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how many REALLY think there'll be a crash rather than a stabilisation ?
saunaboy
Posts: 162 Forumite
Just been on housepricecrash.co.uk, I get the impression that they all are wishing for a real catastrophic crash.
Do prople on here who I'm assuming are less biased towards doomsday scenarios really believe that there'll be a 30% crash or more or do you (like me) think that things will just more or less stick & allow inflation & salaries to catch up in time ?
Do prople on here who I'm assuming are less biased towards doomsday scenarios really believe that there'll be a 30% crash or more or do you (like me) think that things will just more or less stick & allow inflation & salaries to catch up in time ?
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Comments
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I think there will be a crash.
It is tinkering now but we don't have many desparate sellers yet. Once we get people dropping because the house has been on the market for ages and their lives have moved on and a large number of repossessions so the banks need to get some dosh quickly- then we will see a crash.
The extent will only be determined at that time. If prices fall then buyers will hold off. Because they are not seemingly falling yet we don't have that panic happening but we will - if prices drop.0 -
Unfortunately I cannot rule out a crash of 30%, it is a distinct possibility.
We've had >10% PA rises, arguably because of slack lending, low interest rates, positive sentiment towards housing, and massive speculative investing.
It wouldn't shock me if we saw >10% PA reductions, especially as I've seen news of tighter lending, higher interest rates, negative sentiment towards housing and signs of speculative investors cashing in.
If you break down what a house costs, its mainly made up of the cost of the land. Since the building materials and labour has not changed so significantly, it must have been land price increases? Yet when you look at land price inflation, it is no where near house price inflation? So it's a speculative rise in prices, which means we can definately have a speculative fall in prices, since they are not built on firm foundations!I can take no responsibility for the use of any free comments given, any actions taken are the sole decision of the individual in question after consideration of my free comments.
That also means I cannot share in any profits from any decisions made!;)0 -
Just been on housepricecrash.co.uk, I get the impression that they all are wishing for a real catastrophic crash.
Do prople on here who I'm assuming are less biased towards doomsday scenarios really believe that there'll be a 30% crash or more or do you (like me) think that things will just more or less stick & allow inflation & salaries to catch up in time ?
I can't see there not being a crash, but I may be wrong.
The reasons are:
debt - massive
mortgage mis-selling - I'm looking at you Kensington
recession - we're due one
inflation - external pressures pushing it up (oil, food, china, etc)
CDOs & MBS market falling apart in the US
Bond yields rising
The last two are a bit esoteric, & I'm not sure I really understand the full impact.
But then I am a regular poster on http://forum.globalhousepricecrash.com/ HPC's smaller, more intelligent cousin.
"Mrs. Pench, you've won the car contest, would you like a triumph spitfire or 3000 in cash?" He smiled.
Mrs. Pench took the money. "What will you do with it all? Not that it's any of my business," he giggled.
"I think I'll become an alcoholic," said Betty.0 -
ok, next question, what will happen after a crash ?0
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Hopefully all those awful TV shows doing up bloody houses will go away.
Maybe people will stop obsessing about houses for a bit.
I think for a few years all your friends will tell you that property will never make money. Then the whole thing will start again.0 -
Do prople on here who I'm assuming are less biased towards doomsday scenarios really believe that there'll be a 30% crash or more or do you (like me) think that things will just more or less stick & allow inflation & salaries to catch up in time ?
A 30% drop would be more of a 'correction' than a 'crash' bearing in mind House prices have trebled in many areas over the past 10 years. So hardly anything to worry about for most people. :rolleyes:0 -
I think we'll see www.housepricerise.co.uk come into fruition.
Channel four broadcasting "convert your flats back to houses"
Conservatives in powerI can take no responsibility for the use of any free comments given, any actions taken are the sole decision of the individual in question after consideration of my free comments.
That also means I cannot share in any profits from any decisions made!;)0 -
I think there will be a stabilisation followed by a crash. One leads to lower expectations of profiting from property, which decreases speculative demand, which leads to a crash.0
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Just been on housepricecrash.co.uk, I get the impression that they all are wishing for a real catastrophic crash.
Do prople on here who I'm assuming are less biased towards doomsday scenarios really believe that there'll be a 30% crash or more or do you (like me) think that things will just more or less stick & allow inflation & salaries to catch up in time ?
No I don't hope for a crash, I fear and expect one.
Currently house prices are based on affordability. For instance if you can afford £500 a month they will lend you £150,000 interest only at an introduction rate of 4%. (You may laugh but many first time buyers have been seduced by this kind of offer).
As rates rise that same £500 lets you borrow less on the affordability index. At 6% you can only borrower £100,000, at 8% £75,000.
Now if people can only borrow far less then before what way will prices go.0 -
No crash and no stabilisation!
A CORRECTION imo will happen.
I can not see wages coming into line with house prices, well possibly in 20 years time?0
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