Who will win the UK election ?

Moby

As a Labour activist in London living in a tory held marginal I'm hopeful we can sling the tories out in London at least. Locally, there are more Labour than Tory posters around and I find on the doorstep people are more willing to say if they will vote for us. We have more boots on the ground as well. The tories tend to bus support in from other constituencies and are more organised on the phones and have the funding for glossy leaflets etc. Our fear is the silent tory and I think on election day you can pehaps add a percentage point on their vote to cover for this! The general feeling is we lost the first week due to poor press coverage by the usual suspects but had a better second week because people genuinely don't like the way Miliband has been targeted, (I see his ethnic identity has been noted above and assumptions made that he should therefore be able to rely on the voters who class themselves as having the same ethnic identity). Unbelievable! 'Stabbing his brother in the back' also resonates with some and then we had the 'rodgering red Ed' Daily Fail piece by that pulitzer winning journalist Andrew Pearce.

The thing I notice and is quite scary really is the level of general cynicism on the doorstep. The most said comments are 'they are all the same', 'there is no difference between them'. No outright abuse received as yet but you can usually tell the tory by their failure to look you in the eye;)

The other thing people are noticing is that the tory message has changed in the last couple of days. The attacks on Miliband have stopped and they have suddenly found a load of money to freeze rail fares, put an extra 8 billion a year into the NHS and end inheritance tax for properties worth below 1 M. This is seen as a reaction and not planned.

Having a big party today for the launch of the manifesto and the weather looks good which is a plus.

I don't think anyone really know with 4 weeks left what will happen? The SNP have ruined our chances of a victory I fear. This BBC snippet sums it all up for me so far:-
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32273197

Generali

I think it's going to come down to the SNP and UKIP votes.

I can see Scots voting SNP in large numbers. People have fallen for the nonsense they spout. If they ever deliver FFA tthey're dead for a generation if not forever.

UKIP is a bit more interesting. Voting Tory gives you a referendum on Europe albeit a different one to UKIP's and let's face it, there isn't a huge amount more to UKIP than being against Europe and immigration really. I suspect that in the polling booth outside a couple of constituencies many will hold their noses and vote Tory instead.

Time will tell if my theory holds water. The Tories might not get enough votes/seats to form a Government but I suspect that they're going to be the largest party by more votes than the polls imply.

cepheus

There's quite some time to go yet. As well as their dominant free press propaganda, the Tories have the Royal Baby due in a few weeks, forgot that? A dose of patriotism is always good for the Tories. What timing Eh? Toffs supporting Toffs as usual! On the other hand the Andy Coulson trail is starting around the same time.

Generali

cepheus wrote: »

There's quite some time to go yet. As well as their dominant free press propaganda, the Tories have the Royal Baby due in a few weeks, forgot that? A dose of patriotism is always good for the Tories. What timing Eh? Toffs supporting Toffs as usual! On the other hand the Andy Coulson trail is starting around the same time.

You reckon the timing of the baby is to sway the election? Get help.

Moby

The outcome could be decided in a few swing constituencies but overall I think you are right Generali. The tories will have more constituencies in England. Their problem will then be cobbling together a govmt. Their real hope is that the Lib Dems will hold up enough to form another coalition but that is going to be a hard sell to the Lib Dems because they have been damaged badly by 'getting into bed' with them. Not to forget of course the tories will face a resurgent SNP and a stronger Labour opposition. To be frank although I'm campaigning I don't actually know if this will be good election to win....if it's close that is!

andydiysaver

it'll be hung again - Milliband distances himself from Sturgeon because he wants the lot himself but nobody will get a majority and he's going to be making back room deals with Sturgeon for the just in case scenario he hopes (and I hope!!) doesn't happen...... he's cagey about how much he spends, she's outright candid about how much she would spend...... and the whole get into debt to pay debt culture will happen once again if it comes to pass... and while I think generally the tories are better for business, they would need the lib dems and if there is one stand out serial liar of all of it - it's Clegg - in interview charisma is a different thing entirely than arrogance and lying -a career politician, he treats the electorate with contempt - a bit of TV charisma doesn't alter the fact he's a complete liar and doesn't listen.




I hope Farage is able to make some dents in the establishment because the point must be this: the establishment hasn't felt any real pressure to tell the truth or consult the public for decades now because they know the rest won't either and it's all dodgier than an oligopoly oil cartel price fixing exercise... Whether we agree or not with what Farage represents, it's what he brings that is the point many of the haters miss - such is the rot in the institution, almost anything new challenges it, and that is a much needed thing.

michaels

fordcapri2000 wrote: »

Many countries in Europe are now voting against austerity, the one saving grace for the Tories(if you can call it that) is that he has conned enough people into thinking they are rich.

Just one little property crash and the Trillion plus debt that sits on the back of going **** up and it is anti austerity government UK all they way.

I also get a sneaking suspicion that non of the main parties really want the key to No 10.

I see those voting against austerity as the ones being conned, look at Greece and France, turns out that whatever promises the parties make about being able to ignore reality it turns out it is not possible to forever spend more than is taken in tax nor to increase the tax take indefinitely.

andydiysaver

you can crowdsource the public opinion by using betting site betfair known to the MB people - method I used was to take mid point of odds, do reciprocal on that then fit the small over-round into 1 for perfect probability or at the least best definition of probability with all parties absorbing as much of the over-round as the others...


according to a cross section of the Great British public prepared to put their money where their mouth is as at 8.55am 12/04/15


Lab Minority 32.98%
Con Minoiry 22.17%
Conservative 11.34%
Con-Lib Coal 12.96%
Lib-Lab Coal 9.37%
Labour 3.17%
Con-Ukip Coal 1.38%
Any other 6.65%


clearly this is subject to change...


Lab Minority32.98%Con Minoiry22.17%Conservative11.34%Con-Lib Coal12.96%Lib-Lab Coal9.37%Labour3.17%Con-Ukip Coal1.38%Any other 6.65%

andydiysaver

..which currently points to milliband in no10 which is a complete disaster if so.. and I recommend anyone trying to get a mortgage does so before the outcome because regardless of status the industry will panic .... , he doesn't know what he is doing - he just wants to get in

michaels

andydiysaver wrote: »

you can crowdsource the public opinion by using betting site betfair known to the MB people - method I used was to take mid point of odds, do reciprocal on that then fit the small over-round into 1 for perfect probability or at the least best definition of probability with all parties absorbing as much of the over-round as the others...


according to a cross section of the Great British public prepared to put their money where their mouth is as at 8.55am 12/04/15


Lab Minority 32.98%
Con Minoiry 22.17%
Conservative 11.34%
Con-Lib Coal 12.96%
Lib-Lab Coal 9.37%
Labour 3.17%
Con-Ukip Coal 1.38%
Any other 6.65%


clearly this is subject to change...


Lab Minority32.98%Con Minoiry22.17%Conservative11.34%Con-Lib Coal12.96%Lib-Lab Coal9.37%Labour3.17%Con-Ukip Coal1.38%Any other 6.65%

This is an interesting one. In general where people put their money turns out to be a good predictor but this has not been the case with political betting (famously betfair odds were forecasting a tory outright victory last time).

In theory you might also expect the market to be biased by affected people 'hedging' their exposure to possible results, in the uk that should equate to high earners betting against the tories to cover likely losses were labour to be elected but if history is any guide the betting markets tend to err towards the right.