Salmond and Sturgeon Want the English Fish for More Fat Subsidies

CLAPTON

Moby wrote: »

Totally agree with your analysis. Call me Dave needs to tread very carefully if he wants to keep the union. Ireland is a good example of this. Despite the troubles and few natural resources they have succeeded in becoming a viable self governing state.

It's very good to see the transformation that NI has undergone since the peace process.
However lets not forget they have a bigger block grant than scotland even if some is in recognition of the security costs.
NI will vote to leave the UK only when the demographics are right.

Moby

ruggedtoast wrote: »

IMO the real risk for the Union is the government. David Cameron is showing every sign that he is going to make an even bigger !!!! up out of the EU referendum than he did with Scotref.

Scotref, where our leader ruled himself out of showing any leadership at all, then fiddled about in the sidelines infuriating everyone to the point where a sure thing became a nearish miss preceded by desperate pleading and followed by unbearable smug arrogance. Which led to an immediate resurgence in nationalism.

I predict Cameron will stuff up the EU referendum, manage to infuriate the Scots even more, make a total balls up of preparing for Brexit and there may well be another Scottish Referendum before 2020.

This is the worst government we have had in decades, they cant manage any of the big issues and the free ride they are getting from the (Tory owned) media is unbelievable.

Call me Dave lacks political nous when it comes to the big decisions but like you say as a govmt they are protected by the media moguls, the establishment and a split opposition. His modus operandi is defined by the need to avoid terminal splits within the tory party. We have a stinking reputation for continual carping in Europe over our 'issues'.

Moby

CLAPTON wrote: »

It's very good to see the transformation that NI has undergone since the peace process.
However lets not forget they have a bigger block grant than scotland even if some is in recognition of the security costs.
NI will vote to leave the UK only when the demographics are right.

I'm talking about Eire Clapton.

CLAPTON

Moby wrote: »

I'm talking about Eire Clapton.

normally the 'troubles' is used to refer to NI.

I haven't seen the stats for 2015 but in 2014 there was net emigration from Eire: not what is usually associate with a booming economy.

Generali

Moby wrote: »

I'm talking about Eire Clapton.

Is he the Irish bloke that was in Cream?

Shakethedisease

Ipsos Mori/STV. Still real disconnect going on between online and telephone/face to face pollsters re EU/any future Scottish referendums. And I think they've got far too many 'certain to vote'. But anyway..

Almost 60% of Scots would vote to quit the United Kingdom if Britain leaves the European Union, a new poll finds.The survey commissioned by STV News shows strong Scottish support for Britain’s continuing membership of the EU and suggests a correlation between splitting from Brussels and increased backing for independence.

The research also finds a towering lead for the SNP ahead of May's Holyrood election and firm opposition to raising income tax.
Some 62% of Scots are inclined to support the remain campaign in the EU referendum, 26% expect to support the leave effort and 12% say they don’t know.

Across the nation as a whole, 55% of Britons will vote to stay while 36% will endorse Brexit, with 9% putting themselves down as don’t knows.

If a second independence referendum were held tomorrow, without any change in Britain’s relationship to the EU, 49% of Scots would cast their ballot for Yes, 45% for No and 5% said they didn't know. With don’t knows stripped out, 52% of Scots back independence while 48% oppose it.

http://news.stv.tv/politics/1342223-stephen-daisley-finds-58-of-scots-would-back-independence-if-uk-quits-eu/

Edit Mike Smithson with the lastest ICM poll re the EU.

Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 5 mins5 minutes ago Leave takes lead for 1st time in ICM #EURef online tracker REMAIN 41 (-1) LEAVE 42 (+3) DK 17 This is 1st ICM since last week's Cameron deal

CLAPTON

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Ipsos Mori/STV. Still real disconnect going on between online and telephone/face to face pollsters re EU/any future Scottish referendums. And I think they've got far too many 'certain to vote'. But anyway..

http://news.stv.tv/politics/1342223-stephen-daisley-finds-58-of-scots-would-back-independence-if-uk-quits-eu/

looking good for May and the single party state
but the margin for YES is too fine for Nicola to risk that as a third referendum is unlikely

Shakethedisease

CLAPTON wrote: »

looking good for May and the single party state
but the margin for YES is too fine for Nicola to risk that as a third referendum is unlikely

Early days yet for referendum plans. Scottish Labour still have to wake up to changed times. May might finally shake them out of their 'it'll all be back to normal soon' delusion. Is only a matter of time before some will break ranks about getting behind 'Home Rule' or full independence.

Generali

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/xqh3y5ghb2/TimesResults_JanFeb16_ScotlandVI_Leaders_Tax_Fracking_Refugees_Website.pdf

You Gov have:

Yes: 43%
No: 51%

It's worth noting that 88% of Labour voters have said that they will vote No so not much mileage in Labour policy converting to Yes as they simply lose their core (I think Labour are effectively a dead party only propped up by the unions and the state: without money and a guaranteed billing on the news they would be like the old Liberal Party but that's a different conversation).

Anyhoo, excluding DKs and wouldn't votes it's......45:55, exactly the same as the actual referendum which kinda makes sense. If after all that shilly-shallying you hadn't decided which way to vote, chances are you don't care or never will.

Interestingly, the people who tend to vote in large numbers (A, B & C1) are hugely in favour of staying in the union: 41:59. Those that are generally uneducated or earn most or all of their income from the state are still in favour of staying in the union but with a closer split (49:51, in fact within the margin of error so they may even support independence).

According to the same poll, Scots are in favour of the SNP (presumably) using the new powers of taxation to increase income taxes in 2017 to pay for improved services although not for more welfare. It is worth noting that all through the 80s people told pollsters the same thing and then voted for lower taxes by voting Tory.

Neck and neck between the Tories and Lab for second. Another nail in the coffin for the myth that people voted for independence to get rid of Tory Governments (only 10% of Yessers did so or c. 4% of Scots).

baldelectrician

subbing...