how many REALLY think there'll be a crash rather than a stabilisation ?

Gorgeous_George

WARNING - OFF TOPIC!

Gold_Shogun wrote: »

BTW, George ... I've just GOTTA ask, what happened with the Nasty Policeman you recently had the misfortune to meet ???

I passed him on the way to work an d thought nothing of it until I head a call from security. The local Police wanted a word about my car and I had to meet them in the car park..

Now, I know the law is the law and all that but the purpose of the law on number plates is that they can be read by the public and the automatic number plate recognotion cameras. Clearly, as he had managed to track me down in less than 5 minutes, my plate was legible. Being a private plate it is easier for a member of the public to remember that a random plate. Therefore, whilst my plate may not comply with the letter of the law it most certainly complied with the spirit of the law. I knew when I bought the plates that they were technically illegal but decided it would have to be a right W4 NKA of copper to pick me up for it.

Without giving my car registration away, the plate read XX55XXX rather than XX55 XXX i.e., the space between the 5 and the X was 11mm rather the 33mm required by the rules. I also had a flag on the left that was not one of those allowed by the rules and, as the plates are show plates, I did not have the postcode of the plate manufacturers nor the British Standard symbol.

My new legal plates arrived this morning and they still look good. The difference is marginal.

I believe in karma and one day I will have the opportunity to return the officer's kindness. I must write to the Chief Constable and congratulate him on his staff's attention to detail.



GG

d3eep

What about stamp duty. If prices continue to rise people will have less money for a deposit, especially as the average house price approaches the £250k 3% tax mark.

Also I remember watching a talk show this week and was amazed when they said 60 or 70% of flats in Leeds are empty and also in areas like the the south west local people are unable to buy a house as property investors have forced prices out of reach!! Something needs to be done about all these empty properties.

pickles110564

d3eep wrote: »

Something needs to be done about all these empty properties.

I know, if they are empty for more than 30 days the government can force the owner to sell them for £75K to imigrents and illegals as long as they have to vote for Labour and GB at every election

Gorgeous_George

The flats should be bought by the council (compulsary purchase) and HB claimants who choose not to work (they'd get less money if they worked) moved in. This would free up proper houses for those who work.



GG

wolvoman

nollag2006 wrote: »

At long last keeperbear, someone with a bit of perspective posting on this thread!!

As a landlord, I really hope that house prices keep on rising, but the truth is that no-one really knows.

My greatest error was selling a lovely 2 bed flat in Richmond in 2002 for £230k, because I listened to "an expert" who predicted then that house prices were overvalued by 20 -30 %. He's probably still sticking by his thesis !!!!

You're right, no-one can know for sure. Though we all tend to side with our own vested interests - for you as a landlord rising prices are what you're after. For FTBs and current renters they hope for opposite, fast falling prices.
EAs, lenders, policy-makers, housebuilders, conveyancers et al are probably all hoping for steady but not spectacular price rises.
I guess upsizers are looking for either flat or slightly falling prices.

As regards to prices being overvalued in 2002. Just because they've gone up since doesn't mean they weren't overvalued at the time. If I recall in 2002 house prices had already doubled since the low in the mid-90's, the dot com boom was over and there were lots of redundancies in the global IT, telecoms and media industries. The stock market was in free-fall, city bonuses were low or non-existant. Most of all we were in a new war in Afghanistan, 9/11 was still fresh in the memory and there was a lot of economic uncertainty with the possible build-up to a war in Iraq.

Indeed house prices did stabilise in and around London from 2002 to about 2005.

Of course what then happened was two-fold. Interest rates kept falling through the end of 2002 and into 2003 and stayed low into 2004. Secondly public sector spending went through the roof, to levels never seen before resulting in a huge increase in employment in the public sector. Proportionately this public sector spend was away from London and hence the take-off in house price growth in the regions.

Then we were all set for a soft landing in 2004/05 - economic growth was doing ok, the stock market was rebounding strongly from its lows in 2003, things looked ok. So the BoE raised interest rates a few times to slow inflation. It slowed house price inflation - not to a correction (not even into negative growth). Then that bizarre BoE decision in August 2005 to cut rates at a time when the consensus was either to rise or hold steady for a few months. Of course by now London was awash with money - salaries, bonuses and stock markets were up, and now interest were down - 'let's have another house buying party'.

And so here were are today.
There's no doubt that house prices are overvalued - if people are struggling to afford to buy then they are overvalued. Now let me be clear - just because they are overvalued does not imply that they have to fall in the short term.

There's a lot of talk that over the long term house prices rise. I think even at current prices this might well be true, but the measurement of 'long-term' is getting longer for each month that prices rise ahead of incomes.

Pobby

Kinky_Boots wrote: »

THERE WILL NEVER BE A PROPERTY CRASH![/quotT

There we go.End of debate.This well reasoned arguement
says it all!

