'We've reached a tipping point' Signs of house price weakness

padington

shortchanged wrote: »

I could have said the same thing but I didn't want to affect your mental state any more than it already is.

Much appreciated. Time to get back to Homeland series 3. Night night all. X

Bubble_and_Squeak

Jason74 wrote: »

Another piece of very sensible advice. I actually disagree with you quite stropngly on the likely short term direction of the Londpn market (albeit that could just be because we're genuinely seeing very different things in our own local area), because I think that short term (long term, its hard to see anything other than ever more expensive housing sadly), the downside risks are much greater and the potential for upside much lower than you suggest.

But it's hard to argue against the idea that someone who buys a home now because they want to live there is going to be better off both financially and emotionally a few years down the line than someone who tries to time the market. Buying something you don't really want just to be on the ladder is another matter imho, but its hard to see how anyone will lose long term by buying a home that they want to live in and can afford. The HPC crowd however, (esecially those who have sold to rent, !!!!!! is that all about ???) show how you can lose big long term by not doing that.

a colleague of mine today told me he was considering this and asked me what i thought.
it may surprise the bulls that i said ABSOLUTELY NO WAY!

shortchanged_2

padington wrote: »

Much appreciated. Time to get back to Homeland series 3. Night night all. X

Now I've got you totally wrong.

I thought you'd be sitting down now to watch yourself on the apprentice.

padington

shortchanged wrote: »

Now I've got you totally wrong.

I thought you'd be sitting down now to watch yourself on the apprentice.

You have, you've got me very wrong, let's go for a drink sometime, the internet can make enemies out of possible friends, life's too short.

lisyloo

he downside risks are much greater and the potential for upside much lower than you suggest.

I totally agree with you Jason.
The election could change things.
Foxtons are claiming a "sharp slowdown" in the London market

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/constructionandproperty/11181672/Foxtons-hit-by-sharp-slowdown-in-London-housing-market.html

But it's hard to argue against the idea that someone who buys a home now because they want to live there is going to be better off both financially and emotionally a few years down the line than someone who tries to time the market.

Agree with this too mostly, however I would like to try to avoid buying at a peak if it's avoidable and with an election coming up (and a lot of papering over the cracks) I think it's risky.

I have other reasons to put off buying (short term contract, currently mortgage barred and business tax break for temp accomodation) but whilst I don't expect to time the bottom I would still prefer to avoid buying at a peak.

I expect there to be some snowballing effect.
e.g. people see the "sharp slowdown" headlines and either deliberately wait or at least don't feel quite so pressurised so take their foot off the gas.

padington

lisyloo wrote: »

I totally agree with you Jason.
The election could change things.
Foxtons are claiming a "sharp slowdown" in the London market

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/constructionandproperty/11181672/Foxtons-hit-by-sharp-slowdown-in-London-housing-market.html



Agree with this too mostly, however I would like to try to avoid buying at a peak if it's avoidable and with an election coming up (and a lot of papering over the cracks) I think it's risky.

I have other reasons to put off buying (short term contract, currently mortgage barred and business tax break for temp accomodation) but whilst I don't expect to time the bottom I would still prefer to avoid buying at a peak.

I think there is a danger the Tories get back in and over night real confidence comes back into the market. I admit it's a gamble when it comes to the election. It's really about who you think is going to win.

However I also wonder if the mansion tax could actually result in cheaper properties shooting up. Traditionally when weird taxes on certain things comes in, it tends to affect the market in quite a weird way.

However the sentiment that London just can't go on this 'winning' streak anymore is widely shared and that sentiment might be at a critical mass.

On the other hand, we do have a pensions revolution coming our way and people do love buying houses, tax or no tax. However I guess labour could stop that pretty quick.

Also we will have the opening of the 24 hour tube next year as well as the new bill allowing London properites to short term let, both of which I think people have under considered when it comes to London Prices.

Bubble_and_Squeak

padington wrote: »

I think there is a danger the Tories get back in and over night real confidence comes back into the market. I admit it's a gamble when it comes to the election. It's really about who you think is going to win.

However I also wonder if the mansion tax could actually result in cheaper properties shooting up. Traditionally when weird taxes on certain things comes in, it tends to affect the market in quite a weird way.

However the sentiment that London just can't go on this 'winning' streak anymore is widely shared and that sentiment might be at a critical mass.

