Who will win the UK election ?

padington

Generali wrote: »

Labour may face an unappealing choice after the election: govern with the Tories and lose Scotland for a generation or govern with the SNP and lose England for a generation.

We may be seeing the death of the Labour party. The unions want to push Labour to the left and are very uncomfortable supporting the Blairite side of the party. The English just won't vote in enough numbers for the Labour left to get in.

The best thing for labour is to lose ( if it can't get a majority ) take to opposition and remove Ed (maybe bring on a dream team with Alan Johnson and David Milliand. Thats their best long term opportunity I can see. Forming a coalition either way could certainly prove to result in wounds that may take a generation to heal.

The second best outcome is a unity govenrment with tories and libdems but only I think if Ed falls on his sword. It's a shame, he's a nice guy and no doubt the most honourable of the lot but he just hasn't got the knack for winning over the whole nation.

If you do tax the rich, do it with a clear arguement that it's needed to spur innovation and show how it will happen, don't do it by using a language which causes extra anxiety to new capital coming this way by bashing 'mansions'. If you're going to solve the NHS problems do it by talking about taxing lifestyles like binge drinking or drug taking which costs the nation billions and be radical, change the stupid drug laws. If you're going to solve the housing crises, build clear 3D models that paint exciting new maps of new mini cities and be clear where they are going to be built. Pioneer new forms of direct democracy for local councils with Internet voting.

Be honest about current renewable technology, it's crap, focus on developing the next generation of renewables and sell that to the world. Agree to make many new international working opportunities with working visa swap treaties with all the key up and coming countries. Initiate the hunt to find the new internet genius's and back the best idea's to the hilt, no one minds a bit of nationalisation if it means the nation might own a part of the next Facebook.

Make the BBC earn its keep more often, it should be a thumping great profit making success, how the hell is it loosing money year on year on year? The money spent on local bbc news which is huge and the product is frankly rubbish, it needs to stop, forthwith. Reconsider immigration, it is a blessing that we are an attractive country for new comers but lets be honest we do let in some chumps that australia would never have allowed in, EU can change its laws on free movement, there could be alternative possibilities, freedom those that deserve to be free, push for them. Also having whole communities pretending their wife is single so they get all the benefits whilst the man works is going to caus animosity towards those communities, do something about it.

Damn it, stop this nonsense of paying people to not work, make everyone work the hours they are paid. Liberate the country from letting people rot on benefits, give them a purpose to live, they will be the ones that benefit the most eventually. If the unions don't like it, tell them where to go, the middle class's don't let their children rot on the sofa, why let anyone else's kids ? Treat these new workers with respect and nurture them, be liberal to those generally Ill but try to involve everyone in some way, it's rare to find someone that's not got the abilit to give anything back.

Equally when bankers bring the nations to the knee's by criminal means, lock them up, throw away the key. See how quickly the next lot try that trick on again. If big business doesn't like it, f*ck them and make treaties around the world so they have no where to hide.

Lead from the front, be bold and clear about your intentions and never bash aspiration , bash the behaviours everyone hates instead (fraud, idiocy or hypocracy).

The more I think about it only a unity government could do all this, shake the shackles of self interest from the top and bottom and bring in the changes that the real majority of MP agree's with in private but doesn't feel they have the freedom to actually do.

chewmylegoff

I would have thought that I f labour don't get an overall majority the best thing for them would be to miss by a relatively small number of seats such that they could get into power by entering into coalition with the lib dems.

padington

chewmylegoff wrote: »

I would have thought that I f labour don't get an overall majority the best thing for them would be to miss by a relatively small number of seats such that they could get into power by entering into coalition with the lib dems.

Sorry yes, I jumped the gun on that one, my presumption is this won't happen, if they need SNP suport, which I imagine will be necessary, may result in any large sums of money spent on the people that already enjoy the best deal per head resulting in solidifying the SNP's position and lose votes accross south England right left and centre.

Saying that, linking the great Northern cities with Edinburogh and Glasgow by cross rail is a nice idea on the face of it, London is a bloody important city and we need to keep a leading world captial and that means huge investment but it shouldn't be the only string in our bow, we should aim to spread our eggs a little more but is a not very fast 'fast' train network that costs a fortune on the 'never never', really a good idea and do you really think those few SNP members that maybe necessary to suport lib lab laws are going to demand anything less ?

