'We've reached a tipping point' Signs of house price weakness

wotsthat

Blooloo wrote: »

what were next years numbers again?

It's only possible to review past decisions against present data I'm afraid.

Percy1983

Out of interest those who are waiting for a crash, have you added up how much you have soent rentng while waiting for the crash?

IE, £30k in rent while waiting for a £20k crash doesn't really work out.

hpc_troll

wotsthat wrote: »

So anywhere between +20% and -35% in the next three years? I agree

There you go then. But seeing as we can't debate what we agree on, let's look for something we might disagree on; Which do you think is more likely over the next two years - up 10% or down 10% (in nominal), and what are the key factors in your thinking when you make that prediction?

I think down 10%, for the reasons that I've already given.

wotsthat wrote: »

I imagine this prediction would go down like a lead balloon on HPC.

Again, off topic.

hpc_troll

Percy1983 wrote: »

Out of interest those who are waiting for a crash, have you added up how much you have soent rentng while waiting for the crash?

IE, £30k in rent while waiting for a £20k crash doesn't really work out.

Off topic. If you want to talk about that, start a thread.

hpc_troll

Rota wrote: »

HPC don't consider 20-25% a crash because we have already seen that and it "just a taster".

Off topic

Rota wrote: »

I think a worst case scenario, and I mean worst will be nominally flat from here - once the last of the chancers have either withdrawn their properties or met the market.

You can read that graph anyway you like. I know what I see in it.

Well, that's rather the point I was making. If you're selling the argument that it's evident from the graph AND the argument that you can read the graph however you like, then that's not an argument. You are just asserting what you believe. Review the Monty Python argument sketch, you might enjoy it.

Rota wrote: »

Confidence has an awful lot to do with the economy and that's getting stronger all the time.

You can't buy houses with confidence. Most people do it with borrowed money. The unwillingness of the banks to lend large amounts of money at high LTV without the government taking the risks off their hands suggests that looking forward the banks do not share your confidence in confidence.

Rota wrote: »

I think history will "rhyme" for a while.

Eh?

saguk1234

HPI nutters have gone very quiet. I think the panic has set in!

wotsthat

hpc_troll wrote: »

There you go then. But seeing as we can't debate what we agree on, let's look for something we might disagree on; Which do you think is more likely over the next two years - up 10% or down 10% (in nominal), and what are the key factors in your thinking when you make that prediction?

I think down 10%, for the reasons that I've already given.

+10%/ -10% - I wouldn't be surprised at either and neither would you. More towards the +10% but who knows?

I predict that if I keep paying the mortgage then in a few short years I'll be living mortgage and rent free. I further predict that HPC will continue to lead people to make poor life choices.

hpc_troll

wotsthat wrote: »

+10%/ -10% - I wouldn't be surprised at either and neither would you. More towards the +10% but who knows?

OK, so up, but no supporting argument whatsoever. Thank you.

wotsthat wrote: »

I predict that if I keep paying the mortgage then in a few short years I'll be living mortgage and rent free. I further predict that HPC will continue to lead people to make poor life choices.

Off topic.

wotsthat

hpc_troll wrote: »

OK, so up, but no supporting argument whatsoever. Thank you.

Recovering economy, increasing population housing shortage.....zzzzz

hpc_troll wrote: »

Off topic.

How many times have you argued the housing market has been at a tipping point in your time on HPC? How many times have you been right?

No wonder you want to hit the big bear reset button on a daily basis.

Jack_Johnson_the_acorn

hpc_troll wrote: »

OK, so up, but no supporting argument whatsoever. Thank you.

Off topic.

Not enough houses to be a crash & prices aren't out of reach for those who usually buy.

If house prices dip by 20% it only puts them back to a level seen 2 yrs ago. Hardly a crash.