London Has Peaked

chucknorris

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

yeh, every which way was lame.
my favourite is the one where his mule don't like laughing.
have you seen the original japanese movies that fist full of dollars and few dollars more are based on? sanjuro and yojimbo, if i remember rightly.

At the end of a few dollars more (with Lee Van Cleef) when Clint is counting up the total bounty from all the dead bandits, he realises that the total is short, and therefore there is another bandit to kill. He then turns round and shoots him just before the bandit shoots Clint. On hearing the shot, Lee Van Cleef shouts over "Is everything all right?" Clint answers " Everything is alright, old man" and the film ends.


If I was the director I would have changed the last words spoken to " Yeah, everything is alright old man, just a few dollars more" (the title of the movie, they missed a trick there).

wotsthat

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

has the market picked up?

You're working on the premise that the record December falls in asking prices were indicative of a massive drop in sentiment. However, you won't accept that record January increases are indicative of the opposite. It's a bias problem.

Not that it matters because Rightmove MoM data is nice for arguing about on the internet but not much else.

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

2014 innit

At least you're getting better at predicting things. Always try and predict something which won't be known for some time. It's just that you looked a bit of an idiot predicting an April 2014 peak when prices were already higher.

aber

Prices keep rising.

mayonnaise

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

love a bit of dir'y 'arry!

I prefer Phil Spencer: Secret Agent.

Bubble_and_Squeak

wotsthat wrote: »

You're working on the premise that the record December falls in asking prices were indicative of a massive drop in sentiment. However, you won't accept that record January increases are indicative of the opposite. It's a bias problem.

Not that it matters because Rightmove MoM data is nice for arguing about on the internet but not much else.



At least you're getting better at predicting things. Always try and predict something which won't be known for some time. It's just that you looked a bit of an idiot predicting an April 2014 peak when prices were already higher.

no, i'm working on the premise that every piece of news on the housing market has been bearish since december- apart from today and something from halifax saying that prices rose 8.something% in 2014.
transactions are falling, mortgage lending falling, time on the market increasing, rics, bba, that other lot all negative sentiment.
so, i ask you again
is the housing market picking up?

tkane

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

i don't think hits on rightmove hits suggest a strength in the market. if it did transactions and mortgage lending would be increasing, not decreasing.

It's not indicative of the current market, record hits suggest stable ongoing demand if not rising demand. My point is that this is completely against the narrative of a cooling housing market.

Until interest rates rise there will be little downward pressure on house prices, IMO.

Bubble_and_Squeak

chucknorris wrote: »

At the end of a few dollars more (with Lee Van Cleef) when Clint is counting up the total bounty from all the dead bandits, he realises that the total is short, and therefore there is another bandit to kill. He then turns round and shoots him just before the bandit shoots Clint. On hearing the shot, Lee Van Cleef shouts over "Is everything all right?" Clint answers " Everything is alright, old man" and the film ends.


If I was the director I would have changed the last words spoken to " Yeah, everything is alright old man, just a few dollars more" (the title of the movie, they missed a trick there).

that goes to show the misallocation of resources we have in this country due high property prices. people that could have been film directors get involved in btl instead...

tkane

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

no, i'm working on the premise that every piece of news on the housing market has been bearish since december- apart from today and something from halifax saying that prices rose 8.something% in 2014.
transactions are falling, mortgage lending falling, time on the market increasing, rics, bba, that other lot all negative sentiment.
so, i ask you again
is the housing market picking up?

Look, there is undeniably a 'cooling off' in the housing market, spearheaded by Prime London. But considering we are coming off a humoungous rise in house prices in the last 2 years this is no suprise.

But you cannot equate a cooling off period which has been brought on by MMR and election jitters as a house price crash or even a correction. When you have sustained falls on the Land Registry THEN you can start talking.

MFW_ASAP

chucknorris wrote: »

At the end of a few dollars more (with Lee Van Cleef) when Clint is counting up the total bounty from all the dead bandits, he realises that the total is short, and therefore there is another bandit to kill. He then turns round and shoots him just before the bandit shoots Clint. On hearing the shot, Lee Van Cleef shouts over "Is everything all right?" Clint answers " Everything is alright, old man" and the film ends.


If I was the director I would have changed the last words spoken to " Yeah, everything is alright old man, just a few dollars more" (the title of the movie, they missed a trick there).

I love the ending of that film, but the dialogue is a bit different from what you remember:

Manco: [counting reward sums of outlaws he just killed] Ten thousand... twelve thousand... fifteen... sixteen... seventeen... twenty-two. Twenty-two? [a cowboy comes from behind, Manco turns and shoots him dead] ...Twenty-seven.
Mortimer: Any trouble boy?
Manco: No old man. Thought I was having trouble with my adding, it's all right now.

wotsthat

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

no, i'm working on the premise that every piece of news on the housing market has been bearish since december- apart from today and something from halifax saying that prices rose 8.something% in 2014.
transactions are falling, mortgage lending falling, time on the market increasing, rics, bba, that other lot all negative sentiment.

Yeah, apart from all the indices showing prices are rising it's been really quite bearish

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

so, i ask you again
is the housing market picking up?

Same answer - I don't know and neither do you.

If 31/12/2014 is your latest peak I'm not going to argue because we won't know for a while.

My whole interest in this thread was 'peaked' because I think it's difficult to consistently predict house prices with any accuracy so was interested to see you come along full of confidence. I thought that confidence was misplaced and I've been proven correct. How's that confidence now you're 15 months rent in and £300k now buys you a 2 bed instead of a 3 bed in your area?

At least you haven't done as badly as Crashy - I get a little taste of sick in my mouth just imagining myself in his situation although I think his reason to be is more about being debt free rather than owning a house so I suppose, in his own way, he's been successful.