Salmond and Sturgeon Want the English Fish for More Fat Subsidies

Shakethedisease

Generali wrote: »

As with monthly changes in house prices, monthly changes in unemployment are generally just noise:

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_412021.pdf

Tell that to Hamish the next time he starts a thread on how Tory policies are making Scotland so much better.

I shall refer him and yourself to your above post and say it's just 'noise' shall I ? Anyway, it's not monthly, it's quarterly. In fact it's the second quarterly rise in unemployment a row...

UK unemployment ticked up to 1.85 million in the April to June period, a rise of 25,000 on the previous quarter.

It is the first time in two years that there have been two consecutive rises in the number of people out of work..

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-33881387

Let's hope that doesn't continue eh ? But the quartely figs were why that daftie MP in question was blaming the SNP and Labour ( uncertainty around the election ). Uncertainty, that doesn't seem to have occurred in Scotland in actual fact..... Where unemployment has fallen rather than risen quarterly. Unlike the rest of the UK.

Can't put my finger on what the difference might be to cause that,..oh wait. That's right. The SNP are in charge there rather than the Tories.

Generali

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Tell that to Hamish the next time he starts a thread on how Tory policies are making Scotland so much better.

I shall refer him and yourself to your above post and say it's just 'noise' shall I ? Anyway, it's not monthly, it's quarterly. In fact it's the second quarterly rise in unemployment a row...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-33881387

Let's hope that doesn't continue eh ? But the quartely figs were why that daftie MP in question was blaming the SNP and Labour ( uncertainty around the election ). Uncertainty, that doesn't seem to have occurred in Scotland in actual fact..... Where unemployment has fallen rather than risen quarterly. Unlike the rest of the UK.

Can't put my finger on what the difference might be to cause that,..oh wait. That's right. The SNP are in charge there rather than the Tories.

Let's hope that changes in unemployment aren't statistically significant? I hope that they continue to fall under the very responsible financial stewardship of the Conservative party.

As the ONS says, the thing to look at with unemployment figures is the trend which shows unemployment continuing to fall despite a fall in the number of public sector workers and has done for many years.

In a few short years the deficit will be under control properly and real wages seem to have turned the corner at last so people are getting richer. Increaases in the minimum wage will make work pay for more families.

Who knows, if things keep improving like this perhaps even a few more Scots will vote Tory. After all, Scottish people used to vote Conservative in large numbers.

wotsthat

Generali wrote: »

Who knows, if things keep improving like this perhaps even a few more Scots will vote Tory. After all, Scottish people used to vote Conservative in large numbers.

Also an improving economy probably isn't good news for the SNP because more voters will have something to lose if there's another referendum. I'd expect a push towards an early referendum before the economy improves 'too much' and the electorate tire of being told good things are down to the SNP and bad things are down to Westminster.

Generali

wotsthat wrote: »

Also an improving economy probably isn't good news for the SNP because more voters will have something to lose if there's another referendum. I'd expect a push towards an early referendum before the economy improves 'too much' and the electorate tire of being told good things are down to the SNP and bad things are down to Westminster.

Especially if the Saudis keep the spigots open. A fiscally autonomous Scottish economy is effectively a reflection of the oil price and that just keeps on dropping.

Brent Crude is below $50/bbl and West Texas Intermediate futures are barely trading above $42/bbl

The picture for independence looks very different when the UK is running a small or no deficit and the huge fiscal transfer to Scotland is put into even sharper relief.

I suppose a failing Scotland, due to a dropping oil price, with a highly successful England can be blamed on Westminster still. Fracking is likely to bring huge economic benefits to England while the SNP seems to want to ban it in Scotland.

Thrugelmir

Generali wrote: »

Especially if the Saudis keep the spigots open. A fiscally autonomous Scottish economy is effectively a reflection of the oil price and that just keeps on dropping.

Saudis need the income so whatever the price they'll keep on pumping it out the ground. At a production cost of $6 a barrel. They know that other players will be forced to fold in their hands.

Seems as if Iran will be coming back on stream soon. Pushes back the possibility of a significant price increase even more.

Oil futures also fell to a 6 and half year low this morning on the London market.

Generali

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Saudis need the income so whatever the price they'll keep on pumping it out the ground. At a production cost of $6 a barrel. They know that other players will be forced to fold in their hands.