BobQ

I have no idea what will happen but I think that UKIP's support will not fall enough to make a big impact on the level of Tory seats. There is a sizeable rump of Tories are anti immigration and anti EU who do not trust Cameron to address either problem

I think another factor is that in the last election and before people were not thinking that there would be a hung parliament whereas now most are expecting it. Combine this with the fact that the electorate is more au fait with tactical voting we could see many more unexpected effects.

Even in Scotland the pro-unionists may do strange things to keep the SNP out. Some of those saying they will vote SNP might still desert them. You might get tactical voting to stop SNP candidates by voting for the strongest alternative.

I have never voted Tory in my life but if I were in Scotland I would rather vote Tory than SNP.

Loughton_Monkey

BobQ wrote: »

.....I think another factor is that in the last election and before people were not thinking that there would be a hung parliament whereas now most are expecting it. Combine this with the fact that the electorate is more au fait with tactical voting we could see many more unexpected effects.......

Not sure!

Yes, individuals may well choose to vote tactically, but I suspect they even out most of the time.

More interestingly, we might see 'tactical standing' once the formation of a new government proves impossible, or lasts the proverbial '5 minutes'. What then?

Farage to Cameron: "Stand down your candidate in my constituancy. Promise me XYZ. I'll stand down all UKIP candidates in the marginals."

Labour MP's to Miliband: "Stand down, or we have 40 MP's waiting to join the Liberals."

We could have a whole summer of party elections/general elections.

padington

BobQ wrote: »

I have no idea what will happen but I think that UKIP's support will not fall enough to make a big impact on the level of Tory seats. There is a sizeable rump of Tories are anti immigration and anti EU who do not trust Cameron to address either problem

I think another factor is that in the last election and before people were not thinking that there would be a hung parliament whereas now most are expecting it. Combine this with the fact that the electorate is more au fait with tactical voting we could see many more unexpected effects.

Even in Scotland the pro-unionists may do strange things to keep the SNP out. Some of those saying they will vote SNP might still desert them. You might get tactical voting to stop SNP candidates by voting for the strongest alternative.

I have never voted Tory in my life but if I were in Scotland I would rather vote Tory than SNP.

The scots are going to vote SNP in droves, if you want more investment in Scotland, it's a no brainer given the very unique situation. No other party offers the golden opportunity of holding the balance of power in Scotish hands. Labours cocked their scottish chances up royally and in turn, I suspect, cocked up the chance of creating a one nation labour government fit for everyone.

BobQ

Loughton_Monkey wrote: »

Not sure!

Yes, individuals may well choose to vote tactically, but I suspect they even out most of the time.

More interestingly, we might see 'tactical standing' once the formation of a new government proves impossible, or lasts the proverbial '5 minutes'. What then?

Farage to Cameron: "Stand down your candidate in my constituancy. Promise me XYZ. I'll stand down all UKIP candidates in the marginals."

Labour MP's to Miliband: "Stand down, or we have 40 MP's waiting to join the Liberals."

We could have a whole summer of party elections/general elections.

Maybe. What occurs to me is that if the general spread of votes indicated by the polls is roughly right, there will be many more marginal seats compared to the outcome in the last election.

I doubt we will get "standing down" as such (standing in lots of seats creates entitlement to political broadcasts I think), but what often happens is that in a seat the a main party knows it very unlikely to win they will just not do much campaigning. This may happen more this time.

But it will be fascinating if it is really finely balanced multiple combinations possible after the vote. Last time it was just a two party agreement. This time I imagine the Civil Service are working hard to deal with all the possible scenarios.

BobQ

padington wrote: »

The scots are going to vote SNP in droves, if you want more investment in Scotland, it's a no brainer given the very unique situation. No other party offers the golden opportunity of holding the balance of power in Scotish hands. Labours cocked their scottish chances up royally and in turn, I suspect, cocked up the chance of creating a one nation labour government fit for everyone.

And you think the pro-union half of the Scottish electorate do not appreciate that?

padington

BobQ wrote: »

And you think the pro-union half of the Scottish electorate do not appreciate that?

The polls certainly don't seem to show that they do and the SNP have the momentum and can't see it changing.

enthusiasticsaver

I think it is too close to call and my fear again is that it will be another hung parliament. I really do not want the SNP to hold the balance of power and I am not a staunch conservative voter but am leaning towards them as a preference for a majority or another coalition alongside the lib dems as a second preference. Not keen on Labour and definitely do not want UKIP anywhere near holding any balance of power.