how many REALLY think there'll be a crash rather than a stabilisation ?

nollag2006

There was a good interview with Evan Jones, on BBC R4 a few days ago, where he outlined his view that house prices are very unlikely to fall, with price rises continuing at a much lower rate.

His hypothesis was that with interest rates at the top of their cycle now (with a chance of a further 0.25% rise) coupled with high immigration fuelling the bottom of the market and foreign investors fuelling the top of the market, the risk of any fall is minimal, other than for areas of oversupply such as flats.

I'd have to say that most of the bears on here have been bleating on now for falls for the past 10 years, and watched as the market keeps rising before their very eyes

Long may it continue !!!

dannyboycey

nollag2006 wrote: »

Long may it continue !!!

I have no words to articulate my frustration at that post.

wecanhelpu

nollag2006 wrote: »

There was a good interview with Evan Jones, on BBC R4 a few days ago,

Who the hell is Evan Jones?

shelovestobuystuff

I,ll come back later when you are all quite finished swearing,:o and what is so useful about DT,s post.I am dissappointed that anyone thanked him for that nonsense.

phlash

wecanhelpu wrote: »

Who the hell is Evan Jones?

Good point! :beer:

nollag2006

Its a real pity that posters like DT, dannyboycey, and wecanhelpu have to behave like this

Pathetic really

phlash

It is important to note that the CML's figures for median salaries, is for those salaries of the FTB's who have bought, it does not include the salaries of those who have not bought. It is the average house buying salary of a UK FTB.

A FTB could be someone who sold and then got back onto the property market after a 12 month period, therefore this homeowner would of had a higher salary (due to age/salary relationship) making the stats go higher.

More importantly, what these stats are showing is that the average FTB is not the average person on an average wage. It shows, that the average FTB has to be alot more affluent than the average person.

Meaning, there is a large gap, showing that housing is not at an affordable rate for the average person.

dannyboycey

wecanhelpu wrote: »

Who the hell is Evan Jones?

Sounds like a random welsh bloke they pulled off the street. :rotfl:

sheraz2

saunaboy wrote: »

"shelovestobuystuff"

in that name lies the explanation why the UK economy is shafted:p

I know you say that in jest, but this is not actually true.

The UK economy has never ever been as stable as it has been in the past few years. This economy is awash with money and wealth. It's never been like this before as well. high houseprices are a side effect of Britains booming wealth and things would be alot worse is property prices didn't go up.

Only problem being that houses are a basic social need and those that can't afford them are a growing social problem and social cost of the country's wealth.

Consumer spending is only reported by the media because it's what the layman on the street can understand, this is only one of the smaller factors that are indicators of the economy itself. Britians booming mate. If you think times are bad now, just wait till we come down.

phlash

sheraz2 wrote: »

I know you say that in jest, but this is not actually true.

The UK economy has never ever been as stable as it has been in the past few years. This economy is awash with money and wealth. It's never been like this before as well. high houseprices are a side effect of Britains booming wealth and things would be alot worse is property prices didn't go up.

Only problem being that houses are a basic social need and those that can't afford them are a growing social problem and social cost of the country's wealth.

Consumer spending is only reported by the media because it's what the layman on the street can understand, this is only one of the smaller factors that are indicators of the economy itself. Britians booming mate. If you think times are bad now, just wait till we come down.

:eek: Sorry but that is a large misconception.

You are mistaking the word wealth for DEBT!

You seem to think that because people have borrowed more they are more wealthy?! Bizarre concept, they are in fact more indebted.

There's a very strange link between the rate of money creation (debt) and the rate of house price increases in the past few years. They have matched one another at >10%. So people haven't got more money, they are simply borrowing more.

EDIT: Replace every word 'wealth' in your post with 'debt' and your post makes sense!