'We've reached a tipping point' Signs of house price weakness

System

hpc_troll wrote: »

Again, no offence intended and I accept that you may not accept me as the arbiter of what is an what is not off topic, but in my opinion, this is off topic.

It may be different on HPC but you can discuss what you like here, regardless of the topic title.

Rota

ukcarper wrote: »

You think property is overpriced now but it is still selling as long as the number of people who can afford to buy exceeds the number of properties available prices will rise.

I was hearing how dear it was in 2004. Pleased I mortgaged myself up to the eyeballs then. Hasn't been an easy 10 years and required some sacrifice but it was well worth it to be debt free at 39.

Blooloo

Rota wrote: »

I was hearing how dear it was in 2004. Pleased I mortgaged myself up to the eyeballs then. Hasn't been an easy 10 years and required some sacrifice but it was well worth it to be debt free at 39.

Absolutely fine.. Ive said above there were winners. There have also been losers.

now, do you think a tipping point has been reached...My view is "not quite"...whats yours?

Oh, and I think you'll find there is a warning on investments that performance to date is no guarantee of peformance in the future...I wonder why that is inserted, probably at the behest of the regulator?

hpc_troll

Joeskeppi wrote: »

It may be different on HPC but you can discuss what you like here, regardless of the topic title.

Really? Well, if you'll forgive me for pointing it out, whilst that particular clash of cultures might provide us with an explanation for some of those bans that people are complaining about, it is going to frustrate attempts to have an on topic debate.

chucknorris

saguk1234 wrote: »

But who would be left to buy your overpriced property?

Just because you can't afford to or won't buy doesn't mean that others can't or won't. In the meantime I'm happy with the rental income.

Rota

Blooloo wrote: »

Absolutely fine.. Ive said above there were winners. There have also been losers.

now, do you think a tipping point has been reached...My view is "not quite"...whats yours?

Oh, and I think you'll find there is a warning on investments that performance to date is no guarantee of peformance in the future...I wonder why that is inserted, probably at the behest of the regulator?

London will certainly take a breather at this point. 20% increases aren't sustainable, MMR rules are cooling the market for now in the capital. Do I think its a tipping point for a happy clappy crash the HPC crew salivate over? No way. Maybe up/down a margin of error. I know MMR is cooling the market, that's a fact.

Outside of London and the SE they haven't really moved since the 2008 correction so expecting a "crash" in a strengthening economy seems highly unlikely.

chucknorris

Rota wrote: »

London will certainly take a breather at this point. 20% increases aren't sustainable, MMR rules are cooling the market for now in the capital. Do I think its a tipping point for a happy clappy crash the HPC crew salivate over? No way. Maybe up/down a margin of error. I know MMR is cooling the market, that's a fact.

Outside of London and the SE they haven't really moved since the 2008 correction so expecting a "crash" in a strengthening economy seems highly unlikely.

I'm amazed they have gone up as much as they have in the last 18 months or so, that'll do me for the time being, they don't have to constantly go up (we all know they don't do that anyway).

wotsthat

hpc_troll wrote: »

Whether intentionally or unintentionally you are continually trying to reframe a debate about what house prices do next as a chance to take stock on the financial consequences of buying at various points in the past against the financial consequences of being unable to buy or having chosen not to buy. In my opinion you have yet to make a compelling argument to support your position regarding the future path of prices and you have failed to mount a compelling rebuttal of any of the points that I have put forward.

Why do I need to issue a rebuttal - you think prices might go down a bit and I think they might go up a bit; we don't seem to be that far apart in our predictions. What do you want exactly - a fight in the playground about the effects of a Polish cafe worker living in an HMO on house prices?

I'm sorry to have been a disappointment but I'm more interested in how this great knowledge is to be applied. Should people STR, buy, continue renting?

I have no idea why you see it as a personal attack because someone has had the gall to ask how you've practically applied your views on house prices and how it's working out

hpc_troll

OK - how to call it a day in the least trollish possible way.

I'm not going to pretend that I wasn't a little startled by the tone of some of posts, but on reflection the username that I chose was crass. Sorry.

It looks like, as I expected, there is a broad church of views here, as there is on hpc.

I've read those boards a lot for a while and I really don't think that picturing it as a bunch of STRs slavering over the prospect of present owner-occupiers falling into penury is on the money today.

I think that there is a lot of anger about the level of debt that some borrowers have chosen to take on in the past, and the consequences that that is having for the rest of us today, and obviously some of that is directed at the most highly leveraged home owners who are the beneficiaries of the current extraordinary monetary policy to the same extent that savers and renters who would like to be able to outbid BTLers and buy are its victims. I guess that at some points in the past I have, to some extent, felt that anger myself, but mostly I just figure it is what it is and try to work out what a smart man would do next.

I can't speak to hpc in 2004 as I had no more interest in house prices then than I do in card tricks now, and I hate card tricks.

Nobody wins till everybody wins.

Blooloo

Rota wrote: »

London will certainly take a breather at this point. 20% increases aren't sustainable, MMR rules are cooling the market for now in the capital. Do I think its a tipping point for a happy clappy crash the HPC crew salivate over? No way. Maybe up/down a margin of error. I know MMR is cooling the market, that's a fact.

Outside of London and the SE they haven't really moved since the 2008 correction so expecting a "crash" in a strengthening economy seems highly unlikely.

Im not sure "signs of house price weakness" is the cue for "happy clappy crash ...salivate over" to be the claimed siren call on another website.

However, Im sure the priced out in the UK will start to gain some hope, the over-mortgaged see their next move up will be cheaper, and the economy becomes just a little more competitive. LTVS for remortgaging might fall and increase the rates for investors relying on 2 year rate teasers...