how many REALLY think there'll be a crash rather than a stabilisation ?

wecanhelpu

nollag2006 wrote: »

Oh how I love to rile the HPC brigade !!!!

:j

Is it a bit too close to the truth for you dannyboycey?

Not to worry, there was a crash 15 years ago - I'm sure there's bound to be another in 15 years time.

In the mean time why not join all the other like minded whiners over on HPC, if you think that the debate on this site isn't going according to your liking ?


:money:
Bye now !!



We'll miss your insight and acerbic wit !!!

Oh yes the well known "30 year boom and bust cycle"

I forgot about that.


You were obviously not around last time.

Muppet

HokeyCokey_3

dannyboycey wrote: »

The irony is that the site is called moneysavingexpert, not moneypi5singawayexpert.

Lmao, good point!

There is nothing wrong with wanting a house price crash. It would do most of us some good.

Gorgeous_George

Higher IRs = Lower house prices

But who decides if rates are high. If I'd been offered 6.5% 20 years ago and I'd have snapped your hand off. Even 7.5& or 8.5% would have been attractive. So, maybe IRs are still low.

What is needed is stable IRs at whatever level. Only then will house prices be sustainable. It's madness that when rates fall, prices rise. No other commodity tracks IRs so perversely.

If only the BoE could use some other tool to control inflation. Maybe the BoE should be put in charge of tax rates.



GG

Turnbull2000

nollag2006 wrote: »

There was a show on BBC recently that predicted the UK population will rise by over 10 million in the near future.

With interest rates nearing the top of their cycle, now that inflation is starting to come under control

You sound so assured nollag. Got anything to back all this up? This is a debate after all. Though I get the impression that slanging matches are more your level.

http://www.optimumpopulation.org/opt.release20Oct05.html

Revised projections from the Government Actuary's Department, published today by the Office of National Statistics, suggest that the UK’s population, currently 60.2 million, will grow to over 67 million by 2031 and to 70.7 million by 2074

That's if immigration levels continues of apace of course. And you consider 2074 the near future? With you guy's being "innit for the long term", do you mean the 23rd century?!

As for inflation, this is one of many factors...

http://www.moneyweek.com/file/13648/why-china-may-soon-ditch-its-biggest-export---deflation.html

China can’t keep exporting deflation forever. As the country’s economy expands it employs more and more people. That means employers come under increasing pressure to offer more money to secure the best workers. A report from Daiwa Research by Toshikatsu Kimura shows that real wages per employee rose by 13% a year from 1999 to 2005.

The central government is also increasingly keen to enforce minimum wage rules. This is mainly to prevent civil unrest caused by the difference in wages between established city workers and those who are newly-arrived from the countryside.

And if labour costs are rising, that puts pressure on companies to raise the price of the end product too. And that could mean an end all the cheap goods that Western consumers have been taking for granted.

And finally...

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/news/article.html?in_article_id=419660&in_page_id=2

Interest rates could soon hit 7.5% as inflation risks spiralling out of control, senior economists have warned.

In an open letter, nine leading economists condemned the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee for failing to halt pressure on inflation.
The Consumer Price Index measure of inflation - the Government's inflation benchmark - has reached 3.1%. This is the highest level since the Bank of England gained control of interest rates ten years ago, as food and energy costs continue to rise.

'Inflation is back and it's going to get to 4% by the middle of next year,' said Tim Congdon, a former Treasury worker who was one of the nine who wrote the letter.

'It's not as bad as earlier cycles, but it's nevertheless bad and it's going to end the usual way. Rates will have to go to 6 to 6.5%, may have to reach 7.5%.' Mr Congdon's criticism is particularly directed at MPC bosses, many of whom were hand-picked by Gordon Brown.

m00m00

Gorgeous_George wrote: »

Higher IRs = Lower house prices

But who decides if rates are high. If I'd been offered 6.5% 20 years ago and I'd have snapped your hand off. Even 7.5& or 8.5% would have been attractive. So, maybe IRs are still low.

What is needed is stable IRs at whatever level. Only then will house prices be sustainable. It's madness that when rates fall, prices rise. No other commodity tracks IRs so perversely.

If only the BoE could use some other tool to control inflation. Maybe the BoE should be put in charge of tax rates.



GG

20 years ago though, you wouldn't have been paying 200k + for a property on average.

DontBelieveTheHype_4

nollag2006 wrote: »

HSBC have already increased their expected house price growth estimate for 2008. Far from a crash coming, house price growth seems to be stabilising in the 5 - 10% range.

As another poster pointed out, what I love about these HPC muppets, who have been peddling their "the sky is falling" message now for 10 years is that even on the very front page of the HPC website all the indicators point to further house price growth, but yet they refuse to acknowledge this ...

John Butler, economist at HSBC said: "Interest rates have risen, are likely to rise a bit further, and most of that, if not all of that has been passed on by banks at a time when unemployment is rising and real income growth is being squeezed."

"That is a bad mix for the housing market and .... there is a bigger chance now that we get a correction in 2007 than there was the last time interest rates were rising."

HokeyCokey_3

If there was a correction in the near future, what percentage would house prices have to drop to be at a reasonable level?

I can't see them dropping to what they were 8 years ago, unless we hit a serious recession.

kingkano

m00m00 wrote: »

20 years ago though, you wouldn't have been paying 200k + for a property on average.

you also wouldnt be earning 25k. swings and roundabouts.

I dont mind a small amount of HPC talk on the forum. I dont mind the debate. When it gets a bit slanging its useless though.

It's rather better than HPC.co.uk where I tried to post some kind of positive question and within about 10mins the thread was deleted and my account was disabled? !!!!!!?

manhattan

nollag2006 wrote: »

Oh how I love to rile the HPC brigade !!!!

:j

Is it a bit too close to the truth for you dannyboycey?

Not to worry, there was a crash 15 years ago - I'm sure there's bound to be another in 15 years time.

In the mean time why not join all the other like minded whiners over on HPC, if you think that the debate on this site isn't going according to your liking ?


:money:
Bye now !!



We'll miss your insight and acerbic wit !!!

Are you the mystical Bruno the brolly bruiser?

Gorgeous_George

The problem is IRs affect house prices much more than they affect anything else. Whether it is low IRs encouraging rampant house price growth and a misguided feel good factor or sudden high IRs inflicting misery on many of the least well off, the see-sawing affect is not a good one.

Controlling inflation would be better served by other means, such as variable taxes (a bit like the M25 variable speed limits perhaps). Either that or mortgage borrowing should be controlled outside of general lending mechanisms.



GG