all, he did not deliver his initial objectives in the last one. It is clear, however, that the obsession with public debt is unhealthy.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/11c048cc-0dcf-11e5-aa7b-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3czDCtRjB

* see what happens = taking a chance

If you think that the past 5 years was austere. Then see what the next 5 years brings. As it's only going to get tougher.

We know.

GDP is of little concern outside of politics as means little. Banking is still undergoing fundamental change. The likelihood of a liquidity crisis in the UK banks has well passed, as that was the fundamental purpose behind QE. The BOE role is maintain stability in the banking system.

There is the little matter however, of the fact Osborne wants to pass a few laws hamstringing/straightjacketing his own government in order that it can't react quickly to unexpected events. And there is to be something deemed as 'normal' economic times. There is never any time in history where a financial crash or crisis is anticipated well in advance, or 'well passed' forever.

FFA or Osborne... Hmmmm....risky either way. :cool:

Shakethedisease

kabayiri wrote: »

I don't think he expected a relatively moribund Eurozone during the last parliamentary term.

This has just as much impact on growth.

You seem to think it so easy this prediction business.

Well you and others seem to think it's really easy when it comes to Scottish finances for some weird reason. Predictions all over the shop from everywhere including 30 years from now ( that was Hamish's fave during the ref campaign ). But Osborne is miraculously exempt from knowing exactly what's going to happen to UK finances over 5 years, didn't figure Europe in, missed targets, will keep AAA rating, whoops lost it, need to 'finish the job'...
Be honest now. There's no way you'd let Swinney/Salmond or Sturgeon get away with that sort of vague airy-fairy flannel. It's a good job most of the newspapers etc are on hand to support Osborne that's for sure, because no other political party in the UK would've ever gotten away with even quarter of the above.

How come the SNP didn't anticipate the slump in oil prices in the referendum discussions? What happened to that prediction?

They took the average of the OBR and DECC oil predictions for the White paper. Ask them perhaps ? The SNP took the figs from the same place the UK Govt does for predictions. What's wrong with that ?

Shakethedisease

CLAPTON wrote: »

I thought that the great leader cut his teeth at the Royal Bank of Scotland (before he discovered it was really English around 2007/8) and was proud to be associated with that great Scotsman Fred Godwyn who was leading a great Scottish bank.

But memory plays tricks on us all doesn't it?

It was both. He wasn't folding towels.. :cool:

In 1982 he was appointed Oil Economist, and from 1984 he worked as a bank economist as well as continuing to hold the position of Oil Economist.[16] While with the Royal Bank, he wrote and broadcast extensively for both domestic and international outlets. He also contributed regularly to oil and energy conferences. In 1983 Salmond created a "Royal Bank/BBC oil index" that is still used.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alex_Salmond

Generali

Gotta love the Paddy Power marketing department:

https://uk.eurosport.yahoo.com/news/paddy-power-just-taken-major-dig-scotland-freedom-114318739--sow.html

CLAPTON

Shakethedisease wrote: »

It was both. He wasn't folding towels.. :cool:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alex_Salmond

So we agree that great leader workedd for the Royal Bank of Scotland as an oil economist and was a great admirer of the bank and of Fred.
That of course before the SNP discovered that RBS was really an English bank and the great leaders role in the Royal Bank of Scotland was airbrushed out of SNP history.

The fact he is fully aware of the economics of Scottish oil, makes the SNP propaganda during the referendum debates all the more disgraceful.

elantan

Generali wrote: »

Gotta love the Paddy Power marketing department:

https://uk.eurosport.yahoo.com/news/paddy-power-just-taken-major-dig-scotland-freedom-114318739--sow.html

Have to admit I did like that one, had a week chuckle at it