London Has Peaked

Bubble_and_Squeak

Jack_Johnson_the_acorn wrote: »

What is your conclusion re that link?

BoMaDs ! ! !

Bubble_and_Squeak

chucknorris wrote: »

I would not have thought that you were more picky than us, because as I said I wouldn't have entertained viewing anything on Dowsett road. When we bought the house in Tottenham Hale in 2008 we put in a new boiler, new kitchen, dpc, all new floor coverings, complete redec (obviously), new lawn to back garden and patio and numerous other minor improvements. Our relationships with our tenants are important to us so we would not try and palm them off with something not in very good condition.

was actually thackeray, seymor and roseberry i was looking at
wouldn't have bought on dowsett for the reasons you listed
although, i did consider it when i got desperate

ukcarper

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

as were the excuses you guys came up with for this one

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-30952581.html

I can see a lot of reasons why I would prefer the property sold earlier looks like it had just been refurbished no flat roof. But this link is the only one that supports your theory.

Bubble_and_Squeak

ukcarper wrote: »

I can see a lot of reasons why I would prefer the property sold earlier looks like it had just been refurbished no flat roof. But this link is the only one that supports your theory.

tbh i think its a clerical error on the part of the land registry
i know walthamstow very well and i know that road
there is no way a house in that area could sell for that price
we're talking market conditions beyond bubbles for that to happen

Bubble_and_Squeak

the old supply and demand monster rears its ugly head

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/constructionandproperty/11053878/London-housing-market-put-into-reverse-gear-by-surge-in-supply.html

the charts back up my london april peak hypothesis

wotsthat

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

the old supply and demand monster rears its ugly head

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/constructionandproperty/11053878/London-housing-market-put-into-reverse-gear-by-surge-in-supply.html

the charts back up my london april peak hypothesis

What index is going to show April as a peak?

Bubble_and_Squeak

wotsthat wrote: »

What index is going to show April as a peak?

i doubt any of them will- time lag makes pin pointing the peak difficult
i chose april because of mmr
although, i admit prime london probably peaked before then

wotsthat

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

i doubt any of them will- time lag makes pin pointing the peak difficult
i chose april because of mmr
although, i admit prime london probably peaked before then

If no data shows April as peak how will you know if it really was?

Bubble_and_Squeak

wotsthat wrote: »

If no data shows April as peak how will you know if it really was?

its a fair question
in 2007 there was a definite date when the lending stopped
this time its more of a natural market peak
the bubble has run its course and run out of steam so i would expect several months of conflicting data before a firm downwards trend manifests itself

wotsthat

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

its a fair question
in 2007 there was a definite date when the lending stopped
this time its more of a natural market peak
the bubble has run its course and run out of steam so i would expect several months of conflicting data before a firm downwards trend manifests itself

You called April as the top but there's no way for you or I to verify this.

If selling prices are up in the next land reg data you'll be saying there's a lag and if they're down you'll say you're correct. As a prediction it's a little vague.