'We've reached a tipping point' Signs of house price weakness

Crashy_Time

Joeskeppi wrote: »

This is why they can't win. They may cheer if a crash happens but we're still the ones better off. None of this pointless argument makes any sense to me.

Why do you continually involve yourself in the argument then?

Crashy_Time

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Absolutely.

It's why it's rarely worth engaging.

Just post up a few worked examples every now and again and it becomes crystal clear to any passing newbies that the pro-crash arguments have no veracity.

Take the poster in this thread that has been renting for 17 years waiting for the fabled crash....

He's already paid more in rent than it would have taken to buy a house. And prices have more than doubled in the meantime.

If you buy a house for your landlord, prices double, then a crash comes along and prices fall 30%, it makes not the slightest difference.

You still bought a house for your landlord.

And you now have to buy another one for yourself.

At higher prices than where you started out.

To then sit around in those circumstances saying "prices are falling more in a month than I am paying in rent" makes such little sense that I can't begin to fathom what they are thinking....

Care to work up some examples for say, the last ten years Hamish, `04 - 2014. The Edinburgh flat discussed earlier, trying to sell for the 2004 price should get you started.

Thrugelmir

AndyGuil wrote: »

Let me see. So we have long periods of HPI followed by short periods of falls all pccuring in a cycle. We have just had a fall which is clearly over as the house prices have risen like they did straight after the last recession. A sudden kick of HPI at the start, tick, as before. Then a little restraint in the market with sustained increases to the next recession. It is a cycle.

Whose tyres are being constantly pumped up by Central Bankers to stop them going flat. So there's no precedent that can be followed to predict the future.

System

Crashy_Time wrote: »

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Why do you continually involve yourself in the argument then?

Beats working.

This whole thread is akin to me going to a forum for lottery winners and putting a case forward that winning the lottery isn't very likely so they must all be wrong. It's mind bogglingly stupid.

wotsthat

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Care to work up some examples for say, the last ten years Hamish, `04 - 2014. The Edinburgh flat discussed earlier, trying to sell for the 2004 price should get you started.

It's been done to death...

Price 2004 £71k/ Price 2014 £75k

25 year mortgage @ 4.55% gives a mortgage payment of £393/ month.

10 years and £47160 later the mortgage outstanding is £51k and the flat's worth £75k.

Depending on which version of your ever decreasing rent I use you've spent between £42k & £48k in the same period, own 0% of nothing and currently reside in an HMO.

Nice one.

Crashy_Time

wotsthat wrote: »

It's been done to death...

Price 2004 £71k/ Price 2014 £75k

25 year mortgage @ 4.55% gives a mortgage payment of £393/ month.

10 years and £47160 later the mortgage outstanding is £51k and the flat's worth £75k.

Depending on which version of your ever decreasing rent I use you've spent between £42k & £48k in the same period, own 0% of nothing and currently reside in an HMO.

Nice one.

So I would be better off with 51k of debt and a flat I can`t sell, plus on going interest payments? Interesting.

Crashy_Time

Joeskeppi wrote: »

Beats working.

This whole thread is akin to me going to a forum for lottery winners and putting a case forward that winning the lottery isn't very likely so they must all be wrong. It's mind bogglingly stupid.

Have you ever won the lottery Joeskeppi?

Crashy_Time

http://www.introducertoday.co.uk/index.php?option=com_k2&view=item&id=684:buyer-demand-flatlines-as-slowdown-kicks-in&Itemid=583


Looks like more people are choosing to stay in their cardboard boxes/spare rooms rather than borrow to live in overpriced property?

System

Jesus christ it's on the same button as the @ sign.

AndyGuil

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Whose tyres are being constantly pumped up by Central Bankers to stop them going flat. So there's no precedent that can be followed to predict the future.

The same things have been said before. It is always "different this time." The market will always follow the cycle. What has changed is we have even less houses for the amount of people.