Brexit

gfplux

Voting for staying in (yes) or leaving (no) surely will come down to a simple equation for each potential voter. "What's in it for me" I frankly can not see discussions intellectual or otherwise of the pros and cons having much impact.

Groups of voters might split into large groups who will have the same self interest.
Perhaps as follows:- (I have thought of the following four groups)

Voters and family dependants in Manufacturing......will my job be more or less secure

Voters and family dependants working in distribution and Retail...... Will my job be more or less secure

Voters and family dependants working in the civil service........will they need more civil servants or less.

Voters who NEVER vote......will they care enough to vote.

I would be interested in people's opinion if I have missed any large groupings of voters AND how the above groups and others will vote.

Generali

gfplux wrote: »

Voting for staying in (yes) or leaving (no) surely will come down to a simple equation for each potential voter. "What's in it for me" I frankly can not see discussions intellectual or otherwise of the pros and cons having much impact.

Groups of voters might split into large groups who will have the same self interest.
Perhaps as follows:- (I have thought of the following four groups)

Voters and family dependants in Manufacturing......will my job be more or less secure

Voters and family dependants working in distribution and Retail...... Will my job be more or less secure

Voters and family dependants working in the civil service........will they need more civil servants or less.

Voters who NEVER vote......will they care enough to vote.

I would be interested in people's opinion if I have missed any large groupings of voters AND how the above groups and others will vote.

There's the racist/nationalist vote who just want out of Europe because they hate foreigners (not saying everyone that wants out of Europe is a racist to be clear).

I honestly believe that the chances of the UK leaving the EU are vanishingly small. For a start, people vote for the status quo and secondly most people realise that for all its faults, the EU adds hugely to the economy of the UK.

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/we-want-to-stay-in-eu-voters-tell-pm-10331462.html

The survey for the Evening Standard used the exact wording expected to be on voting slips in the poll, due to be held by the end of 2017. In addition, half the 1,005-strong sample was asked a second question with a wording used on Ipsos MORI surveys over four decades: “If there were a referendum now on whether Britain should stay in or get out of the European Union, how would you vote?”



It found another huge majority to stay in, of 61 per cent to 27. That included 63 per cent of Conservatives and 76 per cent of Labour backers who want to stay. Almost all Ukip supporters would leave, however.

purch

Almost all Ukip supporters would leave, however.

Never trust a pole..............oops poll :eek:

padington

When the nation considers the possible extra effort it might mean getting to and from Spain each time, we'll chose to stay, for sure.

All those little arguments have yet to play out, people are effected by their direct personal experience with the problem. Holidays to Europe and the option that you could work over there whenever you wanted are the two biggies I think for most normal people.

The macro economic arguements of leaving also won't work whilst we are going through a period of growth.

We're in Europe for the long haul. Problem is, the Germans probably know this too so getting a ' better deal' isn't going to be easy.

kabayiri

padington wrote: »

...
We're in Europe for the long haul. Problem is, the Germans probably know this too so getting a ' better deal' isn't going to be easy.

They most certainly don't know this.

Of course, there will be polls to try and determine the result, but I think more people will be selective as to revealing their intention to pollsters.

If Germany and France et al want to win over the British people as to the benefits of the EU then they have every opportunity to pile on the charm offensive between now and the referendum.

kbrumann

Must the UK leave the EU? Response to ten arguments from UKIP http://iitm.be/10UKIP

antrobus

kbrumann wrote: »

Must the UK leave the EU? Response to ten arguments from UKIP http://iitm.be/10UKIP

1. The EU is committed to ever closer political union.

Response: The actual wording “An Ever Closer Union Among the Peoples of Europe” was a diplomatic compromise with the Conservative government at Westminster. ...

The actual wording is from Treaty of Rome of 1957. Granted we did have a Conservative Government in 1957, but I am at a loss to understand why the six signatories of that treaty would have needed to compromise with the UK at that time.

Not a good start.

RJP33

Generali wrote: »

There's the racist/nationalist vote who just want out of Europe because they hate foreigners (not saying everyone that wants out of Europe is a racist to be clear).

You could flip that round and say our current policy is discriminatory against non-EU people, who have to go through the full visa process while EU countries don’t.

It’s a ridiculous set of circumstances where a surgeon from Pakistan on our skilled shortage list needs to wait months and pay substantial fees when EU workers can come anytime and do anything.

[FONT=&quot]

Generali wrote: »

the EU adds hugely to the economy of the UK.

Prove it, vs. our contribution.[/FONT]

Thrugelmir

the Evening Standard

Where the people polled eligble to vote?


I would assume that London is EU centric.

Generali

RJP33 wrote: »

[FONT=&quot] Prove it, vs. our contribution.[/FONT]

It's not worth the time investment for me. You wouldn't believe me and I'm not going to spend the several hours required.

Look on Google Scholar and you'll find plenty of studies supporting my position. And yours too no doubt.