Salmond and Sturgeon Want the English Fish for More Fat Subsidies

CLAPTON

Generali wrote: »

It's looking increasingly like it is:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/generalelection/general-election-2015-sixty-per-cent-of-people-want-voting-reform-says-survey-10224354.html

The 15-20% of people voting UKIP and Green will get 5 seats between them if they're lucky whilst the 10% voting Lib Dem might get 20 seats.. Then the 4-5% of people voting SNP could get 50 seats or even more.

It's clearly farcical.

In the days when Lab or Cons were getting 40+% of the votes to form a Government, that was pretty reasonable. Yes, minor parties were under-represented but the Government was getting a clear enough mandate or at least an accepted one.

When you have a 5 or 6 party system FPTP simply doesn't work any more. I think British politics has fundamentally changed and the voting system will have to change with it.

I am of a more cautious nature and would wish to wait and see.

I am not sure that British politics has fundamentally changed : once Scotland goes its own way, I am unconvinced the a small Welsh party and a few ragbag NI politicians plus a one shot party like UKIP will really fundamentally change UK politics.


The danger as always is the rush to draw silly conclusions.

IveSeenTheLight

CLAPTON wrote: »

so basically you don't actually know whether it is so or not

Your right, I have not researches directly myself other than looking at how the electorate vote is split and there has not for a very long time been a majority government in terms of votes received.

I see Generali gave a link supporting the move towards PR

CLAPTON wrote: »

the AV referendum was defeated by the votes of the people: even in Scotland

maybe people will change their mind or maybe not..

Oh Come now, the AV referendum was a hogwash of an option that nobody wanted.

Why not offer true PR?

CLAPTON wrote: »

Interesting you think that there is wonderful merit in the SNP being consistent in their support for PR even when not to their advantage
but don't think there is merit in the Tories / Labour being consistent in their support for FPTP even when not to their advantage

But FPTP is to the benefit of the Two Party system
They can get a majority of seats, but without the majority of the votes.
Just as the SNP are polling for now.

SNP are being fair in their inclusion of PR in their manifest, but the two Dinosaur Unionists fear it as it will mean they are extremely unlikely to be able to get a majority.

CLAPTON wrote: »

but I guess the key difference one is scottish and so is good axiomatically and the other non-scottish so is axiomatically bad and evil.

Nothing to do which location you are from, just one party understanding it is to the benefit of the electorate, and others which do not consider the electorates views

CLAPTON wrote: »

One notes the Scottish system wasn't introduced by the vote of the people but by Westminster politicians

Designed to try and stop any party getting a majority in Scotland.
Looks like they failed their too

IveSeenTheLight

CLAPTON wrote: »

I am of a more cautious nature and would wish to wait and see.

I am not sure that British politics has fundamentally changed : once Scotland goes its own way, I am unconvinced the a small Welsh party and a few ragbag NI politicians plus a one shot party like UKIP will really fundamentally change UK politics.


The danger as always is the rush to draw silly conclusions.

You're not advocating British Politics though are you?

You are dismissing the Scottish, Welsh and Northern Irish electorate.

Why do you "hate" the preferences of these electorates?

I guess UKIP are growing as disharmony grows within the established main parties and disharmony within the British (minus Scots, Welsh and NI as you put it) political system

Generali

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

I see Generali gave a link supporting the move towards PR

Oh Come now, the AV referendum was a hogwash of an option that nobody wanted.

Why not offer true PR?



But FPTP is to the benefit of the Two Party system
They can get a majority of seats, but without the majority of the votes.
Just as the SNP are polling for now.

SNP are being fair in their inclusion of PR in their manifest, but the two Dinosaur Unionists fear it as it will mean they are extremely unlikely to be able to get a majority.


Nothing to do which location you are from, just one party understanding it is to the benefit of the electorate, and others which do not consider the electorates views



Designed to try and stop any party getting a majority in Scotland.
Looks like they failed their too

I've made a bit of a hash of editing your post to reply but I'd like to see a sort of double PR: you vote for a constituency MP and separately you vote for a party. Seats are split 50:50 between constituency and party list MPs.

Maybe then add a bonus (as in Greece) for the party that gets the most votes to add a bit of stability into the system.

FPTP is great if you basically have 2 parties: you turn an effective majority into a stable Government and indeed we've seen it work very well through the C20th.

These days, the vote is fragmenting and it simply isn't reasonable to say to 40% of the population your vote doesn't get you a Government and doesn't even get you into opposition.

