how many REALLY think there'll be a crash rather than a stabilisation ?

Turnbull2000

Could this be the trigger needed bring down the market?!

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showthread.html?t=503953

poppy10_2

Gorgeous_George wrote: »

If the properties are empty they are not BTL (Buy to LET). They're more BTKEUSMCAAPTRHRs.

GG

OK, go on - what does it stand for :rolleyes:

CB1979_2

Gorgeous_George wrote: »

If the properties are empty they are not BTL (Buy to LET). They're more BTKEUSMCAAPTRHRs.



GG

pretty sure though you said you can't have one without the other (ie LL & Tenants) no mention of BTL

@ wecanhelpu - as i said, i'm only 27 and don't know of anyone who was affected by the last crash, etc. so no idea how this STR tactic has evolved or how new it is.

a quick q if i may, was the last crash caused by high prices & high IRs, like today's reasoning or was it other factors as well?

to be honest i haven't looked too far into it, as i'm not worried by it to be honest, even though i only bought 10 months ago.

but were prices as disproportionate to salaries as they are today?

ixwood

Gorgeous_George wrote: »

We'll have to beg to differ.

What came first the chicken or the egg; the tenant or the LL. Rather than blaming LLs you could just a s easily blame tenants. You cannot have one without the other.



GG

But chances are the tennants are people who'd have brought the house if the market hadn't been bid up by speculators, including BTLers. helped by all the cheap debt.

Markets just don't work IMO. They've somehow become more important than people.

Running_Horse

Turnbull2000 wrote: »

I believe the media have a lot to answer for - particularly the 'impartial' BBC. As we all know, sentiment fuelled by what people see, hear or read is quite powerful.

While it is easy to blame the meejah for every evil, some property programmes have helped hype the market. Even the other day one expert was advising a young couple they couldn't lose on their 1st-time-up-to-the-eyeballs-in-debt purchase.

Overheard a very young woman the other day talking about her 100% mortgage on a new flat with her boyfriend. They are the kind of people who will suffer if prices crash, if they split up, need to move, or have a reduction in income. The others to suffer will be recent BTL bandwagon-jumpers.

poppy10_2

Running_Horse wrote: »

They are the kind of people who will suffer if prices crash, if they split up, need to move, or have a reduction in income.

Or if they ever want to start a family...

Dead_Eye_Jones

Not sure myself. But housepricecrash isnt a good source of info. I like the way that the front page lists a series of indicators on current trends. All of them point upwards. The site also lists predictions from a list of major institutions. All of them point up too!

Yet the regular posters there seem to think prices started crashing at the beginning of the year!

I'd certainly like prices to come down, HPI isnt good for anyone. But that site has been posting the same message for 3-4 years now so they have long since lost the right to claim bragging prediction rights!

dannyboycey

Dead_Eye_Jones wrote: »

Yet the regular posters there seem to think prices started crashing at the beginning of the year!

I believe that the first quarter of 2007 will be seen as when it started. Because we have had double digit HPI growth, it is possible to have falls in some areas, but for the statistics to still show positive house price growth. It will take some months yet (end of 2008?) until the figures show as Year-on-Year negative for the country as a whole, especially with London still booming. Only then will you see the media use the word 'crash', but by then it will be too late for many - especially those who have tried their hand at buy to let in the past few months.

Analysts have predicted this week that HPI is likely to be only 2-3% in 2008. Take into account that inflation is higher than that, and prices are actually falling in real terms. Take London and NI out of the equation and with HPI at 2%, prices will be plummeting.

keeperbear

wecanhelpu wrote: »

Do you you think "STRs" are a new breed of people?

I know people who did just that during the last peak in the housing market.

The only difference this time around is the internet publicising their tactics.

I also know a couple of STRs who tried to guess the peak in the market three odd years again. They have lost thousands in equity, are complete muppets and don't even talk about the merits of "STR" anymore. However, you never hear about STR horror stories, only the successes.

I don't know why anyone would treat their main residence as an investment rather than a home, but certain internet discussion groups make you feel that it is the only way to act. Just like any form of arbitrage, STR is not an easy strategy to work profitably. If it was easy everyone would be doing it.

nollag2006

How could selling to rent be described as a success in a rising market ?

Anyone doing it is an idiot for gambling with the roof over their head, and deserve little pity as the market pulls away from them.

Add in rental costs, moving costs, mortgage payments foregone, and it really is a fools bargain.

The Sunday Times ran a good article some time ago outlining that house prices would need to fall about 5% year on year, in order for the STR brigade to beak even.

According to pretty much every housing survey going, house price inflation remains doggedly at the 10% + mark …


The last house price crash was 15 years ago – hope you have to wait another 15 years for the next one to materialise.