'We've reached a tipping point' Signs of house price weakness

Crashy_Time

chucknorris wrote: »

Over the long run yes it has and will most likely to continue to do so! Of course it doesn't always go up in the short run, and it is idiotic for you to suggest that it does. As far as I can see no one has ever proposed that it does this. You only have to look at the 70's and the late 80's/early 90's corrections to realise this.

When I first invested in property in 1991 my long term plan was to sell up when I got to about 60 (so hold for over 25 years), thinking that I would be financially independent and 60 was old(ish). I am now 56 and I am financially independent, but what has changed is my perception of 'old'. There is no way that I will sell up in just a few years, I've looked into it and staying in property is far better than selling up and investing in the alternatives. So I reckon I will hold for at least a further 10 years (until I am 65-70(ish), depending on my health and the market, obviously I want to sell when they are still increasing when the market is good.

Personally I would try to get out now, especially if you have London property. Too much chaos coming in the next ten years for house prices to do well IMO.

chucknorris

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Personally I would try to get out now, especially if you have London property. Too much chaos coming in the next ten years for house prices to do well IMO.

They don't particularly have to do well, just better (or at least no worse) than the alternatives. It is extremely unlikely that property already owned (so stamp duty and misc. costs already absorbed and disposal costs already committed to) would not do better than your 'safe option' of cash over a long period of time, particularly when attention is being paid to the timing of when deciding when to sell up.


I think that you are probably focusing on house prices and forgetting my rental yield is decent compared to other investments.

Crashy_Time

chucknorris wrote: »

They don't particularly have to do well, just better (or at least no worse) than the alternatives. It is extremely unlikely that property already owned (so stamp duty and misc. costs already absorbed and disposal costs already committed to) would not do better than your 'safe option' of cash over a long period of time, particularly when attention is being paid to the timing of when deciding when to sell up.


I think that you are probably focusing on house prices and forgetting my rental yield is decent compared to other investments.

My opinion is that housing is almost like tech stocks in the late 90`s, super over-valued, and ready for a big fall. Having a tenant is like being paid a dividend I suppose, but the chance to lock in any capital gains is now, the PTB have provided a window to get out, take it, at least with some of your property.

chucknorris

Crashy_Time wrote: »

My opinion is that housing is almost like tech stocks in the late 90`s, super over-valued, and ready for a big fall. Having a tenant is like being paid a dividend I suppose, but the chance to lock in any capital gains is now, the PTB have provided a window to get out, take it, at least with some of your property.

But you would say that, wouldn't you? We aren't going to switch about £115k rental income (plus probable annual rent rises and the potential for 'some' capital growth) for about £80k in gross savings with zero prospect of capital growth.

Thrugelmir

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

the safest one at the moment looks like cash

Appears that investors are running for the hills on a raft of indifferent company results and profit warnings. Allied to concerns over debt , poorer global economic and conflicts in several regions. End of an era (bull run) perhaps. That won't be aided by increasing interest rates.

First rule of investing don't lose your capital.

Bubble_and_Squeak

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Appears that investors are running for the hills on a raft of indifferent company results and profit warnings. Allied to concerns over debt , poorer global economic and conflicts in several regions. End of an era (bull run) perhaps. That won't be aided by increasing interest rates.

First rule of investing don't lose your capital.

yes, i'm thinking to jump ship at a loss
FTSE must be down about 8% from its peak

chucknorris

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

yes, i'm thinking to jump ship at a loss
FTSE must be down about 8% from its peak

I usually do the reverse and buy when it drops, sometimes I even sell it again when it goes back to near the peak, but not that often, I tend to stay in for the long run.

Bubble_and_Squeak

chucknorris wrote: »

I usually do the reverse and buy when it drops, sometimes I even sell it again when it goes back to near the peak, but not that often, I tend to stay in for the long run.

EU deflation looks inevitable, though
if that gets going we could have many years of stagnation

chucknorris

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

EU deflation looks inevitable, though
if that gets going we could have many years of stagnation

But it will NEVER look rosy while prices are falling, that's why they are falling.


EDIT: If you are looking to buy before next April, then you shouldn't really have any of your deposit invested in shares at the moment anyway.

Bubble_and_Squeak

chucknorris wrote: »

But it will NEVER look rosy while prices are falling, that's why they are falling.


EDIT: If you are looking to buy before next April, then you shouldn't really have any of your deposit invested in shares at the moment anyway.

as canadian country legend michael macdougall would say "that much is true"
i'm selling what i can when it hits break even value