'We've reached a tipping point' Signs of house price weakness

System

wotsthat wrote: »

Doesn't it seem odd that someone in their forties has several years living expenses in the bank but chooses to live in an HMO with a shared toilet?

Only if you believe a word they say.

ukcarper

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Care to work up some examples for say, the last ten years Hamish, `04 - 2014. The Edinburgh flat discussed earlier, trying to sell for the 2004 price should get you started.

I think I did that and you were still out of pocket.

wotsthat

Blooloo wrote: »

here is the whole raison d'etre for HPC...its about ordinary people being able to make choices about how they sort out their accomodation. The market has been totally financialised by leverage pushers.

Why is it a person on the London average wage of £26K cant find a place, certainly couldnt get finance, and therefore has no choice in the matter of their housing.

I could care less about the few BTL success stories, I considered it in the past myself, long before any of you entered the market, long before you could even go into a bank/building society and ask...they wouldnt have known what i was talking about.

Currently, BTL mortgages have a dishonest tax break on affordability so this immediately prices out swathes of potential buyers outbid by those that can get credit on cheaper terms, and currently unlimited by the recent mmr which owner occupiers are now subject to.

It is this outrage that HPC posters are outraged about. We love our landlords.

More houses in London would cure the problem. It would make accommodation more affordable and deter speculative investors.

Talking about 'leverage pushers' (banksters) and the like is just playing the blame game and attempting to cure the symptoms. The VI's, banksters, ponzi participants and all the rest love housing shortage deniers.

ukcarper

Blooloo wrote: »

I see, so saving on the purchase price and hence your ongoing costs is irrelevent.

y.

Yes buying at a lower price would save some money overall depend on the difference in price and how long you wait. But the only certain way of knowing what the lowest price is is with hindsight otherwise you are gambling.

Crashy_Time

ChopperST wrote: »

More good news crashy, oh wait...

http://news.sky.com/story/1319064/uk-growth-hits-fastest-annual-pace-since-2007

http://news.sky.com/story/1318960/rents-rise-again-as-home-costs-swallow-income

http://www.theguardian.com/money/2014/jan/16/rents-rise-tenants-outstrip-supply

Quote from one of the articles on this "growth" -


SteveInVienna • 3 minutes ago
I've just borrowed £200k and so I am performing better than anyone else on our street. The loser next door hasn't borrowed a bean, in fact he's actually saved some money, so he the worst performer on the street.

Says it all really.

Crashy_Time

wotsthat wrote: »

More houses in London would cure the problem. It would make accommodation more affordable and deter speculative investors.

Talking about 'leverage pushers' (banksters) and the like is just playing the blame game and attempting to cure the symptoms. The VI's, banksters, ponzi participants and all the rest love housing shortage deniers.

People refusing to buy or borrow to buy will reduce prices in London, it is happening now. The building or otherwise is irrelevant, we still have a price crash taking shape.

ChopperST

ChopperST wrote: »

Out of interest crashy when you say renters "have multiple years of living expenses in the bank"

1. How many years do you have?
2. How do you protect against inflation risk eroding your capital over time?

Quoting my post would you like to answer the question?

Crashy_Time wrote: »

People refusing to buy or borrow to buy will reduce prices in London, it is happening now. The building or otherwise is irrelevant, we still have a price crash taking shape.

Thats not a crash thats market forces, simple supply and demand.

Crashy_Time

ChopperST wrote: »

Quoting my post would you like to answer the question?



Thats not a crash thats market forces, simple supply and demand.

1/ More than you by the sounds of things.


2/ We are in deflation, house prices are just starting to play catch up.

Crashy_Time

wotsthat wrote: »

Why can't the buyer have multiple years living expenses in the bank? They've not paid any more for their accommodation - perhaps less.

They don't need to sell the flat for what they bought it for to be ahead of the renter.

£24k would fund your rent for about 6 years wouldn't it?

If your victory is that someone might have expected more HPI but didn't get it but they're £24k better off than you doesn't that victory seem a little...hollow?

They need to actually SELL the flat to get at the 24k, doesn`t that seem a little....obvious? And as many people have not saved during the last ten years or so, instead relying on ever increasing HPI to bail them out in the future, it is very unlikely that they will be better off than me.

Crashy_Time

wotsthat wrote: »

The calculation was one that Crashy proposed because he thought it would prove his point. He obviously hasn't done the calculation himself or he wouldn't keep making a fool of himself. He was probably told by someone on HPC that a 2004 vs 2014 calculation would work in his favour. Blind faith.

Caution is my middle name - yes I always advise it. I'd buy in any part of the UK today without any worry. London I'm not sure because a sudden, sharp crash just after buying would really push out the breakeven. Then again I've been amazed by London prices for three decades, don't have a functioning crystal ball and don't want to rent so if I found a place, had the finance and could afford it I think, on balance, I'd buy.

But my rent averages out at 350 p.m, your calculation gives mortgage payments of 393 p.m, and they still can`t sell the flat for no increase in price over ten years :rotfl:


Without the massive interventions and rate cuts your calculations could never even come close to my costs?