Salmond and Sturgeon Want the English Fish for More Fat Subsidies

Generali

Shakethedisease wrote: »

A coalition was ruled out months ago. I have no idea what you are bumping your gums about to be honest. Have you really been under the impression for the last few months that the SNP are looking for a coalition with Labour as part of govt, and vice versa ? With the SNP in cabinet posts ? Seriously ?

If that really is the case, you've got some serious catching up to do. I wouldn't post much more on this topic..I think you might be sadly far too out of touch with what's going on.

I'm beginning to think that some on this thread just skim through without reading much of it.. in order to agree with whatever Hamish posts up..

Do you really think that the SNP would enter a confidence and supply deal in return merely for not having a Tory Government? That's very naive.

Shakethedisease

Leanne1812 wrote: »

Right now, after listening to the debate I feel like the No vote equates to no democracy for Scotland

I wouldn't worry too much Leanne... Miliband holding a gun to his own head shouting 'Don't vote SNP, vote Labour or we'll let the Tories in'.. isn't a particularly effective message in Scotland at the moment.

And he backtracked anyway, saying he meant a coalition or confidence and supply ( which most of us know wasn't going to happen anyway ).

A bit of a shame that it's the first message that's being reported front page in all the Scottish newspapers and media though. :eek:..........;)

Shakethedisease

Generali wrote: »

Do you really think that the SNP would enter a confidence and supply deal in return merely for not having a Tory Government? That's very naive.

Vote by vote basis Generali. That's what the SNP want. It keeps Labour in power, but not fully in control. All any of the smaller parties have to do, or could do if they wished.. is to keep Labour in via specific confidence votes, but oppose any legislation without their preferred amendments. Or even the chance to negotiate on them. It won't bring a Labour government down.

Either that or abstain and let the Tories ( with possibly a larger number of MP's ) decide. * evil laugh *

Tory 290, Labour 280, SNP 45... what happens when the SNP abstain ? <-- a simplistic example in which I've excluded other parties to make my point.
I've explained this already on the election thread and here the Fixed Term Parliament Act. You obviously didn't read the consequences of it. Trident was a 'red line' re a confidence and supply deal for SNP. No-one was expecting one to actually happen.

Again, I think you have some serious catching up to do. I don't think you've fully grasped the whole picture or the consequences of the SNP being the third largest party. Even without any deals. Whatever happens, if the polls play out the SNP will put Labour in No 10. Nothing surer. But without a majority, they may need their numbers to pass what Labour wants. If they abstain, then it's Labour v's the Tories.. with the Tories possibly having more seats.

If Labour get annoyed and want to dissolve parliament, then they'll need 2/3rd's of the house to agree, or a specific confidence vote. In a specific confidence vote the SNP will simply vote them back in again ( I don't think the 'lock the Tories out' message, is just for May 7th ). It's the Lib Dems/DUP that could be the real kingmakers in actual fact with the numbers so close.

But confidence and supply.. no.. Vote by vote is what's going to happen. Gives the SNP/Plaid/Greens ( who've already formed a loose pact ) far more leeway. And no, I don't think I'm naive. I've just read up a lot on this. Simple arithmetic and FTPA works very well for small parties in Westminster.

(all above speculation based on polls, of which there may be 1000 other outcomes next Thursday ).

ruggedtoast

I suspect there is going to be some humble pie eaten all round on May the 8th. And the eaters will not be used to the taste or the unusual seasoning.

Generali

In your (as usual one-eyed and SNP cheering) posts STD you overlook one highly pertinent fact.

Regardless of what any Act of Parliament states, nobody can force the Labour party to be in Government. If Mr Milliband resigns the Government in your scenario the Queen would then approach Mr Cameron, as leader of the second largest group to ask if he could form a Government. As the SNP have stated repeatedly that they would simply vote down a Tory Government, Mr Cameron would then have to say that he was unable to produce a Government.

I suppose HMQ could then invite Ms Sturgeon to the Palace for a laugh to ask if she could form a Government. When Ms Sturgeon also said she couldn't the Queen would have no alternative but to call an election as there would be nobody capable of getting a budget through.

You remain in this fantasy world where 2% of the electorate dictates outcomes to the 98%.

Tromking

Interesting game of brinkmanship between Labour and the Scottish electorate now. Miliband clearly is not going sell the English down the river and ruin Labour`s future chances with the people that pay for everything. Miliband seems willing to let Scotland go electorally now, and I have a feeling the Scots will the rue the day they withdrew from mainstream UK politics without having the cojones to ultimately leave the Union.

elantan

you may be right Trom... but hey its what the majority voted for, maybe they are into self destruction ... who knows

Tromking

elantan wrote: »

you may be right Trom... but hey its what the majority voted for, maybe they are into self destruction ... who knows

Indeed.
It feels from this part of the UK that 'Nicola' has overplayed Scotland`s and the SNP`s hand somewhat. Why she had to put it on Miliband so much I don`t know. I`m not sure that Scotland interests will be best served by a large rump of MP`s being ignored by all and sundry at Westminster.

kabayiri

Shakethedisease wrote: »

I wouldn't worry too much Leanne... Miliband holding a gun to his own head shouting 'Don't vote SNP, vote Labour or we'll let the Tories in'.. isn't a particularly effective message in Scotland at the moment.

...

"gun to his own head" :rotfl:

Classic. You are prone to hyperbole.

If only the Scottish economy was as big as the SNP ego - the whole of the UK would be an economic tour de force.

The Scottish voters are less than 10%. Mr Milliband has to campaign to the 100%.

Better_Days

Shakethedisease wrote: »

But confidence and supply.. no.. Vote by vote is what's going to happen. Gives the SNP/Plaid/Greens ( who've already formed a loose pact ) far more leeway. And no, I don't think I'm naive. I've just read up a lot on this. Simple arithmetic and FTPA works very well for small parties in Westminster.

(all above speculation based on polls, of which there may be 1000 other outcomes next Thursday ).

Could you explain how the FTPA makes a difference to the smaller parties in Westminster over what we had before? Although part of the difference now is that if the polls pan out the makeup of the 'smaller' parties will change and the vote seems to be a pretty even split between Lab/Cons for the 'bigger' parties. How's UKIP polling atm? Anyone noticed?

Generali wrote:

Regardless of what any Act of Parliament states, nobody can force the Labour party to be in Government. If Mr Milliband resigns the Government in your scenario the Queen would then approach Mr Cameron, as leader of the second largest group to ask if he could form a Government. As the SNP have stated repeatedly that they would simply vote down a Tory Government, Mr Cameron would then have to say that he was unable to produce a Government.

So, how likely do you think that if there is a 'vote by vote' basis (as suggested by Shakethedisease) government would become untenable and we end up having another election before the end of the 5 years?

Tromking wrote:

Indeed.
It feels from this part of the UK that 'Nicola' has overplayed Scotland`s and the SNP`s hand somewhat. Why she had to put it on Miliband so much I don`t know. I`m not sure that Scotland interests will be best served by a large rump of MP`s being ignored by all and sundry at Westminster.

Yes, although it was always going to be very difficult for the SNP to get a balance between appealing to Scottish voters and not alienating the rUK who they have to work with if the SNP wants to translate MP's into influence in government. It seems to me that having the GE following so closely on the heels of the referendum hasn't given time for things to settle down again before it was 'once more into the breach' and all that.