London Has Peaked

onthehill

padington wrote: »

House price inflation. Re-read it after your coffee.

Sorry, still not really clear. You seem to talk about labour wanting to cool "cheap" property and hpi continuing. My other question about your definition of "cool" stands. Polite reply exchange of info/views welcome.

padington

onthehill wrote: »

Sorry, still not really clear. You seem to talk about labour wanting to cool "cheap" property and hpi continuing. My other question about your definition of "cool" stands. Polite reply exchange of info/views welcome.

House price inflation is like normal inflation and is seen by many economists as ideal if kept within certain parameters. Deflation Means that people will stop wanting to build or buy new houses. Too much and it might mean over kill and causing a crash and again people will stop wanting to build or buy.

The ideal is constant increases which a market can rely on. Also, labour will be looking for excuses to raise council taxes and this might provide one as they reconsider the concept of the the mansion tax skewing the rest of the market.

Libber

Oh god it was all true London peaked this time last year and now it's crashing all around us and the OP can have his pick of desirable properties in the areas of his choice at half the price they were going for last year.

padington

Prime certainly has peaked if labour get in ...

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/07/ed-miliband-non-dom-tax-status-labour

onthehill

Prime can be ignored for the vast majority of discussions about london property and where prices might be going. I am sick of papers writing about it as if it were london. Sometimes it is not clear until you are well into an article that they are actually wittering on about prime, very often from a barely subbed press release from a prime estate agent. It is another planet.

westernpromise

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Trying to time the housing market is a mugs game...

For the vast majority of people, the only strategy that consistently makes sense is to buy as young as possible, through any means possible, and spend as much time as you can buying a house for yourself and not buying houses for landlords.

This.

Holding off from buying because you expect a crash is speculating. It is speculating that prices will go down, but it's still speculating, in exactly the same way that buying houses in a number or size you don't need is speculating on prices going up.

People who do this and who 20 years later still haven;t bought aren't victims of a conspiracy. They're just mug punters.

onthehill

Anyone any views on this (also reported in other places) predicting a London fall in 2015?


http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/apr/13/uk-wide-property-to-outperform-london-analysts-forecast

cells

onthehill wrote: »

Anyone any views on this (also reported in other places) predicting a London fall in 2015?


http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/apr/13/uk-wide-property-to-outperform-london-analysts-forecast

I think its stupid anyone can think they can guess house price movementsto a Decimal precision percentage...

my own guess is London will go up 10% with a 10% margin of error. Eg it could be anything from 0% to 20%

Mallotum_X

I cant see London ending the year down. Flat(ish) maybe depending on how the election result is interpreted.

The commuter belt is still seeing prices rising as most commutable places still seem extremely good value compared to London.

padington

The devil is in the detail. Prime property is in the process of crashing for very specific reasons. Labour have identified that 2 million plus and non dons are going to get whacked. Prime crashing will take the average down. However london is a myriad of markets and micro markets. 450k houses are in a different weather system entirely to 4.5 million.

I suspect normal London property will go up on average for many years yet because of so many obvious reasons. Saying that nothing exciting will happen now for a while. Price rises may be very underwhelming until Labour show their housing hand and settle the market or until the Tories manage to take us to the brink and back over the ukip inspired euro referendum.