Stock Market crash-not if but when?

Glen_Clark

mike88 wrote: »

"Buying opportunities are out there"

Maybe but.........................On the basis that markets don't like uncertainty I would hesitate buying anything now unless buyers are prepared to gamble on a Conservative win. A Labour victory will see shares fall and a hung Parliament will produce even more uncertainty which is generally bad for shares.

I can't see any reason to buy now.

The reason being put forward is that the concerns you mention are already priced in, since the FTSE is yielding more than other developed markets.
The Tories have promised a referendum on Europe and more borrowing to pump up house prices, will the equity markets like that any better than a Labour victory?

Crag30

mike88 wrote: »

"Buying opportunities are out there"

A Labour victory will see shares fall and a hung Parliament will produce even more uncertainty which is generally bad for shares.

I can't see any reason to buy now.

Why, when the Tories are going to have a referendum?
Surely that will unstabilise things

Ooops, getting political now. Soooorrry

Glen_Clark

Crag30 wrote: »

Ooops, getting political now. Soooorrry

Unfortunately, political interference in the markets has made successful investing inseparable from politics. Rather than fundamentals, prices are being driven by a suggestion from politicians puppets about what their next market intervention might be

mike88

Glen_Clark wrote: »

The reason being put forward is that the concerns you mention are already priced in, since the FTSE is yielding more than other developed markets.
The Tories have promised a referendum on Europe and more borrowing to pump up house prices, will the equity markets like that any better than a Labour victory?

I don't subscribe to the view that markets always price in events 12 months or even longer before they happen. It does happen but it only takes some bad news in the press for markets to react instantaneously.

Arguably nervousness in the markets over the last few days is to do with the uncertain Election outcome as well of course as to do with international events.

I agree that a Tory victory will also create uncertainty but markets may take the view that in the event of an OUT vote some kind of trade deal will be devised to ensure both UK and European businesses will be able to trade on the same basis as they do now remembering that as a country we import from Europe more than we export. And, unlike at present, the UK will be able to conduct international trade agreements with non European countries currently undertaken by the EU which could be a positive.

Moreover, if there is an OUT vote in 2017 there might well be another General Election before the UK leaves which could scupper the deal. But all of this is years away and not even markets can anticipate the outcome 3 or 4 years before anything actually happens. So will these uncertainties be greater than the immediate worries of a Labour victory?

I think not. The problem with a Labour victory is that markets are aware of their historical record of high borrowing, tax and spend policies and for not being particularly business friendly which must affect share prices.

Apologies for this political response which makes me sound like a Tory voter which I am not.

BrockStoker

Kendall80 wrote: »

I'm using the current correction to top up my ISA funds. A 5% or 6% drop = buying opportunity


I'll top up some more if they get 10% down.

Which "current correction" would that be? Biotech?

IronWolf

masonic wrote: »

TA is the astrology of the investment world.

LOL, couldn't have put it better, this about sums up my view on all this

Glen_Clark

mike88 wrote: »

The problem with a Labour victory is that markets are aware of their historical record of high borrowing,

But no Labour Government has borrowed anywhere near as much as this one (much of it wasted on their obsessive housing market interventions) They have doubled the National debt that had been built up over 300 years including 12 years of Gordon Brown!!

mike88

Glen_Clark wrote: »

But no Labour Government has borrowed anywhere near as much as this one (much of it wasted on their obsessive housing market interventions) They have doubled the National debt that had been built up over 300 years including 12 years of Gordon Brown!!

When there is a deficit borrowing will always rise. As a proportion of GDP debt has fallen by 40 %.

Kendall80

BrockStoker wrote: »

Which "current correction" would that be? Biotech?

My asia-pacific fund is nearly 10% down from its recent high.


My euro fund is 8% down.


My small cap fund is down a similar amount.


Take your pick.


Yes my biotech fund has also dropped significantly.


I'm still up overall 6% YTD so as I stated i'm using this as a buying opp.

BrockStoker

Kendall80 wrote: »

My asia-pacific fund is nearly 10% down from its recent high.


My euro fund is 8% down.


My small cap fund is down a similar amount.


Take your pick.


Yes my biotech fund has also dropped significantly.


I'm still up overall 6% YTD so as I stated i'm using this as a buying opp.

Ahh yes, after looking at some funds today that I'm keeping an eye on it seems quite a few sectors/regions are taking a dip! I only have an Asian fund (not asia-pacific) and it's starting to follow suit so I haven't seen as big a dip in mine yet.

I do have an Indian fund that has been falling (more than 13% since it's previous high now) which I topped up, but to my horror, I found out after that, that the fund had been soft-closed, wiping out 4% of any potential gains should the fund go up again :eek:

Lesson learned the hard way - from now on I'll check more carefully before topping up, but still very annoyed that a fund that I only added to my portfolio in March is already soft-closed and right in the middle of a correction!