'We've reached a tipping point' Signs of house price weakness

chucknorris

lukeh23 wrote: »

I tend to rely on the prices i am seeing on the ground now, then a study / article. In the area i hope to buy, i am seeing a lot of reductions over just the past month. Quite a number of properties dropping between 10 to 30k off asking prices.

.

One, two or several months isn't long enough to come to a meaningful conclusion or indicate a trend, how about over the last 2 years? My properties in London have gone up quite a bit in the last 3 years, especially during the last year, so a few hiccups now and then doesn't bother me. I can't see myself selling for at least 10 years anyway, possibly longer, but it depends on what the market does, and also what the alternative investment would be where I would invest the equity.

lukeh23

chucknorris wrote: »

One, two or several months isn't long enough to come to a meaningful conclusion or indicate a trend, how about over the last 2 years? My properties in London have gone up quite a bit in the last 3 years, especially during the last year, so a few hiccups now and then doesn't bother me. I can't see myself selling for at least 10 years anyway, possibly longer, but it depends on what the market does, and also what the alternative investment would be where I would invest the equity.

I agree, its to early to say, but the trend is reversing it appears, or on the cusp of a potential downward trend.

Your assets would have seen an approx 20% increase. Thats super bubble levels. You're a brave man if you plan to hold into that market for next ten years. Your username would be very apt.

I would say a crash really cannot be completley outruled for prime London. I believe it will be an 1980s Tokyo style crash.

We are making the exact same mistakes as the Japanese.

Rota

lukeh23 wrote: »

I agree, its to early to say, but the trend is reversing it appears, or on the cusp of a potential downward trend.

Your assets would have seen an approx 20% increase. Thats super bubble levels. You're a brave man if you plan to hold into that market for next ten years. Your username would be very apt.

I would say a crash really cannot be completley outruled for prime London. I believe it will be an 1980s Tokyo style crash.

Hi all, new to the forum. I heard people telling me that in 2004. So pleased I ignored this advice. Buying was the best thing I've ever done. I expect it to plateau out for a while with MMR rules finding their feet. With the UK economy getting stronger and stronger there is absolutely no catalyst for large reductions.

All these current reductions are chancers that missed the 20% up swing and have been knocked back to early 2014 levels.

I ask this question to all people who troll for a crash. Happy to have some responses.

"If there was a correction at which level (year) would you buy the London market?"

lukeh23

Rota wrote: »

Hi all, new to the forum. I heard people telling me that in 2004. So pleased I ignored this advice. Buying was the best thing I've ever done. I expect it to plateau out for a while with MMR rules finding their feet. With the UK economy getting stronger and stronger there is absolutely no catalyst for large reductions.

All these current reductions are chancers that missed the 20% up swing and have been knocked back to early 2014 levels.

I ask this question to all people who troll for a crash. Happy to have some responses.

"If there was a correction at which level (year) would you buy the London market?"

I would not buy in London, so that's pretty simple. I would buy a house as a home to live in, to raise a family in. Not as an asset to speculate on. You're free to do that, and you of course have government in place that will bend over backwards to support your asset by not allowing a free market to operate and instead playing the guardian by dropping interest rates to near on zero and lending tax payers money to 5% LTV deals up to 600 grand.

Also...I am troll because I view things differently to you?

Generali

lukeh23 wrote: »

We are making the exact same mistakes as the Japanese.

Which ones do you think?

Crashy_Time

Generali wrote: »

Which ones do you think?

Thinking that property prices only go up is the first one.....any more?

lukeh23

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Thinking that property prices only go up is the first one.....any more?

Pretty much it essentially, its all here:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_asset_price_bubble#Identification

Can't be bothered to list it all out as I have a nice cold beer that has my attention now and a couple of episodes of hannibal queued up on flex.

Rota

lukeh23 wrote: »

I would not buy in London, so that's pretty simple. I would buy a house as a home to live in, to raise a family in. Not as an asset to speculate on. You're free to do that, and you of course have government in place that will bend over backwards to support your asset by not allowing a free market to operate and instead playing the guardian by dropping interest rates to near on zero and lending tax payers money to 5% LTV deals up to 600 grand.

Also...I am troll because I view things differently to you?

Thanks for the reply. You sound a tad bitter? It doesnt matter if you intend to use the house as an asset or to live in, the question is the same. I call people wishing for a correction "crash trolls" and we are allowed to have differing views. :beer:

Crashy_Time

Rota wrote: »

Thanks for the reply. You sound a tad bitter? It doesnt matter if you intend to use the house as an asset or to live in, the question is the same. I call people wishing for a correction "crash trolls" and we are allowed to have differing views. :beer:

How far do you think they will drop interest rates when it next crashes?

lukeh23

Rota wrote: »

Thanks for the reply. You sound a tad bitter? It doesnt matter if you intend to use the house as an asset or to live in, the question is the same. I call people wishing for a correction "crash trolls" and we are allowed to have differing views. :beer:

Your question I have already answered....I would not buy in London at any point. What part of that don't you understand?

I call people wishing for a correction "crash trolls" and we are allowed to have differing views.

Yes, you already said that, very witty of you 'crash trolls'...like there is a crash and trolls right? You put the two together and you get 'crash trolls'...that's very clever.