how many REALLY think there'll be a crash rather than a stabilisation ?

ollyshaw

Gorgeous_George wrote: »

Good point but more North Eastern areas rose and I still do not agree with -0.7% figure for the area.



GG

N tyneside DOWN, S tyneside DOWN, Newcastle, DOWN.

I suspect they are the largest metropolitan areas in the North East. Although I don't know what other areas count.

The land reg figures are the only ones I trust as they list actual sale prices.

Olly

Snow_Dog

I can most definately state that statistically a crash is a possible future scenario, however there is an inherant chance that prices will stabalise. There is also by the laws of probability an option for house prices to continue to rise. All of this will in all likelyhood occur over an as yet to be determined time frame.

One must take into account all of the possible variables that will affect this prediction, which will most certainly change the probability that any of the suggested events may or may not happen over the suggested period.

Anybody care to disagree?

shelovestobuystuff

Snow_Dog wrote: »

I can most definately state that statistically a crash is a possible future scenario, however there is an inherant chance that prices will stabalise. There is also by the laws of probability an option for house prices to continue to rise. All of this will in all likelyhood occur over an as yet to be determined time frame.

One must take into account all of the possible variables that will affect this prediction, which will most certainly change the probability that any of the suggested events may or may not happen over the suggested period.

Anybody care to disagree?

:rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:
Not sItting on the fence on this one then?:T

Gorgeous_George

Snow_Dog wrote: »

I can most definately state that statistically a crash is a possible future scenario, however there is an inherant chance that prices will stabalise. There is also by the laws of probability an option for house prices to continue to rise. All of this will in all likelyhood occur over an as yet to be determined time frame.

One must take into account all of the possible variables that will affect this prediction, which will most certainly change the probability that any of the suggested events may or may not happen over the suggested period.

Anybody care to disagree?

By jove, I think you've got it. Any idea what numbers I should take on Saturday's Loottery?



GG

Snow_Dog

shelovestobuystuff wrote: »

:rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:
Not sItting on the fence on this one then?:T

Thats the whole point though really, no-one really knows for certain what is going to happen. Oh most certainly there are those that will look to history and say, its happened before so it will happen again. They will cite statistics and graphs, various media reports and data produced by the financial industry.

Funnily enough, there are those who will cite most of the same sort of sources for trying to prove that a 'crash' is not on the cards.

Both sides will bend and twist the reports sometimes, often only pulling out the statements and data they want to see. I have seen it on here many times (on HPC, GHPC all the time:D). Recently soeone started a thread on here with two graphs comparing the UK housing prices with the US, however the graphs were to a statatician clearly not directly comparable. Most people aren't stataticians.

What would be the most ideal for the economy is a stagnation of house prices for a number of years. A total crash would cripple the UK for many years and continued double digit HPI is not an option in the real world.

Unfortunately what is ideal and what is politics is usually two mutually exclusive things, the ruling party cannot afford a crash for the next year or two so they will do everything in their power to preserve HPI until after the next election. Meanwhile all of the VIs (EAs, banks etc) just want to put off the inevitable for as long as possible, to satiate their shareholders demands just that little while longer so they will perpetuate the roller coaster rise.

Snow_Dog

Gorgeous_George wrote: »

By jove, I think you've got it. Any idea what numbers I should take on Saturday's Loottery?



GG

Yup, the six winning ones mate:T

I will let you know which ones specifically in a few days time.:beer:

Pobby

Over a 30 year period we are at a point where the percentage of income to service mortgage debt is at the second highest.Assuming that £117k is the average ftb mortgage then it is 19.1% of income.however these figures are based on the ``average``( yea right) income of £35k a year.

The only time it was higher at 21.8% was in 1991.Think what happened around that period!

shelovestobuystuff

dannyboycey wrote: »

Can people not get their heads around the fact that if house price inflation rises faster than wages, there comes a point at which houses become unnafordable!??

If we had HPI of 10% a year, the average cost of a house in the UK would be over a million pounds within 20 years. Does anyone really believe that will happen!!??

Ehm Yes!!! and where have you been living for the last 2 years?And just out of curiosity how are property prices on THE MOON!!!;)

shelovestobuystuff

Snow_Dog wrote: »

Thats the whole point though really, no-one really knows for certain what is going to happen. Oh most certainly there are those that will look to history and say, its happened before so it will happen again. They will cite statistics and graphs, various media reports and data produced by the financial industry.

Funnily enough, there are those who will cite most of the same sort of sources for trying to prove that a 'crash' is not on the cards.

Both sides will bend and twist the reports sometimes, often only pulling out the statements and data they want to see. I have seen it on here many times (on HPC, GHPC all the time:D). Recently soeone started a thread on here with two graphs comparing the UK housing prices with the US, however the graphs were to a statatician clearly not directly comparable. Most people aren't stataticians.

What would be the most ideal for the economy is a stagnation of house prices for a number of years. A total crash would cripple the UK for many years and continued double digit HPI is not an option in the real world.

Unfortunately what is ideal and what is politics is usually two mutually exclusive things, the ruling party cannot afford a crash for the next year or two so they will do everything in their power to preserve HPI until after the next election. Meanwhile all of the VIs (EAs, banks etc) just want to put off the inevitable for as long as possible, to satiate their shareholders demands just that little while longer so they will perpetuate the roller coaster rise.

I like you!!!:T
It has been statistically proven time and time again that anything at all can be statistically proven,it just depends what statistics you choose to tell people about and what you are trying to prove.All statistics therefore are absolutely meaningless because no-one can foretell the future with any certainty,all we have are best guesses to the best of our ability based on the current information available.So we can discuss,argue and attempt to forcast all we like but all it comes down to is WE JUST HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE!!!;)

Turnbull2000

hearts wrote: »

It doesn't matter how clever they or you think they are. They were wrong then when the site started and they are still wrong now. Fair enough if the site stays open then eventually they may be proved right. (although because of the increases in prices since their first predictions, they are in fact still wrong) BUT none of their predictions have as yet come to fruition so THEY ARE WRONG!;)

I'm sure they'll be right at some point. In fact, they probably would've been right two years ago if the BoE hadn't made that ridiculous rate cut. The fundamentals of our economy are all wrong, and only the desperation of the Government, the lenders and numerous other vested interests (including media and TV) have prolonged the inevitable.

However, a lot of their old predictions have come true...

1. Inflation figures are fiddled
2. Interest rates are artificially low
3. Immigration and global economy will depress salary growth
4. Social consequences of HPI
5. Sub-prime mortgage scandal
6. BoE are not quite as independent as we're lead to believe
7. Inflation will no longer reduce debt
8. Inherent instability of the UK economy
9. Job growth through largely unproductive public sector
10. Public sector pension liabilities
11. Frightening levels of M4 money supply
12. And much, much more...

It took the media, some economists and the public at large a long time to catch up on what they've discussed for years. I say fair play to them.