London Has Peaked

wotsthat

Our dearly departed OP had a £300k budget to buy a house in London. On 5th January there were a couple of hundred properties available on Rightmove; today there are 129.

At the 'peak' he could've got a 3 bed house in his target area of E17 which then morphed into a 2 bed house and now it's looking like a flat.

setmefree2

onthehill wrote: »

OK.

All the best

It does by the way strike me that the standard of journalism on house prices is peculiarly appalling. I always thought that a basic discipline of journalism was to ask questions, at least pre-analyse "facts" before chucking them at the poor reader. Otherwise what's the point of their pieces - they are adding absolutely no value. I may as well ask my pet terrapin what is going on.

By the way, this thread is entitled "London" has peaked - not Ealing has peaked or Clapham has peaked or any other London area. It does look like "London" peaked last August - for the time being anyway.

This thread was started in August....

onthehill

pff

I'm sorry I don't understand your point.

We are going backwards.

People buy a particular house in a particular area.

It's in London but they aren't buying some sort of "London property bond".

They are buying bricks and mortar in a particular place with particular characteristics and transport - and the latter can change, affecting prices - witness the East London Line/Overground, and more recently crossrail. To spell it out, the East London Line doesn't go to Mayfair (and very glad of that its residents possibly are)

I don't understand your point about last august - people are posting on it now, as you are. And people are posting on it, and reading it, to try to figure out which way prices are going NOW.

SOME prices at least still seem to be rising after a blip down last autumn.

Philuk

onthehill wrote: »

pff

I'm sorry I don't understand your point.

We are going backwards.

People buy a particular house in a particular area.

It's in London but they aren't buying some sort of "London property bond".

They are buying bricks and mortar in a particular place with particular characteristics and transport - and the latter can change, affecting prices - witness the East London Line/Overground, and more recently crossrail. To spell it out, the East London Line doesn't go to Mayfair (and very glad of that its residents possibly are)

I don't understand your point about last august - people are posting on it now, as you are. And people are posting on it, and reading it, to try to figure out which way prices are going NOW.

SOME prices at last still seem to be rising after a blip down last autumn.

Prime London drove price increase since 2013 taking it its wind the rest of London in a mixture of sellers perception and ripple/dominoes effect. Market has severely dislocated from the real economy, leading to a low transaction level. Your fragmentation theory has no relevance especially when the main argument behind the price push is that London is a global city.

Philuk

cells wrote: »

you don't need to be in the 1-2% of earners, hell many of the top 2% probably couldn't afford to buy a house they would consider nice in those places

To afford a house in those areas or areas similar to them, you just need to have had a house in those areas in the past

So if Islington hampstead vauxhall battersea chiswic wimbledon richmand hackney etc had 1,000,000 owners two decades ago

Thats 1,000,000 families who can afford those prices

Correct. One's income is no longer relevant when it comes to purchase in London. Capital is passed down to the offspring through equity release which will finance the mamouth deposit needed to get on the property ladder.

padington

London rents steadily rising ...

http://www.theguardian.com/money/2015/apr/24/private-tenants-facing-highest-rent-increases-in-more-than-18-months

hpifever

fantastic news. well done

padington

hpifever wrote: »

fantastic news. well done

It wasn't me that pushed rents up. The only thing I've been saying is they will be heading up, along with the price of normal houses so you better make sure you are on the right side of the equation.

Been saying it for 3 and half years, still saying it.

cells

Inner London has truly become very expensive in terms of what you get for what you pay.

£800,000 for a terrace home in Hackney where half the population is on food stamps

Of course it is sustainable because that £800k home yields 5% return index linked which bests shares and savings accounts.


Rents need to fall for house prices to fall (or at least not go up for a number of years)

And rents won't fall

MARTYM8`

cells wrote: »

Inner London has truly become very expensive in terms of what you get for what you pay.

£800,000 for a terrace home in Hackney where half the population is on food stamps

Lets hope the government doesn't stop paying out benefits to the 50% of Hackney's population who rely on them to survive - August 2011 might look like a stroll in Hyde Park by comparison.