Short term ending FPTP is bad for the Tories as the left wing vote is far more fragmented than the right. Long term however, what's good for democracy is good for democratic parties.

.string.

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

If Labour is the minority government, then they need to learn how to operate as a minority government.

That means working with all partied in order to gain enough for a majority consensus.

It means that they have to negotiate.

Yup - with anyone but the SNP.

IveSeenTheLight

Just looking at the Polls, Could the Conservatives get a coalition with UKIP and the Lib/ Dems?

Generali

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Just looking at the Polls, Could the Conservatives get a coalition with UKIP and the Lib/ Dems?

I think UKIP will be lucky to get 2 seats.

There is likely to be a swing towards the Tories at the last minute as people tend to vote for the status quo. I also have a nagging feeling that this election is a bit like 1992 where people are lying to the pollsters, in England at least.

People are embarrassed to admit they're voting Tory/Labour so say they're voting UKIP or Green or undecided (there are apparently huge numbers of undecideds still).

I think there's going to be a last minute move away from Green and UKIP at the last moment. I reckon a lot of Greens will end up with the Lib Dems so they might do a little better than expected. As for UKIP? Well 'everyone knows' that UKIP takes votes from the Tories so if the Tories can get UKIP supporters back then there's a landslide in waiting.

Trouble is it ain't necessarily so. I reckon UKIP is the party of the disaffected white skilled working class (C1 and C2s, aka White Van Man only a bit older). UKIP supporters, assuming they don't vote UKIP, could end up deciding the election. I just wonder if the Tory referendum on the EU is enough or whether Kippers just simply hate foreigners coming to England (and let's face it, they are an English party).

CLAPTON

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

You're not advocating British Politics though are you?

You are dismissing the Scottish, Welsh and Northern Irish electorate.

Why do you "hate" the preferences of these electorates?

I guess UKIP are growing as disharmony grows within the established main parties and disharmony within the British (minus Scots, Welsh and NI as you put it) political system

I thought you joined me in assuming that Scotland will leave the union?
Have you changed your mind?

Why do you think that the NI parties and Plaid Cymru would be better off under a PR system?

I have no strong view on which voting system we should have but knee jerk reaction to a rather unique situation is rather silly.

IveSeenTheLight

CLAPTON wrote: »

I thought you joined me in assuming that Scotland will leave the union?
Have you changed you mind?

I see no relevance in what this thread and election on Thursday is about.

Scotland will not leave the union until there is a significant shift in the country.

Time to move on Clapton and stop living in the past and in fear.

CLAPTON wrote: »

Why do you think that the NI parties and Plaid Cymru would be better off under a PR system?

To be honest, I've not looked closely at their policies as it does not impact me.
They certainly seem to be campaining for it and have it in their manifesto's.
I'll leave it to them to decide what is best for their electorate

CLAPTON wrote: »

I have no strong view on which voting system we should have but knee jerk reaction to a rather unique situation is rather silly.

It's not a knee jerk reaction, it's a growing one.
It's been growing in Scotland from some time now.
We've seen a 2010 election which resulted in a coalition.
We're likely to see a 2015 which cannot attain a coalition
We've seen minority party support increasing

Unless the two main parties can unite the country with the policies and fairness, then your likely to continue to see the dilution amongst the parties spread further.

This was the map the last coalition, note how evenly spread the parties are across the UK


Here is the 2010 Election


And finally the latest polling map


Why are the main parties no longer appealing across the nation?

CLAPTON

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

I see no relevance in what this thread and election on Thursday is about.

Scotland will not leave the union until there is a significant shift in the country.

Time to move on Clapton and stop living in the past and in fear.



To be honest, I've not looked closely at their policies as it does not impact me.
They certainly seem to be campaining for it and have it in their manifesto's.
I'll leave it to them to decide what is best for their electorate




It's not a knee jerk reaction, it's a growing one.
It's been growing in Scotland from some time now.
We've seen a 2010 election which resulted in a coalition.
We're likely to see a 2015 which cannot attain a coalition
We've seen minority party support increasing

Unless the two main parties can unite the country with the policies and fairness, then your likely to continue to see the dilution amongst the parties spread further.

This was the map the last coalition, note how evenly spread the parties are across the UK


Here is the 2010 Election


And finally the latest polling map


Why are the main parties no longer appealing across the nation?

I don't really see any trend except in Scotland which seems to be becoming a one party state.

I would see that 'trend' reversing sometime but the honeymoon period needs to run its course first.

The reason the main parties don't appeal in Scotland is the rising tide of nationalism.