We'd like to remind Forumites to please avoid political debate on the Forum... Read More »
Debate House Prices
In order to help keep the Forum a useful, safe and friendly place for our users, discussions around non MoneySaving matters are no longer permitted. This includes wider debates about general house prices, the economy and politics. As a result, we have taken the decision to keep this board permanently closed, but it remains viewable for users who may find some useful information in it. Thank you for your understanding.
We're aware that some users are experiencing technical issues which the team are working to resolve. See the Community Noticeboard for more info. Thank you for your patience.
📨 Have you signed up to the Forum's new Email Digest yet? Get a selection of trending threads sent straight to your inbox daily, weekly or monthly!
'We've reached a tipping point' Signs of house price weakness
Options
Comments
-
There are certain jobs that can only happen in London. The fashion industry is another one.
However for everyone else isn't there a point where you'd say no?
If we (as a married couple) had to actually share sleeping accomodation then I'd say no even if it meant dropping both our careers and massive lifestyle change.
I guess if you're single and young then it doesn't matter so much.
So maybe it'll squeeze out anyone that's attached and wants to live with their partner also.
But I get your point that it can go on and on even if certain groups get squeezed out.
It will go on as long as London is a world leading city but when that stops things will go in reverse. However should that ever happen, we've messed things up so badly, it will probably be time to go abroad.
However it won't go at the pace it has been, this is just a gold rush period as people are factoring the future gains. I think the supply and demand situation will lock more price rises in though for a good few years yet, which the House of Commons research recently predicted.
The Olympics nailed it for London (on top of many other factors) . Possibly the best advert that has ever been.
On a side note I think finding ourselves as the most visited city in the world for two years in a row?and then having the luck of golden summer weather all this while for all those guests, we've really been lucky.
Married couples will move out and the south east prices will probably go up lots, depending how many garden cities are built. The bread winners of each successive family might however still keep a toe in the London market by not selling or renting a room for a 'work holiday'. I imagine it's possible buy to let will ramp up in London to accommodate a newer younger or more dynamic demographic who are prepared to share more.
... and London houses will become even bigger cash cows.Proudly voted remain. A global union of countries is the only way to commit global capital to the rule of law.0 -
Clearly in London where some areas have seen crazy rises in the last few years there will be a period where people stop for breath. Various factors may affect things e.g. who wins the election, a potential stockmarket crash as prices are toppy now, and further problems in the banking system/China/Europe.
My impression is that properties are taking longer to sell in London - and some ridiculous asking prices are being reduced - as the surveys suggest. The point is if you do have ever rising house prices you do actually need to have people with the income/funds to buy them!
The current time spent on market this month alone is half the average and the asking price is up 0.87% according to rightmove.0 -
The point is if you do have ever rising house prices you do actually need to have people with the income/funds to buy them!
The point is that prices rise specifically to stop as many people being able to buy them.... That's how markets work to ration goods in scarce supply.
London now has almost 800,000 long distance commuters coming in from other regions of the country, plus god only knows how many coming in from the surrounding areas nearby.
London prices are where they are because of a massive housing shortage.
If London prices did fall to where millions more people could afford to buy one, how would you suggest they be allocated?
Waiting lists? Or a lottery?“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
They can't, but the spread between whats the banks charge, and what they borrow for is large. First this will close. You know as I do the govt will invent something to prop it up after that. After all, they have the ability to print money.
If you are prepared to wait until a time that cant happen you are a braver man than I.
If they could invent something to prop it up this thread wouldn`t exist. Sales volumes are way down since 2007. It is not a question of IF it crashes now, it is just about WHEN. If you are prepared to bet that they can hold the correction off indefinitely you are a braver man than I.0 -
Crashy_Time wrote: »If you are prepared to bet that they can hold the correction off indefinitely you are a braver man than I.
The correction happened in 2008.
The time before that was 1990.
There will be another one along in the mid 2020's....
Not sure that helps anyone needing a house today though.;)
If you want lower prices, sustainably, and for the long term, you need to build a hell of a lot more houses.....
“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
Crashy_Time wrote: »If they could invent something to prop it up this thread wouldn`t exist. Sales volumes are way down since 2007. It is not a question of IF it crashes now, it is just about WHEN. If you are prepared to bet that they can hold the correction off indefinitely you are a braver man than I.
You've decided to live in a small flat and wait for prices to fall sufficiently to allow you to walk into a nice 4 bed for peanuts. That's quite brave.
Over on HPC they've been saying 'they' have been propping up prices since the '90's - what if 'they' can manage to do it for another couple of decades?0 -
They can't, but the spread between whats the banks charge, and what they borrow for is large. First this will close. You know as I do the govt will invent something to prop it up after that. After all, they have the ability to print money.
If you are prepared to wait until a time that cant happen you are a braver man than I.
I think it's unlikely that a bank's risk premium (spread) will decrease in a more risky environment......0 -
Over on HPC they've been saying 'they' have been propping up prices since the '90's - what if 'they' can manage to do it for another couple of decades?
See sig.....:D“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
I think it's unlikely that a bank's risk premium (spread) will decrease in a more risky environment......
I think it's unlikely that any rise in base rates will be as a result of anything but a growing economy, falling unemployment, increasing wages, rising M4 as a result of lending growth, etc.
And that is absolutely not the environment you'd expect house prices to fall or bank spread to increase.
Not to mention the OBR are forecasting a 2.5% rise in base rates will only result in a 0.8% rise in average mortgage rates as spreads narrow in the face of increase lending and competition returning to the lending markets.
I reckon anyone expecting another crash when rates rise needs their head checked.“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
You've decided to live in a small flat and wait for prices to fall sufficiently to allow you to walk into a nice 4 bed for peanuts. That's quite brave.
Over on HPC they've been saying 'they' have been propping up prices since the '90's - what if 'they' can manage to do it for another couple of decades?
I have decided to watch the unwinding of the biggest credit bubble in history from the side lines, that is a lot less brave (or stupid?) than being highly leveraged IMO. Don`t know what you mean about the 90`s, houses and flats were selling at about three times income then? They can prop up prices, for a while, but they have not been able to get sales volumes back?0
This discussion has been closed.
Confirm your email address to Create Threads and Reply
Categories
- All Categories
- 351K Banking & Borrowing
- 253.1K Reduce Debt & Boost Income
- 453.6K Spending & Discounts
- 244K Work, Benefits & Business
- 598.9K Mortgages, Homes & Bills
- 176.9K Life & Family
- 257.3K Travel & Transport
- 1.5M Hobbies & Leisure
- 16.1K Discuss & Feedback
- 37.6K Read-Only Boards