Salmond and Sturgeon Want the English Fish for More Fat Subsidies

Tromking

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

I am probably the most ardent supporter of Scotland staying within the Union on this board and my support for that is based primarily on the economic benefits.

It would be just as mad for the UK to leave Europe as it would be for Scotland to leave the UK however.... So at that point all bets would be off.

Scotland outwith the UK today would suffer a radically lower standard of living and a lot of needless pain.

Unemployment would soar, people's incomes and wealth would decline, and their taxes and cost of living would rise.

But if the UK left the EU we'd all suffer that fate.

At that point the choice between staying and leaving is far less clear cut.

Even for me...

On balance I`m with you on the UK and the EU, although I think I can still be persuaded to go the other way.
The UK within the EU is not the same as Scotland within the UK. The UK is the second largest economy within the EU and is one of only a few net contributors to the EU budget, not for the UK an immediate financial black hole at Brexit that the Scots would enjoy if they jettison themselves from the rUk.
There`s a deal to made between the Eurozone and the UK, although I fear its going to a take vote for Brexit and a second hastily arranged referendum before the real concessions are offered to the UK.

elantan

Generali wrote: »

Imagine Scots people voting Tory. At this rate Scotland will have to leave Scotland, innit.

Voting Tory isn't the end of the world ... I'm not sure why you would think it is tbh

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Tromking wrote: »

The UK within the EU is not the same as Scotland within the UK.

It is exactly the same.

The UK is the second largest economy within the EU and is one of only a few net contributors to the EU budget, not for the UK an immediate financial black hole at Brexit that the Scots would enjoy if they jettison themselves from the rUk.

The UK is only as successful as we are because of our EU membership.

Just as Scotland is only as successful as we are because we are part of the UK.

In either 'leave' scenario I'd expect a rapid descent into recession, budgetary shortfalls, and mass unemployment.

There`s a deal to made between the Eurozone and the UK, although I fear its going to a take vote for Brexit and a second hastily arranged referendum before the real concessions are offered to the UK.

There are no re-runs. Voting to leave is a one-way ticket.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

elantan wrote: »

Voting Tory isn't the end of the world ... I'm not sure why you would think it is tbh

Why do you find Ruth's increasing popularity a "bit concerning" then?

Tromking

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

It is exactly the same.



The UK is only as successful as we are because of our EU membership.

Just as Scotland is only as successful as we are because we are part of the UK.

In either 'leave' scenario I'd expect a rapid descent into recession, budgetary shortfalls, and mass unemployment.



There are no re-runs. Voting to leave is a one-way ticket.

The UK`s ability to survive outside the EU is one of the key arguments to come, I`m not so sure its as clear cut as you make out.
Scotland isn't successful, its currently subsidised by the more successful parts of the UK. Although I get the EU ethos of the more wealthy nations building up the less wealthy ones and thus creating markets for their own products in the future, again I`m not convinced that the worlds fourth or fifth biggest economy would descend into the basket case scenario you describe.
The widespread panic caused by a vote for Brexit makes a second referendum inevitable in my opinion, the Eurocrats have form in this regard.

mwpt

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

I am probably the most ardent supporter of Scotland staying within the Union on this board and my support for that is based primarily on the economic benefits.

It would be just as mad for the UK to leave Europe as it would be for Scotland to leave the UK however.... So at that point all bets would be off.

Scotland outwith the UK today would suffer a radically lower standard of living and a lot of needless pain.

Unemployment would soar, people's incomes and wealth would decline, and their taxes and cost of living would rise.

But if the UK left the EU we'd all suffer that fate.

At that point the choice between staying and leaving is far less clear cut.

Even for me...

Yes but the nationalists posting on this thread have already said they'd be ok with a decline in living standards. So they've already decided on your behalf to make you poorer. But at least they'll be free.

Shakethedisease

Generali wrote: »

Hmm. Not very forthcoming about their methodology are they?

This prediction is only for constituency seats, not the additional list seats ( PR system ). Remember to take that into account the anytime Holyrood seats are mentioned. It's a different system.

On current polling the SNP look likely to win the vast majority of the 73 FPTP seats, much as they did in the Westminster Election in May. The proportional top-up should then ensure that the list seats are fairly divided amongst the parties. Even if the SNP get the highest number of list votes, it is likely they won’t win any list seats, because the of the ‘top-up’ nature of the system.

That is unless, as happened in North East Scotland, the list vote is so high that the SNP squeeze in there as well. In 2011 the percentage vote share on the list for the SNP was 52.7%. They are polling 54% on the list, which suggests they could win a few list seats as well as constituency seats in some regions.

Our high-level model, using a uniform swing, has the SNP winning 71 of the 73 constituency seats next May - 97% of the seats on about 62% of the constituency vote. The Lib Dems and the Conservatives pick up one each, while the Labour party with 20% of the constituency vote would win no seats.
- See more at: http://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/blog/are-snp-about-break-holyrood-voting-system-again#sthash.E0kUvfKe.dpuf

Shakethedisease

Tromking wrote: »

The thought of a post Brexit indyref and Scotland still voting to stay within the worlds most successful Union is immense. I love how the Nats think it would be an absolute given that Scotland would choose to leave if the wider UK voted for Brexit. Cue another meaningless poll from Shakey!😀

ICM and a 10,000 person poll from Survnation are 'meaningless polls' :eek:.. oh well if it makes you feel better. I'm sure they'll be happy to hear that.

Shakethedisease

Rinoa wrote: »

You are very adept at missing the point, and raising one we weren't discussing, in every reply.

We were discussing lies. Alex Salmond and the SNP deliberately overstated Scotland's prospects on oil.

No, we were discussing whether Salmond got them wrong like everyone else, or if he deliberately lied.

David Cameron said there was potential but warned of the downsides should the oil price fall.

He 'promised' an oil revolution and investments of 200 bn in the industry. Everyone already knows oil prices rise and fall. That bit wasn't a revelation to anyone.

Shakethedisease

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

It's tremendous isn't it?

You point out where the SNP failed - she changes the topic.

You provide proof - she compares it as being no different to some Labour failure dredged up from a decade ago.

It's almost as if Shakey is determined to establish that the SNP are just as bad as Labour.

I'm not really sure what part of oil price stuff seem to be missing in that everyone had the forecasts wrong. Not just Salmond. That is the point I was making.

And you know that's the case, we all have access to forecasts from round about the time. No one had oil prices falling so far. And indeed, Cameron was headlined promising 200bn's worth of investments and 'booms' all over the place.