how many REALLY think there'll be a crash rather than a stabilisation ?

wolvoman

I'm a bit confused.

Why is there so much fuss about STR on this discussion.

What about those renting now who are considering buying - for those people the fact that houses went up 10% in the last year is pretty irrelevant. What does matter is what they will do over the next 12 months.

Care to forecast? Nollag2006? Keeperbear?

nollag2006

Without some major economic shock, it is very likely that house prices will keep ticking over nicely. My prediction for 2007 is somewhere in the 5 - 10% range, due primarily to the large influxes of foreign investors, and the strength of the economy.

m00m00

I'm starting to see serious reductions in the area I'm looking at. (Just outside Nottingham)

one property down from 77k to 63k after 6 weeks on the market
one property down from 90k to 80k after 1 week on the market.

extreme examples but I'm seeing reductions all across the board, and the property which isn't being reduced is just sitting there for months.

and these are 2-3 bedroom houses, not flats.

property snake would be very interesting at the moment if it had rightmove data on it.

poppy10_2

nollag2006 wrote: »

My prediction for 2007 is somewhere in the 5 - 10% range, due primarily to the large influxes of foreign investors, and the strength of the economy.

Well the Council of Mortgage Lenders disagrees with you (and let's face it, they've got a vested interest in talking house prices up as much as possible.)

They predict 5% at the very most this year, and only 2.5% (i.e. less than inflation - a fall in real terms) for 2008.

Linky:

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/money/property_and_mortgages/article2087112.ece
The slowdown predicted by the CML would give the property market its worst year since 1995 and would probably mean a real-terms cut in the value of most people’s homes.

wolvoman

nollag2006 wrote: »

Without some major economic shock, it is very likely that house prices will keep ticking over nicely. My prediction for 2007 is somewhere in the 5 - 10% range, due primarily to the large influxes of foreign investors, and the strength of the economy.

Haven't they already gone up by more than 5% in 2007 already? In which case at the lower end of your forecast, prices won't grow at between now and the end of the year?

And are you assuming the UK as a whole?

DontBelieveTheHype_4

nollag2006 wrote: »

Without some major economic shock, it is very likely that house prices will keep ticking over nicely. My prediction for 2007 is somewhere in the 5 - 10% range, due primarily to the large influxes of foreign investors, and the strength of the economy.

I don't think you can assume this on the basis of anecdotal quotes about foregn investors and the economy. What is the level of foregn investment in the UK/London? Do you know? As for the economy, well there are warning signs such as profit warnings at a five year high and at the same level as the bottom of the tech crash in 2001 ...
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6899536.stm ..... and we still have the effects of two rate hikes to take effect ... and possibly more hikes to come.

Future HPI is far from being a done deal. The latest quarterely figures from the landregistry showed declines in prices in 4 regions of the UK. the last time this happened was after 9/11. So where's the 9/11 this time?

What was the major economic shock in the US last year that caused the beginning of their current house price correction ? There wasn't one!

wolvoman

DontBelieveTheHype wrote: »

What was the major economic shock in the US last year that caused the beginning of their current house price correction ? There wasn't one!

I think 17 consecutive interest rate rises might just have had some influence on that!!

dannyboycey

wolvoman wrote: »

I think 17 consecutive interest rate rises might just have had some influence on that!!

We've had 5 in one year and at least a couple more to come before 2008. Add this to the fact that we are debt ridden like never before, and you've got a ticking time bomb!

wolvoman

dannyboycey wrote: »

We've had 5 in one year and at least a couple more to come before 2008. Add this to the fact that we are debt ridden like never before, and you've got a ticking time bomb!

Possibly, and there's already a slowdown underway. But the US subprime is a much bigger share of the market than it is here.

Does anyone know what has happened in the major global cities in the US with house prices, New York, San Fran etc?

Dithering_Dad

keeperbear wrote: »

I also know a couple of STRs who tried to guess the peak in the market three odd years again. They have lost thousands in equity, are complete muppets and don't even talk about the merits of "STR" anymore. However, you never hear about STR horror stories, only the successes.

Surely this is the case with any speculation? Are we to say that people who sell their shares at the height of the market are "Experts" whereas those who sell before the peak are "Fools"? I'm afraid life just isn't that black and white.

In reality everyone has their own risk level. Some will sell when they have reached what they feel to be a fair profit while others will hang on and either make a greater profit or get burned badly. The ones who sell at a fair profit may not become rich, but then they will also not become poor either.

For many people on a limited income the only way they can better their circumstances is to try and speculate. Whether this involves renovating a run-down house in the hope that it'll turn a profit in a rising market, or releasing gains made if you feel the market is about to turn.

In my book, the only "Muppets" are the ones who sit in fear for 10 years in their one bed starter homes because they are too scared to speculate one way or the other but then spend their time pouring scorn on people who are brave enough. Whether the speculation succeeds or fails, at least they had the bottle to try and improve their situation.

p.s. completely unconnected with what I have just posted... Keeperbear, will you and your "girlfriend" be throwing a party when you reach your 10 yr anniversary in your one bed flat?