Elle00

My old man had an interesting theory on this. In fairness he's been inside for most of my life so I'm not convinced just how far into this outside world he actually submerges himself but the logic here is pretty sound!

He seems to think that there WILL be a slight crash (but only very slight and then a stabilisation for a year or two) because the banks have lost so much revenue through repaying bank charges. Reason being? Think how many people have been freeing up chunks of equity in their homes to repay loans over and over again? Well if house prices take a dip, and people that are up to their necks in debt suddenly lose all the equity they've been dipping into to repay loans, what then? Well then they spiral into debt they can't afford to repay, have no equity left and the banks can swoop in and reclaim their homes when they fall behind on the mortgage. If the banks get hold of enough homes through repossession it should make it worthwhile for them to sell these properties back on the open market even with the marginally reduced rates.

As I'm not an accountant (though I do work in finance now embarrassingly enough but only in a junior role!), I simply cannot sit here with a calculator and spreadsheet and tell you honestly whether or not this is a plausible theory. It SOUNDS like one to me but I don't understand enough about national economy to have an informed opinion on the matter.

On another note, PM Brownie has just pledged to build 300,000 new homes on state owned land so perhaps this boost to the housing stock would bring down the overall market rate by a couple of percent? That's IF he actually does what he says he's going to do mind and in the ten years or so it takes him (or that pleb Cameron) to action the idea.

I'm all for praying for a massive housing price crash but we have to remain realistic and not plan our lives around a fantasy. I'm a lone parent earning just £14.5kpa so if you think I'm not praying just as hard as anyone else on here you're joking! We lone parents don't get access to affordable housing when we work contrary to population opinion; we have to pay market rate rental prices whilst everyone in a hostel on IS is getting housed first. As so many people keep going into hostels, basically it means people like me never get affordable housing or permenant homes. I'd give my right arm to have my own home through private or council but I doubt this will ever happen.

Personally, I've set my own personal goal of saving up for shared ownership. It's possible that through work and study I could earn around £20kpa in my chosen profession by the time my 2yr old starts school (and so childcare is minimal). I could afford a 35% share plus rent in that situation but that's only if house prices don't fluctuate more than a couple of percent in the next three years.

This situation really does suck doesn't it?! Some couples can't even afford shared ownership in the areas they live in let alone a whole house.

Dithering_Dad

keeperbear wrote: »

The truth is no one knows what will happen to house prices. Furthermore, many homeowners don't really care as they own a home not an investment.

Sorry, I can't believe this statement. Whether people view their homes as a home or investment, I would be amazed if they didn't care whether their home dropped in value. Houses are most people's largest (if not only) investment, so to say that they won't care if it loses value is plain daft.

It seems strange that you say that you don't care about prices and that people who say there will be a crash are doom mongers and on other posts within this board you say that a crash won't occur. This is at odds with another post on the MFW board where you indicated that UK prices would go the same as the US (i.e. crash) and so you were waiting for a crash to occur and then you will buy a larger property:

keeperbear wrote: »

After comparing the UK and US housing markets, it seemed madness to even think about buying a bigger property in the UK.

Make your mind up! :rotfl:

Gorgeous_George

Elle83 wrote: »

This situation really does suck doesn't it?! Some couples can't even afford shared ownership in the areas they live in let alone a whole house.

Lots of things 'suck' in the rat-race.

Me having to work while many others live off benefits and 'cash-in-hand' jobs (quickly checks punctuation!).

Our elderly having to fund care home fees while criminals live in prison for free.

Stamp Duty.

People on £40K paying the same tax rate as those on £1,000,000+.

National Insurance being capped at such a low level.

A certain policeman.

The list goes on.



GG

If at first you don't succeed...

Turnbull2000

http://www.lancashireeveningtelegraph.co.uk/display.var.1546408.0.house_prices_fall_in_most_boroughs.php

After experiencing some London levels of inflation, it seems Lancashire prices have ground to a half - and possibly going into reverse.

HOUSE prices in most East Lancashire boroughs have on average fallen for the first time in several years, according to official figures.
The Land Registry, which collates information on the sale of every house in the country, shows that for the first quarter of this year prices dropped by as much as 9.9 per cent.

Don't panic yet though...

An expert said that the fall could a "temporary blip" caused partly by an the amount of extra homes going on the market due to the expected introduction of Home Information Packs (HIPS).

I love it how the identity of this "expert" has not been revealed. What are the odds it's an estate agent or mortgage adviser? :rotfl:

Some interesting statistics on the BBC house price index for my area (Tyne & Wear) over the last quarter too;

Newcastle -5.4%
Gateshead -2.9%
North Tyneside -2.2%

It seems we're back to where we were in 2005 when the market was cooling off... and the Bank of England cut rates to cause another boom.