London Has Peaked

MARTYM8`

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Gosh, if only someone had bought in early 2009 instead of trolling every housing board around proclaiming "50% falls by Xmas"...

Or even better, just bought in 2007 with a 100% mortgage at 1% above base for life....

Just sayin...:D

Apart from being extremely smug and self satisfied does your post add much value or assist that poster in any way?

They can't turn back the clock and nor can they change their age!

Because if they can't afford to buy - they are certainly not alone in London. They being our kids/grandkids/nieces/nephews...

hpifever

Well said!

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

MARTYM8` wrote: »

Apart from being extremely smug and self satisfied does your post add much value or assist that poster in any way?

'That poster' spent thousands of hours trolling this board, the house buying board, and a number of other websites, gleefully celebrating the global financial crisis and economic carnage as he thought it meant prices would crash "50% by Xmas".

It was explained to him on numerous occasions that the only realistic way that happens is if enough people lose their jobs that repossessions soar and his responses were little short of distasteful.

To compound that, he also actively discouraged people from taking advantage of low rates, the various HTB schemes, etc, in the process giving what has subsequently turned out to be the worst advice possible re London housing over the last few years, oh, and also actively promoted the silver bubble right before it crashed.

Any Londoner that listened to him would likely be many tens or even hundreds of thousands of pounds worse off by now, and in fact, may have lost their chance to get on the ladder in London for a generation.

Brit is not here looking for "assistance", Brit is here because he listened to his own incredibly bad 'advice', and is now completely stuffed accordingly.....

He would have been immeasurably better off had he taken one of the worst mortgages going, like a self-certified Northern Rock 125% I/O, and bought something, anything, at the previous peak in 2007.

So yes, repeatedly pointing that out is 'helpful', and does 'add value', as it ensures anyone inclined to listen to him today knows the full story, and that his arguments, like most of the other crash-trolls, simply have no veracity.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

And as for the OP's call that last April was the London peak, here we are, 12 months later, and London prices are up double digit percentages from then.

Trying to time the housing market is a mugs game...

For the vast majority of people, the only strategy that consistently makes sense is to buy as young as possible, through any means possible, and spend as much time as you can buying a house for yourself and not buying houses for landlords.

It really isn't rocket science.

onthehill

A good riposte Hamish after your initial statement which did look a bit off. Thanks for the backgrund.

However, on your bit that London prices are in double digit percentage growth April 2014 to April 2015, are you sure?

Are you comparing like with like - sold tio sold say (though April sold figures won't be in for a while yet) or realistic asking price to realstic asking price?

I get the impression that in SOME areas prices may have gone back up from a dip late last year, but I am not aware of a double digit growth from April 2014, which, I think, was in the mad period wasn't it of places selling above asking within days.

Am interestred in your data.

regards, onthehill

Loughton_Monkey

onthehill wrote: »

....I get the impression that in SOME areas prices may have gone back up from a dip late last year, but I am not aware of a double digit growth from April 2014, which, I think, was in the mad period wasn't it of places selling above asking within days.

Am interestred in your data.....

Probably Hamish is guided by Nationwide Quarterly stats showing London up 12.7% for Q1 2015 cf Q1 2014.

I can't see that being a million miles away from double digit Apr to Apr, can you?

So the boy Hamish (as usual) is probably right. He's not normally on the bottle this early in the day.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

onthehill wrote: »

on your bit that London prices are in double digit percentage growth April 2014 to April 2015, are you sure?

There's a bit of a lag in land registry, whereas with sales prices based on mortgage data from Nationwide there's very little lag at all.

Anyway...

Last available Land Registry data, released 3 days ago, shows London + 13.1%.

The latest Nationwide report shows London up 12.7% on a year earlier.

If you note that the rate of growth is decreasing, I'd agree with you, but delaying a purchase for the last year in London while you wait for prices to fall has proven a very costly mistake in most areas.

mayonnaise

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

'That poster' spent thousands of hours trolling this board, the house buying board, and a number of other websites, gleefully celebrating the global financial crisis and economic carnage as he thought it meant prices would crash "50% by Xmas".

It was explained to him on numerous occasions that the only realistic way that happens is if enough people lose their jobs that repossessions soar and his responses were little short of distasteful.

To compound that, he also actively discouraged people from taking advantage of low rates, the various HTB schemes, etc, in the process giving what has subsequently turned out to be the worst advice possible re London housing over the last few years, oh, and also actively promoted the silver bubble right before it crashed.

Any Londoner that listened to him would likely be many tens or even hundreds of thousands of pounds worse off by now, and in fact, may have lost their chance to get on the ladder in London for a generation.

Brit is not here looking for "assistance", Brit is here because he listened to his own incredibly bad 'advice', and is now completely stuffed accordingly.....

He would have been immeasurably better off had he taken one of the worst mortgages going, like a self-certified Northern Rock 125% I/O, and bought something, anything, at the previous peak in 2007.

So yes, repeatedly pointing that out is 'helpful', and does 'add value', as it ensures anyone inclined to listen to him today knows the full story, and that his arguments, like most of the other crash-trolls, simply have no veracity.

Well said, Hamish! :T

chucknorris

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

There's a bit of a lag in land registry, whereas with sales prices based on mortgage data from Nationwide there's very little lag at all.

Anyway...

Last available Land Registry data, released 3 days ago, shows London + 13.1%.

The latest Nationwide report shows London up 12.7% on a year earlier.

If you note that the rate of growth is decreasing, I'd agree with you, but delaying a purchase for the last year in London while you wait for prices to fall has proven a very costly mistake in most areas.

Despite the recent dip, our properties are certainly in double digit inflation, they are in Wandsworth, Harringey and Hackney. But to be honest the current price doesn't matter that much (only when we sell). But what does matter is rental income, I recently was given notice by a tenant that been resident for about 11 years, we tend to reward long staying tenants, so it was an opportunity to raise the rent, he was paying £1,495/month, we put it on at £1,800 and the first 3 viewers all wanted it, so the let has now been agreed at £1,800/month.

padington

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

i'm calling April as the peak of the london property price bubble.
i was actively looking to buy a house in tottenham late 2013 early 2014 during which time asking prices for a victorian terrace rocketed from around £250-275k to over £400k in around 6 months.
classic bubble territory.
people were buying on spec saying "you have to buy now because they'll keep going up and you'll never be able to get on the ladder"
words i've heard before during previous bubbles.
since april the tables have turned.
mmr came in, slowing things down a bit, perhaps giving people a chance to reflect on the enormous amount of debt they were about to take on.
real wages haven't grown for several years,
mark carney has been taking up the possibility of rate rises,
the eu economy (our biggest trading partner)is on the brink of recession,
trade war with russia (where does europe get its gas from?),
china hot money drying up,
US tapering,
wars (one of which is in europe),
winding down of funding for lending.
the only things sustaining the market as the moment are unnaturally low interest rates and help2buy
not enough to counter the headwinds.
sentiment has changed and sentiment moves the market.
i predict a sharp correction henceforth...

Yay ! Bubbles and Crashy have gone all quiet. :rotfl: