'We've reached a tipping point' Signs of house price weakness

Blooloo

wotsthat wrote: »

Sorry - what's that got to do with me suggesting some hypocrisy because you cheered on the mortgage restrictions and then starting complaining people couldn't get mortgages.

I dont recall cheering for anything, nor complaining about people not getting mortgages. The housing market is not about housing these days, its about the finance behind it..that is nothing to cheer about.


Hamish, nice to see you.

You may or may not recall that I happened to agree with you about the two tier mortgage market...ie, only the richer part of the community will be in the market at all at some point.

I wouldnt worry about HPCers coming over...its great for the MSE website and is nothing for you to fear...unless you have a chink of uncertainty in your armour?. Still, this board is NOT about individuals...is it..

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Blooloo wrote: »

You may or may not recall that I happened to agree with you about the two tier mortgage market...ie, only the richer part of the community will be in the market at all at some point.
.

Yes, I do.

That's the inevitable result of an ever worsening shortage of housing.

And the shortage of housing has been greatly worsened by the credit restrictions of the last 7 years.

Which some people, both on here and over there, have cheered on.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Philuk wrote: »

From a correlation point of view, prices in London have probably triple in 16 years while its population only increased by 20%, pricing out many of us in a relatively stagnant ratio population/house stock.

There's no reason prices should only rise by the same percentage as the imbalance between supply and demand though....

Prices rise until enough people are priced out that supply and demand equalise.

And given rising prices also mean rising equity for all existing owners, that can require a surprisingly big increase....

Not saying anyone has the answers, but there are many more factor to explain poor housing condition than simply a mismatch between number of flats and population.

Probably true.

However that still doesn't address the following.....

Many millions of adults are now living with parents, or lodging, or in HMO's, or flatshares, or what have you.

But the point we are trying to make, is that if prices were to halve, where would the millions of houses suddenly appear from for these people to go and live in?

They don't exist.... Which is why prices are expensive.

The market is rationing goods in scarce supply through price, exactly as it should.

Millions of people are forced to share, through high prices and high rents, that would otherwise want to have a place of their own, if they could only afford it.

But if they could afford it...... if you could wave a magic wand and drop prices and rents far enough so that these millions of people could now afford their own place..... it would make no difference at all.

Because there simply aren't enough spare houses.

They would still have to live at home, to share, to live in HMO's, etc.

Only now we'd have to find some other way of rationing the limited properties.

Perhaps waiting lists, or lotteries.....

the_flying_pig

i always make this point but current UK HPI [London aside] is fairly unexceptionally high by international standards, e.g. see the second page of this.

it'd be exceptionally strange if housebuilding restrictions didn't have an important role to play in HPI but stranger still to deny that there's an important global credit market story going on too.

http://my.knightfrank.co.uk/research-reports/global-house-price-index.aspx

Crashy_Time

Jack_Johnson_the_acorn wrote: »

No I'm not, are you saying that UK sub prime lending caused the crash here in the UK????

I`m saying that UK subprime was sold to overseas investors as AAA rated debt, and the prevalence of subprime in the UK made the UK very susceptible to a crash.

Crashy_Time

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

House prices, like all other asset prices, are determined by supply and demand.

The availability of finance is a component of demand.



And if you have a market that has been suppressed by an ongoing state of dysfunction in credit markets, and the intervention of the monetary authority is seeking only to restore some semblance of functionality, then it would be imprudent to assume a premature withdrawal is likely to happen.

Or that a withdrawal post the resumption of normal functioning would lead to adverse effects on asset prices.



You'll be talking to yourself soon if you keep that up.... In which case you might as well go back to a site like HPC that hardly anyone visits.

However there is nothing, I repeat, nothing, more relevant to future prices than supply and demand.

Which in the case of the UK, means the severe and unprecedented shortage of housing.

The shortage of housing that forces millions of people to share flats, to live in HMO's, and to be "cooped up" in starter homes and unable to move.

The shortage of housing that is the cause.... Rather than the price of housing which is the symptom.

And this is the bit that the shortage deniers can never, ever, adequately answer.......

Many millions of adults are living with parents, or lodging, or in HMO's, or flatshares, or what have you.

But the point we are trying to make, is that if prices were to halve, where would the millions of houses suddenly appear from for these people to go and live in?

They don't exist.... Which is why prices are expensive.

The market is rationing goods in scarce supply through price, exactly as it should.

Millions of people are forced to share, through high prices and high rents, that would otherwise want to have a place of their own, if they could only afford it.

But if they could afford it...... if you could wave a magic wand and drop prices and rents far enough so that these millions of people could now afford their own place, it would make no difference at all.

Because there simply aren't enough spare houses.

They would still have to live at home, to share, to live in HMO's, etc.

Only now we'd have to find some other way of rationing the limited properties.

Perhaps waiting lists, or lotteries.....


Straight question Hamish. Do you work for one of the big builders? Are you paid to create an online response to the idea that there is no housing shortage? The block I live in now is half empty, and has been for some time, and this is central Edinburgh at festival time, do you really expect people to believe that large swathes of the UK are stuffed full like shanty towns?

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Straight question Hamish. Do you work for one of the big builders?

Perhaps you should ask the same question of those well known big-builder stooges, Shelter, and the Joseph Rowntree foundation....

The country faces a large and accumulating shortfall between the homes we need and the houses we are building – of approximately 100,000 to 150,000 homes a year. If we remain building at current levels, we build a million fewer homes than we need every seven years. ~ Shelter.

Britain is heading for a property shortage of more than a million homes by 2022 unless the current rate of housebuilding is dramatically increased. ~ Joseph Rowntree Foundation

Now, I suppose you could believe the national charities who spend a great deal of time and resources investigating and researching the problem..... or...... you could believe some random anecdotal story from a person who calls himself "Crashy Time" and 'lives on HPC' with his other identity.

Yeah.... tough choice.

Jack_Johnson_the_acorn

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Now, I suppose you could believe the national charities who spend a great deal of time and resources investigating and researching the problem..... or...... you could believe some random anecdotal story from a person who calls himself "Crashy Time" and 'lives on HPC' with his other identity.

Yeah.... tough choice.

Hmmm... I love crashy.

I can picture him refreshing the forum every 2 secs begging for a response, each time he gets made to look more foolish.:D

Crashy_Time

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Perhaps you should ask the same question of those well known big-builder stooges, Shelter, and the Joseph Rowntree foundation....

The country faces a large and accumulating shortfall between the homes we need and the houses we are building – of approximately 100,000 to 150,000 homes a year. If we remain building at current levels, we build a million fewer homes than we need every seven years. ~ Shelter.

Britain is heading for a property shortage of more than a million homes by 2022 unless the current rate of housebuilding is dramatically increased. ~ Joseph Rowntree Foundation

Now, I suppose you could believe the national charities who spend a great deal of time and resources investigating and researching the problem..... or...... you could believe some random anecdotal story from a person who calls himself "Crashy Time" and 'lives on HPC' with his other identity.

Yeah.... tough choice.

I`ll try once more; Hamish, are you paid to troll the internet putting out a pro-building message?

Crashy_Time

Jack_Johnson_the_acorn wrote: »

Hmmm... I love crashy.

I can picture him refreshing the forum every 2 secs begging for a response, each time he gets made to look more foolish.:D

Remember boys and girls, if a person calling himself Jack Johnson the acorn tries to sell you a mortgage, run as fast as you can in the other direction. And tell a policeman.