London Has Peaked

Bubble_and_Squeak

wotsthat wrote: »

You called April as the top but there's no way for you or I to verify this.

If selling prices are up in the next land reg data you'll be saying there's a lag and if they're down you'll say you're correct. As a prediction it's a little vague.

if land registry is down in july for london i'd say its a bit early than i predicted
i'm thinking august

chucknorris

wotsthat wrote: »

You called April as the top but there's no way for you or I to verify this.

If selling prices are up in the next land reg data you'll be saying there's a lag and if they're down you'll say you're correct. As a prediction it's a little vague.

April may well prove to be a mini peak and prices may not go above that level in real terms, but I am so pleased at how far they surged up to then, that I would happily take that. But as you say, it is far too early to call that now.


On the back of how much they have surged, my wife announced this morning that she is bringing her retirement one year forward to this December (although they might offer her contract work to stay on longer). I've already paid into this year's SIPP assuming that I would work until the end of the tax year, and with the summer period being lucrative, I will probably stick to my original plan of retiring next December.

Bubble_and_Squeak

chucknorris wrote: »

April may well prove to be a mini peak and prices may not go above that level in real terms, but I am so pleased at how far they surged up to then, that I would happily take that. But as you say, it is far too early to call that now.


On the back of how much they have surged, my wife announced this morning that she is bringing her retirement one year forward to this December (although they might offer her contract work to stay on longer). I've already paid into this year's SIPP assuming that I would work until the end of the tax year, and with the summer period being lucrative, I will probably stick to my original plan of retiring next December.

how would a correction affect your wifes retirement plans?
surely you need to sell up to turn the paper gain into real geld?

chucknorris

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

how would a correction affect your wifes retirement plans?
surely you need to sell up to turn the paper gain into real geld?

We probably won't sell just yet for 3 reasons:

1. We don't believe that they will fall, merely stagnate, but even if they do fall, they will eventually rise again anyway.

2. The rental income is higher than share dividends or savings interest.

3. We have enough other liquid investments to not be concerned about selling.

As we don't plan to sell just yet, a correction (which we don't see coming anyway) won't have any/much affect on us.

Bubble_and_Squeak

chucknorris wrote: »

We probably won't sell just yet for 3 reasons:

1. We don't believe that they will fall, merely stagnate, but even if they do fall, they will eventually rise again anyway.

2. The rental income is higher than share dividends or savings interest.

3. We have enough other liquid investments to not be concerned about selling.

As we don't plan to sell just yet, a correction (which we don't see coming anyway) won't have any/much affect on us.

i just can't see where the money is going to come from to sustain even a stagnation, let alone more HPI.
ordinary londoners can't afford to buy- even with H2B
with rental yields low the money can only come from foreign speculators

chucknorris

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

i just can't see where the money is going to come from to sustain even a stagnation, let alone more HPI.
ordinary londoners can't afford to buy- even with H2B
with rental yields low the money can only come from foreign speculators

But presumably you couldn't also see them surging up to current values either? Otherwise you would have made sure that you bought last year. My rental yields are higher than savings rates and average dividend income from funds (I'm certainly not going to punt on individual shares).

Bubble_and_Squeak

chucknorris wrote: »

My rental yields are higher than savings rates and average dividend income from funds (I'm certainly not going to punt on individual shares).

i meant rental yields for people BTLing now in london

chucknorris

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

i meant rental yields for people BTLing now in london

So did I, using my current values and market rents.

Bubble_and_Squeak

chucknorris wrote: »

So did I, using my current values and market rents.

surely not
if someone BTLs at todays prices?

theEnd

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

if land registry is down in july for london i'd say its a bit early than i predicted
i'm thinking august

I agree. We'll start to see a downward trend on LR in Aug. It won't fall as much as asking prices as I don't think it rose as much as the mad asking prices late '13 / early '14.