how many REALLY think there'll be a crash rather than a stabilisation ?

hearts

dannyboycey wrote: »

Incorrect. There are some very clever people on there actually - the forum is often quoted in reports by BBC / Channel 4 news. And the BBC's Evan Davis appears to take it VERY seriously.

It doesn't matter how clever they or you think they are. They were wrong then when the site started and they are still wrong now. Fair enough if the site stays open then eventually they may be proved right. (although because of the increases in prices since their first predictions, they are in fact still wrong) BUT none of their predictions have as yet come to fruition so THEY ARE WRONG!;)

Gorgeous_George

ollyshaw wrote: »

Is a levelling off really possible? Will investors stick with an asset that is making less than leaving the cash in the bank? If these investors all sell up, wont prices drop?

Price drops are already happening in the North East and North West.

http://www.landreg.gov.uk/assets/library/documents/hpir0607.pdf

I can't see anything other than wages rising steeply or house prices crashing.

Olly

Interesting link. The North East down 0.7% but if you look at the NE by county/unitary authority, only Hartlepool has fallen. Middlesbrough was up 0.7% and Redcar and Cleveland up 0.6%. So, I assume that only Hartlepool is in the North East.



GG

beingjdc

There definitely won't be a stabilisation. Prices could carry on going up, or (more likely) correct/crash. A stabilisation doesn't add up - so many properties are currently being bought to let by people who have to subsidise the tenants, and do so because the price of the property is going enough to compensate them.

If the price of property looks like falling, those buyers turn into sellers, and flood the market, but demand disappears. Prices fall, more investors sell, repeat from start.

beingjdc

Gorgeous_George wrote: »

Interesting link. The North East down 0.7% but if you look at the NE by county/unitary authority, only Hartlepool has fallen. Middlesbrough was up 0.7% and Redcar and Cleveland up 0.6%. So, I assume that only Hartlepool is in the North East.

Lots of the NE isn't county or unitary though, it's Metropolitan. So, Newcastle (down), North Tyneside (down), South Tyneside (down), and Sunderland (up).

/local government structure geek

Romani_Ite_Domum

pinkshoes wrote: »

The only people that swear there will be a market crash are those that don't own a property, but if there is a property owner out there who thinks their property is going to drop 30% in price, please correct me.

You stand corrected.

Pobby

Romani_Ite_Domum wrote: »

You stand corrected.[/quote

Corrected twice.

wecanhelpu

And thrice

Gorgeous_George

beingjdc wrote: »

Lots of the NE isn't county or unitary though, it's Metropolitan. So, Newcastle (down), North Tyneside (down), South Tyneside (down), and Sunderland (up).

/local government structure geek

Good point but more North Eastern areas rose and I still do not agree with -0.7% figure for the area.



GG

devils_advocate

carpetbelly wrote: »

You really think interest rates will carry on like that?

The amount of money you can borrow depends on more factors than just interest rates. Yes, if you want the same monthly repayment then yes, you cannot get the same amount but then increase the term? Do something inventive, speak to the lender, there are plenty of options now adays to make things affordable even for those sums of money.

Carpetbelly, I started working for banks in the early 80s. I remember the last crash, which people said wouldn't happen before it did. I've sat on new product committees fro a variety of banks, and had to opine on the practicality, profitability and desireability of fairly complex structured offerings concocted between treasury and retail to their HNWIs, for example.

So that's my background. In fact, I've just scrubbed the lengthy reply which I typed out, because I don't want you or anyone else thinking I'm picking on you, so please don't take this personally. What I guess the real difference between us is, do you remember the last crash? I do, and suspect that you're too young to have been influenced by it. What caused that was a lack of confidence in the housing market, and I can see this just around the corner again. Global liquidity coupled with UK interest rate rises will have a slow squeeze, and its the boiling frog analogy. The mortgages will still be out there, but a lot of people won't want to borrow. And it wont be a crash between one day to the next is the same way as a stock market crash, but it will be a slow slide with the famed falls of 30% happening between 2 points, I suspect less than a year apart.

mystic_trev

Romani_Ite_Domum wrote: »

You stand corrected.

and three, four and five times. I own three Properties, two rented. I have a large amount invested in Property and yet still expect a correction!