Seems as if Iran will be coming back on stream soon. Pushes back the possibility of a significant price increase even more.

Oil futures also fell to a 6 and half year low this morning on the London market.

$6 bbl to get oil out from under the sands of Saudi Arabia vs $80+/- to get the oil out of the North Sea.

As I've said before the Saudis seem to have come to the conclusion that oil will have little value in 40 years time so best to pump it now while it has. The Saudis can destroy the Scottish oil pumping industry in a decade although as a caveat I'd say that Aberdeen could (does?) act as an oil expertise centre in the same way as the City acts as a banking expertise centre.

Thrugelmir

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Well there is paying off the deficit. And then there's the means and who suffers most financially doing so. I don't think the Tories are off to a particularly good start with that.

I've yet to see any substantive alternatives. Suggestions to cut more slowly or borrow more are ideas from people who've no ideas. Simply fingers in the air and hope.

cells

Generali wrote: »

$6 bbl to get oil out from under the sands of Saudi Arabia vs $80+/- to get the oil out of the North Sea.

As I've said before the Saudis seem to have come to the conclusion that oil will have little value in 40 years time so best to pump it now while it has. The Saudis can destroy the Scottish oil pumping industry in a decade although as a caveat I'd say that Aberdeen could (does?) act as an oil expertise centre in the same way as the City acts as a banking expertise centre.

revenue is more important than quantity if you can control quantity

Its better for Saudi to sell $35 trillion worth of oil over 10 years than to sell $35 trillion of oil over 30 years at 1/3rd the price

either saudi believes it cant control quantity (ie the other big opec and non opec, especially russia, wont play ball) or its hurting its income to hurts its foes more than itself

It doesn't have anything to do with oil being worthless in 30 years time. even if that were true there would be no reason to devalue it now


also getting oil out of the north sea is a lot less than $80 cost.
seeing as taxes are ~80% even at $100 oil that means the companies were pumping and making a good profit in the north sea with just $20 going to themselves to pay for everything. Its probably more like $10 cost plus taxes and the "plus taxes" bit can and will be reduced towards zero when oils eventual decline truly arrives (in 31 years time )

Shakethedisease

Generali wrote: »

Let's hope that changes in unemployment aren't statistically significant? I hope that they continue to fall under the very responsible financial stewardship of the Conservative party.

As the ONS says, the thing to look at with unemployment figures is the trend which shows unemployment continuing to fall despite a fall in the number of public sector workers and has done for many years.

In a few short years the deficit will be under control properly and real wages seem to have turned the corner at last so people are getting richer. Increaases in the minimum wage will make work pay for more families.

Who knows, if things keep improving like this perhaps even a few more Scots will vote Tory. After all, Scottish people used to vote Conservative in large numbers.

No, I said lets hope the unemployment figures don't keep rising in the UK for the next few quarters. But on the other hand, at least we won't have to suffer any more of Hamish's 'wow the Tories are doing so well for Scotland' (lets not mention it's a shame things are tanking elsewhere ) type posts for a bit hopefully. Like you say, most of it is 'just noise' and 'trends'. I'll be sure to point that out to him next time, citing yourself and the ONS.

And I doubt the Tory vote will go up much in Scotland for the forseeable. Even during the Thatcher years Scotland stayed resolutely Labour despite it all. There's no reason to think that the Tories will benefit from their 'wonderful policies' ( which many don't actually see are particularly great ). Not up in here

ps the Tory party didn't exist in Scotland until 1966..Before that it was a Scottish stand alone party. After 1966 the Tories were all but wiped from the Scottish map in 1997. And didn't so so well throughout the 1980's either.

Some things are a bit ironic though..Seems the Scottish Tory equivalent back then weren't keen on Westminster at all.

pre -1966

Being an independent Scottish party also drew electoral appeal when set against the threat of a London-based centralising British Labour party. A crucial aspect to this, particularly in the 1940s and 1950s, was the ability to place an 'alien' identity upon Labour by successfully using the term 'Socialist' to describe the Labour Party.[1]

This distinctively Scottish appeal was further strengthened when combined with opposition to the Labour party's post-war nationalisation programme, which centralised control (in London) of former Scottish owned businesses and council-run services.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unionist_Party_%28Scotland%29

elantan

I see those nasty nationalists that hate the English have crowd funded for a person in Manchester to help with their fine ... bad bad bad people