Brexit

RJP33

S0litaire wrote: »

Looks like Cameron's kicked it into the long grass again...

No EU treaty change till "after" the referendum!

Given how long previous treaties and changes have taken to negotiate, and the increased member numbers, doing it by 2017 was always unrealistic.

MacMickster wrote: »

The interest of the EU and its legions of bureaucrats is undoubtedly in moving towards a federal Europe, although this goal is not set down in any treaty on which anyone has had a chance to vote.

This is plainly obvious to everyone, step by step.

antrobus

CLAPTON wrote: »

so the UK could benefit from reducing tariffs with all our trading partners once we leave the shackles of the EU tariff walls?

So argue Messrs Murray and Broomfield. However, Messrs Ottaviano, G, J Pessoa, T Sampson and J Van Reenen say it could cost us 10% of GDP.

The trouble with auxilliary verbs like 'could'; they can cover quite a range of possibilities.:)

CLAPTON

antrobus wrote: »

So argue Messrs Murray and Broomfield. However, Messrs Ottaviano, G, J Pessoa, T Sampson and J Van Reenen say it could cost us 10% of GDP.

The trouble with auxilliary verbs like 'could'; they can cover quite a range of possibilities.:)

that is, of course, because there is a range of possibilities

Generali

RJP33 wrote: »

Or in other words, when it comes down to it you can't be bothered?

Fixed it for you.

purch

antrobus wrote: »

So argue Messrs Murray and Broomfield. However, Messrs Ottaviano, G, J Pessoa, T Sampson and J Van Reenen say it could cost us 10% of GDP.

Nobody actually knows.

Somebody leaving the "club" will be a rather unique event, so everything is speculation.

Whatever happens , if the UK did exit, the end result will be trotally different to just about every scenario so far being put forward.

Just as nobody in the EUR has ever defaulted........yet :eek:

Generali

purch wrote: »

Nobody actually knows.

Somebody leaving the "club" will be a rather unique event, so everything is speculation.

Whatever happens , if the UK did exit, the end result will be trotally different to just about every scenario so far being put forward.

Just as nobody in the EUR has ever defaulted........yet :eek:

A Brexit would put the UK into a rather interesting situation.

Off the top of my head, without fresh and quite complicated legislation:

1. Most Britons abroad would presumably become illegal immigrants as they have an EU passport rather than a UK one(?).
1.1 Britons working or retired in EU countries would be illegal immigrants.
2. Similarly, most people from EU countries in the UK would become illegal immigrants as the UK would no longer be a part of the single labour market.
3. The UK would have no trade agreements with any countries.
4. The UK would have no laws regarding fishing in national waters.
5. UK Citizens in the EU would no longer have access to health services without paying (as an example, admittance to an A&E bed in Aus unless you have a local health card or can prove insurance is AU$1300 typically, they take VISA but not AMEX).

As with the Scexit(!), a Brexit would cause immense upheaval and cost. Even if I'm wrong, something that happens occasionally apparently, and there would be nil private economic cost to a Brexit the Governmental cost, which would have to be passed on through taxes today or tomorrow, would be massive.

Britain is not oppressed by the EU any more than Scotland is oppressed by the UK. You can stand outside the Elysee and sing 'God Save the Queen' or even 'God Damn the French' and you won't be arrested. What's to be gained from quitting apart from the right to use the rod, furlong and pint?

kabayiri

Rather like the Scottish indy discussions I think we are in danger of being very UK-centric when we see this.

The departure of UK from the EU would be an event for the other EU countries too.

How would the EU change? Would there be a change in their approach? Would the resolve shared by the core nations at the heart of the EU only harden?

I think that to be successful any organisation needs to be able to adapt to changing situations.

purch

For Gen...

1. We don't know what other countries would do about UK Citizens
1.1 Ditto
2. We don't know how HM Gov will view EU citiizens currently resiiding in the UK
3. We do not know how other nations would view trade with the UK. Have any said that they would either not trade or enforce barriers and/or tarriffs ? Maybe they will follow a sensible approach and have transitional arrangements in place to allow recipricol trade whilst negotiations take place.
4. We'd better get some drafter PDQ
5. Again we do not know what arrangements could be negotiated or transitional arrangem,ents agreed.

In fact, we know very very little.

There is a lot of presumption going on without any evidence.

Anyway, the UK will not vote to leave the EU, and Cameron will get about 30% of the concessions he wants from the other leaders as probably deep down they agree wholeheartedly with most of them.

The EU is like the Emperors New Clothes. Everybody knows what is happening and what needs changing for everyones good, but nobody has the guts to stick their head above the parapit and say so.

Generali

kabayiri wrote: »

Rather like the Scottish indy discussions I think we are in danger of being very UK-centric when we see this.

The departure of UK from the EU would be an event for the other EU countries too.

How would the EU change? Would there be a change in their approach? Would the resolve shared by the core nations at the heart of the EU only harden?

I think that to be successful any organisation needs to be able to adapt to changing situations.

For a start the EU would lose the second or third largest national economy (depending on FX rates).

Germany would lose a huge internal customer within the single market.

I am starting to wonder if I'm thinking about this the wrong way. Perhaps Britain within the EU is more like Surrey or Yorkshire than Scotland in the UK.

kabayiri

Generali wrote: »

...

I am starting to wonder if I'm thinking about this the wrong way. Perhaps Britain within the EU is more like Surrey or Yorkshire than Scotland in the UK.

The whole Smith commission / Vow business can be challenged on the basis of politicking or quality.

There is no doubt however, that at heart it is a rational response to a region of the UK finding itself at odds with central policy making.

I am struggling at the moment to see a similar unified response from the EU politicians. I suspect it's difficult to manage expectations now that it has 28 countries rather than the core.

On the subject of controlling the numbers of migration a place like Poland is going to have a much tougher stance than some of the other countries.