'We've reached a tipping point' Signs of house price weakness

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Crashy_Time wrote: »

I have decided to watch the unwinding of the biggest credit bubble in history from the side lines,

And yet here we are with mortgage lending at only around half normal levels, and prices have reached a new peak.

Because that's what happens when you try to cure a housing shortage with mortgage rationing.

We did try to warn you DWS....

Crashy_Time

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-2714228/New-Bank-England-safeguards-force-lenders-raise-mortgage-costs-warns-Lloyds-boss.html


Of course it should read as Blow to HOMESELLERS , but never mind, we are getting there, the media and banks are all moving in the direction of saying CRASHES ARE GOOD! The little home debtors will just have to learn to like it I suppose?

wotsthat

Crashy_Time wrote: »

I have decided to watch the unwinding of the biggest credit bubble in history from the side lines, that is a lot less brave (or stupid?) than being highly leveraged IMO. Don`t know what you mean about the 90`s, houses and flats were selling at about three times income then? They can prop up prices, for a while, but they have not been able to get sales volumes back?

You're not on the sidelines - you've got skin in the game.

When I bought in the nineties transactions were also low. People thought I was mental buying a house when they were so expensive. The low point looked to be a few years ago (2009 -12) - I reckon the incumbents of HPC 2020 will talk about those years in the same hallowed tones as they talk about the nineties now.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Crashy_Time wrote: »

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-2714228/New-Bank-England-safeguards-force-lenders-raise-mortgage-costs-warns-Lloyds-boss.html

Yes, we know, Lloyds has temporarily reduced it's HTB1 cap to 150K.

But it only affects HTB1, not HTB2, and 75% of Lloyds HTB1 lending will not be affected as it's already below 150K.

Of course it should read as Blow to HOMESELLERS

Private sellers are unaffected.

It does not apply to HTB2.

The only result of this move is that fewer houses will get built through HTB1, worsening the shortage, helping to keep prices of existing stock high, and driving up rents....;)

You crashaholics never learn.....:D

Rota

Crashy_Time wrote: »

If they could invent something to prop it up this thread wouldn`t exist. Sales volumes are way down since 2007. It is not a question of IF it crashes now, it is just about WHEN. If you are prepared to bet that they can hold the correction off indefinitely you are a braver man than I.

What intervention measures did you think the BOE, Govt, banks would invent in 2008-9? Did you think all the props were invented then?

This thread exists because there was a comment about property on a website, in this case thisismoney.co.uk, and someone posted it up here. I know volumes are down and have friends that are getting lots of questions by banks with MMR rules and it is the middle of summer. To be honest, I'm glad about this. 20% increases aren't sustainable so this pause is welcome.

I simply can't see any driver for a huge correction. What % correction are you thinking it will be and at which level (year) would you be able to afford to get back in? 2004? 1998? 1993? No one seems to answer this one.

It would need to be a 60% drop for me to buy my place now. Wouldn't want to hold my breath waiting for that to happen anytime soon.

Lets remember back to 2008-9 when the world sat on the brink with the GFC London houses only dropped 20%.

Crashy_Time

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Yes, we know, Lloyds has temporarily reduced it's HTB1 cap to 150K.

But it only affects HTB1, not HTB2, and 75% of Lloyds HTB1 lending will not be affected as it's already below 150K.



Private sellers are unaffected.

It does not apply to HTB2.

The only result of this move is that fewer houses will get built through HTB1, worsening the shortage, helping to keep prices of existing stock high, and driving up rents....;)

You crashaholics never learn.....:D

Of course in the real world my rent has risen by £50 in 17 years.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Of course in the real world my rent has risen by £50 in 17 years.

HA!

Knew it was you.

dances with sheeple
I live on HPC!

Members

10,709 posts
Posted 15 January 2014 - 10:17 AM

rent has gone nowhere in years, mine has risen £50 in 16 years (central Edinburgh)

Any chance of you eating a large slice of humble pie regarding how wrong you were on Edinburgh and Aberdeen house prices?

Rota

gbsilp wrote: »

I think it's unlikely that a bank's risk premium (spread) will decrease in a more risky environment......

It will if they are given more free guaranteed money. Want to bet that can't happen again?

Crashy_Time

Rota wrote: »

What intervention measures did you think the BOE, Govt, banks would invent in 2008-9? Did you think all the props were invented then?

This thread exists because there was a comment about property on a website, in this case thisismoney.co.uk, and someone posted it up here. I know volumes are down and have friends that are getting lots of questions by banks with MMR rules and it is the middle of summer. To be honest, I'm glad about this. 20% increases aren't sustainable so this pause is welcome.

I simply can't see any driver for a huge correction. What % correction are you thinking it will be and at which level (year) would you be able to afford to get back in? 2004? 1998? 1993? No one seems to answer this one.

It would need to be a 60% drop for me to buy my place now. Wouldn't want to hold my breath waiting for that to happen anytime soon.

Lets remember back to 2008-9 when the world sat on the brink with the GFC London houses only dropped 20%.

People in Dublin no doubt said the same a few years ago.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Crashy_Time wrote: »

People in Dublin no doubt said the same a few years ago.

Ireland had 17% of it's houses empty in 2007.

The UK has just 1.5%, and those are in the wrong place for current demand.