London Has Peaked

MFW_ASAP

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

still trying to convince yourself that the bubble will never burst
my guess is that you're too young to remember the 80s

If you're old enough to remember the 80s then you're fool for not buying before now.

padington

onthehill wrote: »

I would welcome folks' take on this from page 7/8 of the latest ONS report - out today.


The price index for London is now 0.7% below the record level of 243.5 in August 2014 with an index of 241.9 in January 2015. However, the London index is 38.6% higher than the pre-economic
downturn peak in January 2008 (174.5).

the full report:

[FONT=Arial,sans-serif]http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_398690.pdf
[/FONT]

its a zig zag , whilst the economy is on the up ...

1) up lots
2) down a tiny bit
3) go back to 1

After every upswing (because of short supply and huge demand) the marketplace questions whether it's gone too far. Then pressure builds and up again. The recent MASSIVE upswing and tiny re-evaluation just before a very uncertain election says to me the market is fundamentally very boyant still.

So I would say its a bad time sell and a good time to buy on a five year plan. Saying that, who knows how things could end up with the NSP anywhere near the driving seat, that would really trouble the deep pocketed prime market for sure.

After the election, as long as lib lab or tories are running things with no 'crazies' with their hands on the tiller, expect a healthy upswing with ripples out of London and watch the pressure build for another London ( or elsewhere ) increase first as simple supply and demand does its magic.

If milliband gets in with a decent number to get anything done, prime will take a bit of a beating, specific areas that get nominated for tens of thousands of new flats like kent might tank a bit and generally the market will be much slower but still heading up eventually but I think london could see a 10% hair cut as Balls and Millibad may worry the market at first but pretty quickly the market will come back to where we are now and then keep rising for another upswing around 2016.

With cons and and Lib dems again we might see another immediate London rise, with the rest of the country eventually feeling a double wave or new cities begining to become the centre of the new ripples and london getting their after-wake.

onthehill

MFW_ASAP wrote: »

If you're old enough to remember the 80s th3
en you're fool for not buying before now.

Well some folk bought at the end of the 80s and came a cropper - keys posted back through doors and that sort of thing. I remember the 80s but for personal reasons couldn't buy then.

padington

onthehill wrote: »

Well some folk bought at the end of the 80s and came a cropper - keys posted back through doors and that sort of thing. I remember the 80s but for personal reasons couldn't buy then.

That was because of high interet rates. This is the age of low interest rates, so totally different dynamic. Interest rates won't be the bogeyman. That new honour is now in the hands of the tax man as the extremes of inequality will become difficult to tolerate politically.

Those that really need to worry though are those that rent in the south, they're going to get shafted, even more than they are right now and thats saying something.

The worst case scenario for southern renters is the SNP gains some control in the next election and funnels much of the extra tax up north.

onthehill

Thanks for your thoughtful posts paddington.

padington

News just in, Ally pally is getting £18 million quid to bring it back as a major London Tourist attraction once again.

A big Ker-ching for Haringey ...

From AP's press release;

Alexandra Park and Palace Charitable Trust (APPCT) is delighted to announce that it has been awarded £18.8million of funding from the Heritage Lottery Fund (HLF) to restore the Palace’s most significant historic spaces to their former glory and secure the Palace’s future as one of London’s leading heritage destinations.

Under the plans, the eastern end of the Palace, comprising the BBC Studios and the Victorian Theatre will be repaired and refurbished, together with the glazed East Court in which a new and more welcoming public entrance hall will be created.

The BBC studios – birthplace of high-definition television broadcasts in 1936 – will be turned into an interactive visitor attraction, drawing on the BBC’s extraordinarily rich archives and telling the remarkable story of popular entertainment culminating in the birth and development of broadcast television. There will be a special focus on schools and learning programmes, displays of historic equipment and hands-on engagement with the art of making television programmes.

The Palace’s stunning hidden theatre dating back to 1875 will also be brought back to life for community and commercial use with theatrical performances, cinema screenings, live comedy, acoustic music and corporate entertainment among the ideas backed by leading arts figures. The theatre will accommodate audiences of up to 1,300 but has been designed to suit smaller and more intimate audience numbers too.

Duncan Wilson OBE, Chief Executive of APPCT commented:

“We are thrilled with the HLF announcement. Today marks a hugely positive and significant step in realising our aspirations to bring the Victorian Theatre and BBC Studios back to life and fulfil the potential of the Palace and its remarkable history for the local community, visitors from all over the UK, and overseas.

“There are further challenges ahead, including the launch of a new fundraising programme and preparing the Palace for the start of the construction programme later this year, but this announcement represents a huge achievement for the Trust and its supporters.”

Carole Souter, Chief Executive of HLF, said:

“Alexandra Palace has played a pivotal role in the development of popular entertainment – culminating in the birth of British television. The Eastern end has stood derelict for 35 years but now Lottery funding is heralding a new chapter for this iconic building, creating an inspirational space where people can learn about its rich and colourful history.”

https://www.hlf.org.uk/about-us/news-features/ally-pally-entertain-once-more

padington

padington wrote: »

The worst case scenario for southern renters is the SNP gains some control in the next election and funnels much of the extra tax up north.

Twelve hours or so after that posting that last night, they said this this morning ...

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/scottish-labour-leaders-plan-for-tax-grab-on-city-10132418.html

onthehill

do you live in Haringey by any chance Paddington?

padington

onthehill wrote: »

do you live in Haringey by any chance Paddington?

Yes and have been egging on people to join the party for three years. With Ally Pally getting a 29 Milllion spent on it and the Wooders high street street getting a 4.3million and the industrial estate around the chocolate factory becoming one of the biggest areas of regeneration in London, joining Hornsey with Wood Green highstreet - it was and still is a pretty good tip.

onthehill

thanks for the honesty.

Of course if they take your tip that will be good for you

Won't Ally Pally just benefit Muswell Hill and the like though?

Not likely to have any great effect on Turnpike Lane/Green Lanes etc etc.