London Has Peaked

Jason74

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Not sure asking prices "meant nothing" to some bull posters a year or so ago, but asking prices do mean something, they mean sentiment is either strong or weak, and it would be foolish to ignore the importance of sentiment in all this would it not?

Up to a point, yes. And on that logic, sentiment in my local market appears quite a bit higher at the moment than it has been at any time over the past six Months or so, albeit probably not as extreme as the early part of last year.

wotsthat

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

this is getting easier as asking prices are falling

Price of property coming to market up 1.4% (+£3,798) in a month where prices usually fall

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/house-price-index/january-2015

chucknorris

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

this is getting easier as asking prices are falling

I know what you’re thinking. Did the last 12 months of indices rise or fall. Well to tell you the truth in all this excitement, I kinda lost track myself. But being this is London, one of the most powerful cities in the world, and could blow your budget wide open, you’ve gotta ask yourself one question, “Do I feel lucky?” Well, do ya punk? Do you feel lucky?

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Crashy_Time wrote: »

asking prices do mean something, they mean sentiment is either strong or weak,

Rightmove January +1.4%.

Biggest January rise in the history of Rightmove.

and it would be foolish to ignore the importance of sentiment in all this would it not?

Heh heh.....

Bubble_and_Squeak

mayonnaise wrote: »

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.php?p=67483360&postcount=56

it has to sell before you can celebrate, romeo

Bubble_and_Squeak

wotsthat wrote: »

Your whole analysis is flawed. You can't comprehend what's happened in the near past so your commentary on what's happening now or may happen in the future has no value.

hey wotsit
sold any houses today?

System

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

it has to sell before you can celebrate, romeo

Jesus wept. The point of that chart is to show you the irrelevance of asking price drops, doesn't matter what it sells for or even if it ever sells.

Bubble_and_Squeak

Jason74 wrote: »

I'm really not sure about that to be honest. I can only talk about my area, and while there was definitely a small drop off in the second half of last year, there appears to be a bit of a new year bounce going on, not just in terms of asking prices (which as people on both sides of the debate have pointed out, mean nothing), but in selling (or at least "sale agreed") prices too).

I know you like rightmove examples, and to be fair, I actually agree with you that they can sometimes be more useful in understanding what is going on in local micro markets than offical indexes (albeit they mean nothing in a wider context) so this one should be quite telling

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-47089510.html

Went on the market in November last year for £450k, which on a historical basis is a luidicrous price for that road, especially for a house in that condition. On a historic basis, about £350k would have been about right, with perhaps a little more to allow for the fact that this house has an amount of land that gives quite a bit of scope to extend.

Well unsurprisingly given the ambitiouas pricing, it sat until Christmas, and I would have expected it to continue to sit until about the end of this Month when the price would have been reduced. But, as you can see, it's now gone under offer, which frankly shocks me.

And then there's this one:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-33313476.html?premiumA=true

Only an asking price I grant you, but the agent tends to be bang on with pricing. My first instinct is that this is way overpriced, and it sold at about £390k last spring. But as I say, the agent on this are very good at reading what the market will actually pay, so it will be very interesting to see how this one pans out.

But based on those examples, it's very difficult to draw any conclusion other than that my local market has bottomed out from last years falls, and that some small rises are the most likely outcome from here.

As ever, I'm talking about a small micro market that may not represent a wider picture, but I'm simply saying what I see .

it feels strange for someone to post something useful on here for a change. do keep us posted on how these pan out.
i've been contacted agencies recently, telling them upfront what my budget is and what properties i'm interested in. their their tone changes from dismissive to enthusiastic when i say i'm a first time buyer with an MIP. i suspect chains are breaking down because of mmr so the EAs are not getting their slice of the cake.

Bubble_and_Squeak

wotsthat wrote: »

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/house-price-index/january-2015

good news!
(if you can sell)

Bubble_and_Squeak

chucknorris wrote: »

I know what you’re thinking. Did the last 12 months of indices rise or fall. Well to tell you the truth in all this excitement, I kinda lost track myself. But being this is London, one of the most powerful cities in the world, and could blow your budget wide open, you’ve gotta ask yourself one question, “Do I feel lucky?” Well, do ya punk? Do you feel lucky?

love a bit of dir'y 'arry!