On the other hand, we do have a pensions revolution coming our way and people do love buying houses, tax or no tax. However I guess labour could stop that pretty quick.

Also we will have the opening of the 24 hour tube next year as well as the new bill allowing London properites to short term let, both of which I think people have under considered when it comes to London Prices.

this is why i aim to buy before april

lisyloo

We also have a number of government departments moving from London

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/whitehall-palaces-a-thing-of-the-past

This is market forces at work.
I'm not saying that on it's own would make a massive difference but if other companies go the same way then yes it could.
I agree with you loads of variables.
I think we'll just get on with our lives TBH because the timing of work (income), business, getting a mortgage etc. i.e. LIFE will probably overule everything else.

I'm not convinced about the pension argument.
The average pot is £30K - £40K and needed for basic living costs.
My in-laws have needed that money for disability aids and a few holidays so a small amount can make a massive difference if you're not well-off.
I just don't see people giving that away when they have 20-30 years left to go.
Why would someone retired want to go to central London? unless they are handing down to children/grandchildren.
I expect to be retired by the time I inherit, but perhaps I'm "unlucky" in coming from a family that passes on longevity.

BTW - We've been staying in short term serviced appartments for the last few months, usually a different place each week. We've learned a lot about different areas of London as well as what we as a couple can tolerate (shoe box studio no good for 2 people).
Whilst I agree that there is little argument against buying long term, you could certainly make a massive costly mistake jumping in too early if you don't know the area.
I could even end up in Walthamstow or Haringey !!
We are now renting where we intend to buy (before anyone says DEAD money, we can't get a mortgage right now) and on the research front I think that's a good move.

Rushing in without due dilligence could be a really costly and expensive mistake in my view.

Bubble_and_Squeak

lisyloo wrote: »

We also have a number of government departments moving from London

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/whitehall-palaces-a-thing-of-the-past

This is market forces at work.
I'm not saying that on it's own would make a massive difference but if other companies go the same way then yes it could.
I agree with you loads of variables.
I think we'll just get on with our lives TBH because the timing of work (income), business, getting a mortgage etc. i.e. LIFE will probably overule everything else.

I'm not convinced about the pension argument.
The average pot is £30K - £40K and needed for basic living costs.
My in-laws have needed that money for disability aids and a few holidays so a small amount can make a massive difference if you're not well-off.
I just don't see people giving that away when they have 20-30 years left to go.
Why would someone retired want to go to central London? unless they are handing down to children/grandchildren.
I expect to be retired by the time I inherit, but perhaps I'm "unlucky" in coming from a family that passes on longevity.

BTW - We've been staying in short term serviced appartments for the last few months, usually a different place each week. We've learned a lot about different areas of London as well as what we as a couple can tolerate (shoe box studio no good for 2 people).
Whilst I agree that there is little argument against buying long term, you could certainly make a massive costly mistake jumping in too early if you don't know the area.
I could even end up in Walthamstow or Haringey !!
We are now renting where we intend to buy (before anyone says DEAD money, we can't get a mortgage right now) and on the research front I think that's a good move.

Rushing in without due dilligence could be a really costly and expensive mistake in my view.

i think a lot of people were doing this (or trying to) in april!

MobileSaver

lisyloo wrote: »

I think we'll just get on with our lives TBH because the timing of work (income), business, getting a mortgage etc. i.e. LIFE will probably overule everything else.

This is what most normal people do and is the mistake that most of the HPC crowd make...

They get so obsessed with HPC/HPI that they put their lives on hold in the mistaken belief a crash is "just around the corner" and that they'll be able to time it perfectly to buy at the bottom.

lisyloo wrote: »

We've been staying in short term serviced appartments ... usually a different place each week.

Rushing in without due dilligence could be a really costly and expensive mistake in my view.

I think you must be pretty exceptional in your outlook, I can't imagine there are many people who would be happy to move their family and belongings, lock stock and barrel, from one home to another on a weekly basis!

I'd hazard that most people already have a very good idea of the area they'd like to set up home in but otherwise, yes, temporarily staying in a brand new area could be a sensible idea.

It's only the HPC crowd that have this weird idea that people rush into buying a property for financial reasons - in the real world most people buy for primarily emotional reasons and are extremely happy with the decision they made regardless of whether their house is worth 1% more or 1% less from one month to the next.