how many REALLY think there'll be a crash rather than a stabilisation ?

dannyboycey

iamconfusedagain wrote: »

Hopefully all those awful TV shows doing up bloody houses will go away.
Maybe people will stop obsessing about houses for a bit.
I think for a few years all your friends will tell you that property will never make money. Then the whole thing will start again.

If it gets Kirsty, Phil, Beeney and such like off my TV, bring it on! It all started at the start of the boom with 'Changing Rooms' and we have been subjected to relentless property shows ever since.

dannyboycey

phlash wrote: »

Conservatives in power

_pale_

The worst of 3 evils.

pinkshoes

The only people that swear there will be a market crash are those that don't own a property, but if there is a property owner out there who thinks their property is going to drop 30% in price, please correct me.

If interest rates rise really high, then those that have borrowed way more than they can afford will suffer, and might have to sell their houses.

If prices DO drop 30%, then the only people that will suffer are those who need to move house. Most people I know would then rent their house out instead of selling, and either buy something else or rent until their house has +ve equity again. Don't forget there'll be other people in the same boat here, so it could potentially become like a house swap!!

In most areas in the uk, demand/need for housing is still high, and we can't build them at a fast enough rate. (increase in population and houses needed due to people living longer, high divorce rates and split families, immigration, and young couples living separately). If the market does drop 30%, then these people still need somewhere to live, and if there's nothing to buy, they'll have to rent.

A market crash would quite likely cause many builders to go bust, so the house building would stop, and demand would continue to increase, and we'll end up with an even bigger shortage.

There's so many aspects to a market crash, that it's near impossible to list them all, but for those who are thinking nothing but "yay, cheap houses", that that's rather naive... it could potentially be an economic disaster for this country.

kennyboy66_2

mystic_trev wrote: »

A 30% drop would be more of a 'correction' than a 'crash' bearing in mind House prices have trebled in many areas over the past 10 years. So hardly anything to worry about for most people. :rolleyes:

I think a 30% drop would more than qualify for the desrciption "crash". It would cause real hardship for many people who needed to move because of work or family reasons.
A drop of this scale & its effect on consumer spending would surely lead to a recession.

A few years later and the whole cycle can start again.

Guy_Montag

& all those immigrants who came here for the jobs will do what? Hang about & claim the dole or go work elsewhere for a decent wage?

& all those people employed by builders what will become of them?

& how can you afford to rent out your house if you can't afford to live there because of high rates

devils_advocate

The only people that swear there will be a market crash are those that don't own a property, but if there is a property owner out there who thinks their property is going to drop 30% in price, please correct me.

Me for one. And I think it's going to drop more than 30% at some point. And I've got a 4 bed semi in a well known london postcode.

dannyboycey

pinkshoes wrote: »

The only people that swear there will be a market crash are those that don't own a property, but if there is a property owner out there who thinks their property is going to drop 30% in price, please correct me.

Me too. Stand corrected

carpetbelly

Well, from my point of view I just don't see a crash happening. Maybe a slight correction at some point but I don't see a full on crash.

For one, there's the lack of supply compared to demand. And if you take the influx of immigrants that also adds to the shortage.
Banks are lending more and more money, yes under tighter restrictions but the sums of money to lend are available and there and also over longer periods of time if you so wished.

Also, interest rates are still relatively low. People compare this to the boom and bust of the 80s. Werent the interest rates then around the 15%+ mark? Slightly different to now to say the least!

People say America catches a cold and the world sneezes (or some rubbish like that). Well, they have a lot more land availble to build on so not under similar restrictions to us in that respect. Also, the thing that has hurt the US is the sub prime market which accounts for a rather large amount of their mortgage market. In the uk that market is far smaller and a lot more tightly controlled by the mortgage lenders. It's not a market you can compare us to very easily.

Working for a bank, I can tell you the BTL mortgages are being pushed especially as the banks still see money to be made in that area of housing.

Also, are people worried about houses as investments or just somewhere to live? I bought my first house the other month and yes, down the line I'd like to make some money so I can move up the ladder but that's not why I bought it. I bought it for somewhere secure to live, that I can decorate to my tastes and the money I put in to repay it goes towards me owning it rather than paying the same amount to rent somewhere where I have to bow down to someones wishes about decoration etc.

I'm glad I've bought, I've got my house that I like where I am happy. Yes, it's not my dream home but what first home is? FTB need to be more realistic as to what they can get for their first house also.

thesaint

saunaboy wrote: »

Just been on housepricecrash.co.uk, I get the impression that they all are wishing for a real catastrophic crash.
<snip>

On the six 'o' clock news tonight, Tesco claim to be the best supermarket.

Guy_Montag

carpetbelly wrote: »

I bought my first house the other month and yes, down the line I'd like to make some money so I can move up the ladder but that's not why I bought it.

Assuming you plan to stay in the same area how are you going to move up the ladder? If your £100k house increases by 50%, you get a whopping £50k for your troubles - but if the (currently) £200k house does the same, it'll be 100k more expensive. So instead of needing £100k to move up the ladder, you'll need £150k. From where are you going to get that extra money?