London Has Peaked

Bubble_and_Squeak

i'm calling April as the peak of the london property price bubble.
i was actively looking to buy a house in tottenham late 2013 early 2014 during which time asking prices for a victorian terrace rocketed from around £250-275k to over £400k in around 6 months.
classic bubble territory.
people were buying on spec saying "you have to buy now because they'll keep going up and you'll never be able to get on the ladder"
words i've heard before during previous bubbles.
since april the tables have turned.
mmr came in, slowing things down a bit, perhaps giving people a chance to reflect on the enormous amount of debt they were about to take on.
real wages haven't grown for several years,
mark carney has been taking up the possibility of rate rises,
the eu economy (our biggest trading partner)is on the brink of recession,
trade war with russia (where does europe get its gas from?),
china hot money drying up,
US tapering,
wars (one of which is in europe),
winding down of funding for lending.
the only things sustaining the market as the moment are unnaturally low interest rates and help2buy
not enough to counter the headwinds.
sentiment has changed and sentiment moves the market.
i predict a sharp correction henceforth...

wotsthat

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

i'm calling April as the peak of the london property price bubble.

Sold prices were higher in June than April so you're already wrong.

System

Well, that was a short thread.

Bubble_and_Squeak

wotsthat wrote: »

Sold prices were higher in June than April so you're already wrong.

on which index
as i've pointed out land registry has a time lag of many months

ukcarper

Nationwide shows average price for terrace in London as £359690 in Q1 2014 and £398450 for Q2.

Bubble_and_Squeak

ukcarper wrote: »

Nationwide shows average price for terrace in London as £359690 in Q1 2014 and £398450 for Q2.

time lag again
Q2 were probably mortgages agreed during the peak

Mallotum_X

How long do we need to wait for the data to agree with you...

ukcarper

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

time lag again
Q2 were probably mortgages agreed during the peak

The figures are post survey so not sure how long average time to completion from there is is but less than three month I would guess.

SailorSam

Even if London has burst it's still a world away from the rest of the Country. They've just been talking to someone on our local radio and here in Liverpool house prices have fallen by 9%, and the average price of a 3bed house £140k

Bubble_and_Squeak

Mallotum_X wrote: »

How long do we need to wait for the data to agree with you...

prime london is already falling in real terms, land registry was static in june for london (although i think its still a tad early to go on this) and asking prices are falling
would say last quarter for nationwide
not sure how significant halifax is to the london market

chucknorris

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

i'm calling April as the peak of the london property price bubble.
i was actively looking to buy a house in tottenham late 2013 early 2014 during which time asking prices for a victorian terrace rocketed from around £250-275k to over £400k in around 6 months.
classic bubble territory.
...

Tottenham Hale was also my area of focus, we bought a Victorian 3 bed terraced there in 2008 for just over £240k and have been keeping an eye on the area ever since. I think that you are being optimistic thinking that you could have picked one up for only £250k to £275k in 2014. We were however limiting our search to 3 bedroom houses and within walking distance of Tottenham Hale station. One example I just found in my email inbox (I received automatic alerts from Zoopla) was a 3 bedroom house on Carew Road (a bit of a walk to the station) for £300k in Sept 2013, and the market was rising then.


EDIT: I did find some ex LA houses in that price range, but we definitely wanted Victorian houses.