Salmond and Sturgeon Want the English Fish for More Fat Subsidies

Leanne1812

Mistermeaner wrote: »

4 people separately replied to your ridiculous comment within 15mins of each other, saying broadly the same thing. I dont think you like being made to to look daft.

And I have responded. As I am happy to do with anyone wishing to have a reasonable conversation. With you that seems quite impossible. Carry on though with your little digs & insults just don't be too upset when I ignore them.

Leanne1812

Generali wrote: »

In the short term, North Sea oil probably doesn't need any support beyond what has been given. The thing with offshore drilling is that AIUI these are very long term projects and you can't just turn them off and on. Also, while operating costs are pretty high, the really big expense is up front. That money remains spent regardless of the oil price.

The big problem that North Sea oil faces is longer term. As I've written before, the collapse in the costs and lead times for unconventional oil means that the oil market is going to look more like the one for potatoes or corn and less like the one for copper or iron ore.

'Hard commodity' markets (oil, coal, iron, gold) tend to feast or famine. The reason? It takes ages to get a mine going and so prices can stay high because you can't just turn supply on and off.

'Soft commodity' markets tend to have much more stable prices. If the price of corn rises, farmers will plant more of it the following year and push prices back down. Supply can react far more quickly to demand. Yes, you can have occasional spikes such as the one a few years ago caused by so much of the world's corn production being pushed towards bio fuels. However these have always been temporary events.

Unconventional oil is increasingly fast and cheap to get out of the ground. As the oil price rises, supply can react quickly now. That will smooth the price and also keep prices low. Short of a major war or other cataclysmic event we will never see prices of oil high again, unless we actually start to run short of the stuff.

Thanks for that Gen, while I do take on board what you say I still remain optimistic that conventional oil will still need to be extracted for quite some time yet & remain a vital industry.

Thrugelmir

Leanne1812 wrote: »

I'm mainly talking about how our political landscape has changed post ref. None of us could foresee what would happen.

Landscapes are shaped by the weather. Constantly changing over time. Erosion being unavoidable.

CLAPTON

Leanne1812 wrote: »

Thanks for that Gen, while I do take on board what you say I still remain optimistic that conventional oil will still need to be extracted for quite some time yet & remain a vital industry.

we, the people of the UK are better off with low oil prices:
why do you wish us harm?

Thrugelmir

Leanne1812 wrote: »

Thanks for that Gen, while I do take on board what you say I still remain optimistic that conventional oil will still need to be extracted for quite some time yet & remain a vital industry.

No one is suggesting that it's going to disappear. However capex is being cut to keep the oil majors afloat and maintain positive cash flows. Iran despite increasing production by 500,000 barrels a day now the export ban has been lifted. Is still producing a 1 million barrels less than it was in 2011. Still some rebalancing of world influence yet to take place.

Generali

Leanne1812 wrote: »

Thanks for that Gen, while I do take on board what you say I still remain optimistic that conventional oil will still need to be extracted for quite some time yet & remain a vital industry.

The existing wells aren't going to be scrapped. The problem the whole of the North Sea industry will face in future will be the current lack of investment leading into a future wind down of the industry compared to current levels.

It would probably be a good time to sell the BTL place in Oslo.

Mistermeaner

Leanne1812 wrote: »

Thanks for that Gen, while I do take on board what you say I still remain optimistic that conventional oil will still need to be extracted for quite some time yet & remain a vital industry.

I don't want to sound like I'm attacking you but Christ Leanne your outlook is weird. You start by saying you would like to give the oil industry a helping hand (why I'm still not sure; I did ask but you didn't answer).

I also don't understand why on earth you remain optimistic that oil prices will rise - that generally won't be good for the vast majority of the world and UK and also just increases the case for tracking that you say you are against....

If I understand you correctly you want to use public money to subsidise north sea oil and are hopeful prices will rise, you are against fracking which would attract billions of investment without any public subsidy and support the existing refining infrastructure in Scotland (without the need for north sea oil) and you also want independence from the diverse economy of the UK and the subsidies this brings to Scotland.

In a nut shell you want to absolutely destroy the country you live in and impoverish its people for years to come.

I apologise sincerely if you find it insulting but I find your outlook bizarre; I think it's based on your ignorance rather than malice though.

Shakethedisease

CLAPTON wrote: »

we, the people of the UK are better off with low oil prices:
why do you wish us harm?

Oil is just one of a number of industries throughout UK history that go through painful corrections when they start to become unprofitable over the long term. Coal, steel, shipbuilding, car plants etc etc. The UK economy would have been unimaginable without any of the above in 1980. Things move on. And economies correct with them.

There seems to be little in the way of Scotland 'correcting' other than derision from Westminster over the fact there are no powers to 'correct' things and move on. Most of us in Scotland, really do now, want to move on from any sort of real or perceived over reliance on it. Economically it's not sensible ( of course).. and politically ( the perceived part )... most are switching off as soon as it's mentioned. ie Everyone in Scotland 'knows' that the oil price is bad, and that Scotland is facing a big black hole/doom/Greece/ yadda yadda yadda... They'll vote SNP regardless. Take from that what you like.

Across the UK at least low oil prices ( as opposed to revenues to Treasury coffers ) have a flip side.

CLAPTON

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Oil is just one of a number of industries throughout UK history that go through painful corrections when they start to become unprofitable over the long term. Coal, steel, shipbuilding, car plants etc etc. The UK economy would have been unimaginable without any of the above in 1980. Things move on. And economies correct with them.

There seems to be little in the way of Scotland 'correcting' other than derision from Westminster over the fact there are no powers to 'correct' things and move on. Most of us in Scotland, really do now, want to move on from any sort of real or perceived over reliance on it. Economically it's not sensible ( of course).. and politically ( the perceived part )... most are switching off as soon as it's mentioned. ie Everyone in Scotland 'knows' that the oil price is bad, and that Scotland is facing a big black hole/doom/Greece/ yadda yadda yadda... They'll vote SNP regardless. Take from that what you like.

Across the UK at least low oil prices ( as opposed to revenues to Treasury coffers ) have a flip side.

I read it several times and I've no idea what you are trying to say
(although I think it implies you think scotland woulde be better off without the english)

Shakethedisease

Generali wrote: »

The existing wells aren't going to be scrapped. The problem the whole of the North Sea industry will face in future will be the current lack of investment leading into a future wind down of the industry compared to current levels.

It would probably be a good time to sell the BTL place in Oslo.

London too, if that bubble pops again. And there are gathering clouds there too aren't there ?

Context is everything. There is a distinct lack of it, when it comes to Scotland and oil... compared with the Bank of England absolutely terrified to raise interest rates even by the tinyest of margins in case it causes another UK wide recession. Bizarre. Scotland has nowhere near that particular 'over reliance' going on.