Brexit

RJP33

antrobus wrote: »

You misunderstand. I don't particularly like the EU. I'd happily vote to exit the damn thing if I thought that someone had a vaguely coherent idea as to what to do afterwards. Sadly, beyond a bit of flag-waving to the tune of Land of Hope and Glory, I have yet to see anyone to do so.

There's a world of opportunity out there, not withstanding potential cost savings. Funnily enough it'll be the no campaign that will likely present the positive vision but everything has risks and unknowns.

Generali wrote: »

LOL. Good luck with getting trade agreements signed with the rest of the world.

Like the Commonwealth preferential agreements we had before joining the EEC?

Generali

RJP33 wrote: »

There's a world of opportunity out there, not withstanding potential cost savings. Funnily enough it'll be the no campaign that will likely present the positive vision.
Like the Commonwealth preferential agreements we had before joining the EEC?

Life has gotten a lot more complicated since those days.

India, potentially a prime export market for the UK, is highly protectionist.

Read this:

http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21611064-world-trade-organisations-whole-approach-negotiating-free-trade-needs-radical-change-no

It will give you a pretty good idea of how much worse off from a trade perspective the UK would be outside the EU.

antrobus

RJP33 wrote: »

There's a world of opportunity out there, not withstanding potential cost savings. Funnily enough it'll be the no campaign that will likely present the positive vision but everything has risks and unknowns....

When I refer to a "vaguely coherent idea as to what to do afterwards", I'm actually hoping for a little bit more than the promise of a "world of opportunity".:)

RJP33 wrote: »

...Like the Commonwealth preferential agreements we had before joining the EEC?

What Commonwealth preferential agreements? 'Imperial Preference' was a Joe Chmaberlain thing, and we had an Empire Free Trade Party for a time, but nothing really came of them.

CLAPTON

BobQ wrote: »

Do you understand the concept of debate? Try joining the dots on your own.

Which jobs do you expect to transfer from the EU to the UK after Brexit?

So you think Citreon, Seat and BMW are planning to move jobs out of the EU? Do explain this?

I expect individual companies to make the decisions to maximise profits except where restrictions on trade are applied.

I didn't predict the transfer of jobs from Japan or other car manufactures to the UK over the last 30 years.
I didn't predict the transfer of jobs from Northern Europe to Greece either.
In the same way I can't predict where jobs will come from in the future.

I think that it will be in the best interests of both the UK and the EU countries to minimise disruption and to mutually benefit from trade.

One believes in the mutual benefits of trade and one believes these apply to non European countries as well as with the EU.

The EU is becoming a dinosaur and increasingly finding it impossible to react appropriately to world situations.
It is corrupt and many of its policies are politically based and ignore scientific evidence.
One only needs to look at the last 8 years and feel no pleasure in how the EU has reacted to the financial crisis.

One wonders how other nations manage: however do Aus or New Zealand survive at all?

gfplux

Clapton is right when he says nothing will happen overnight if there is a vote to leave the EU.
Take car manufacturing. Presently a large number of cars are made in the UK to export to the rest of Europe. Leaving the EU would not immediately result in trade barriers going up but if I owned one of those factory's I would worry about that. Perhaps I would be more worried tho about the strength of the pound that make my cars more expensive to people buying in Euros. The pound today buys about €1.40. Some say this is due to a week euro due to fears of the Grexit.
With so may variables the decision to increase or decrease future production of cars in the UK must be giving car executives nightmares.
I wonder what you or I would do in their place?
I also wonder which way people who work in the car industry will vote. Actually will they bother vote? In the recent general election (66% turnout) the Tory party said they would continue the policy of shrinking help from the state but I wonder how many people on benefits bothered to vote. Turkeys voting (or not voting) for Christmas comes to mind.

antrobus

gfplux wrote: »

.....Take car manufacturing. Presently a large number of cars are made in the UK to export to the rest of Europe. Leaving the EU would not immediately result in trade barriers going up but if I owned one of those factory's I would worry about that. ....

Unless otherwise agreed, then an EU exit would mean that UK manufactured cars would be subject to 10% duty.

CLAPTON

antrobus wrote: »

Unless otherwise agreed, then an EU exit would mean that UK manufactured cars would be subject to 10% duty.

No, UK manufactured cars can be exported to countries all over the world, subject the the tariff pertaining to those countries.

We don't know that the arrangements with the EU would be but we do know they export more to the UK than the UK exports to the EU.

Generali

CLAPTON wrote: »

No, UK manufactured cars can be exported to countries all over the world, subject the the tariff pertaining to those countries.

We don't know that the arrangements with the EU would be but we do know they export more to the UK than the UK exports to the EU.

Well of course on leaving the EU the UK would have precisely 0 trade agreements in place so exporting to anywhere might be problematic.

antrobus

CLAPTON wrote: »

No, UK manufactured cars can be exported to countries all over the world, subject the the tariff pertaining to those countries.

We don't know that the arrangements with the EU would be but we do know they export more to the UK than the UK exports to the EU.

I was responding to the statement that "Presently a large number of cars are made in the UK to export to the rest of Europe", and was noting that an EU exit would mean that cars are made in the UK would be subject to 10% duty when exported to the EU. Thus there would be an immediate trade barrier in respect of passenger motor vehicles.

Generali wrote: »

Well of course on leaving the EU the UK would have precisely 0 trade agreements in place so exporting to anywhere might be problematic.

You can rely on WTO rules of course. But then the WTO seems to take a long time to not get anywhere very much and is increasingly being sidelined by a succession of bilateral trade agreements.

kabayiri

You'd imagine with something like cars they would work fairly quickly to put something into place.

The UK is a significant export market for the likes of BMW and Mercedes. I wouldn't like to be an exec in one of those companies having to explain a sharp drop in sales in one of my key export markets.

We can imagine how UK car manufacturer bosses would hope to convince their employees of the benefit in staying in the EU.

I wonder how the luxury German car manufacturers would seek to woo the British public. Would there be a charm offensive from Europe in the run up to the referendum?