Red Across the Board

Thrugelmir

racing_blue wrote: »

It is not for me but has returned on average 9% per year over the last 40 years, and in I think 39 of those years the return was positive.

Then you've tracked the liberalisation of the credit markets and from the early 70's. Along with the inflationary policies of successive Governments. Will the next 40 years follow the same path?

Glen_Clark

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Then you've tracked the liberalisation of the credit markets and from the early 70's. Along with the inflationary policies of successive Governments. Will the next 40 years follow the same path?

People moan when you bring politics into it, but questions like that are inseparable from politics. I only wish I had paid more attention to politics. My biggest financial mistake has been investing in productive industry instead of unproductive buy to let. The landlord classes in parliament have taxed and regulated manufacturing into oblivion, whilst throwing our money at landlords.

TCA

Kendall80 wrote: »

Russia just boosted its interest rate up to a whopping 17% from 10%

And despite that temporary boost against the dollar, the rouble is now almost back to yesterday's all-time lows:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-30492518

Kendall80

TCA wrote: »

And despite that temporary boost against the dollar, the rouble is now almost back to yesterday's all-time lows:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-30492518

Indeed.


Regardless of ones feelings towards Russia this does feel like economic warfare. Punitive sanctions and manipulation of the oil price to keep the rising bear down.


Saddening that the general population has to suffer.


There will likely be a significant long term effect on Europe also especially in the east. I wonder if we will be immune to possible repercussions.


...but back on topic - it does represent a 'long-term' speculative buying opportunity. Capitalism is a dirty business.

TCA

Kendall80 wrote: »

it does represent a 'long-term' speculative buying opportunity. Capitalism is a dirty business.

Yes, 'long-term' might be the operative word. I'm keeping a beady eye on oil stocks, Russia and emerging Europe. All those are still in free fall, so there might be some way to go yet before gambling on a good entry point.

gadgetmind

Well, my largest holding (by far!) has gone up 12% today!

Ryan_Futuristics

I'm waiting till Thursday, and the result of the fed meeting on rate hikes - I think that could see either a continued sell-off or a stabilising of emerging markets

This kind of volatility is fun to take advantage of, but over the long-term, it's virtually meaningless ... Russia was cheap a year ago, and it's still cheap today ... 10-20 years of market movements and high dividends and rebalancing, and buying 15% cheaper today will be a few decimal points somewhere

Read a fascinating article yesterday - one of the most successful emerging funds in recent years, returned on average 15%/annum; yet the average investor lost 0.26%/annum because they kept buying and selling at the wrong points ... You've really got to focus on the long-term with EM, and that means valuation

Glen_Clark

One does wonder how much longer politicians can manipulate the oil price down, as oil gets more and more scarce, with no viable alternative in many essential uses. RDSB (Shell) haven't cut their dividend in 45 years, even when oil dropped below 10$ a barrel, so looks like a good long term bet to me. Far from a certainty though, as Macondo showed oil is a risky business.

TCA

Ryan_Futuristics wrote: »

This kind of volatility is fun to take advantage of, but over the long-term, it's virtually meaningless ... Russia was cheap a year ago, and it's still cheap today ... 10-20 years of market movements and high dividends and rebalancing, and buying 15% cheaper today will be a few decimal points somewhere.

I get your point but we're not exactly talking just a few points here. No pun intended. Take JP Morgan Russian Securities (JRS) for example. It's down 31% in 5 days. 37.5% down over the last month. 46.5% over 6 months. 56% down over 1 year.

Looks like it'll keep dropping, but *if* levels revert back to even those of a year ago (after however many years of recovery), then you'd think someone investing a lump sum now would be considerably better off than someone who invested a year ago, no?

Drip feeding might be the way to go however, which is presumably what you're talking about with rebalancing.

Glen_Clark

Ryan_Futuristics wrote: »

returned on average 15%/annum; yet the average investor lost 0.26%/annum because they kept buying and selling at the wrong points ...

If half are buying and selling at the wrong points the other half must be buying and selling at the right points. So as far as I can see the only way the average could lose 15.26% through dealing is if that huge amount was going in dealing costs?