how many REALLY think there'll be a crash rather than a stabilisation ?

ManAtHome

albacore1854 wrote: »

Thanks Phlash.
But I'd really like to understand how the credit withdrawal will work.

No one is going to stand by and loose their home, they would use loans/shift cards about etc. Realistically how long could they hold out for.

As you say, people will hang on as long they can, but....

That vanishing £150 or so a month is money which won't be spent in "the shops". Lower profits, and the shops start to lay people off and/or buy in fewer goods and services, which then hits the services and supply companies (who then have to cut down.... etc).

steve0115

Hi all.
I have been told myself by someone in the know that a 30% drop is likely and thought not possible. Its just a game. Glad I rent.:j The banks seem to put up rates to keep the property wheel turning. I predict longer term mortgages becoming more popular in the future. The real Desperate truth could be alot worse than we realize, but we are now used to paying through the nose for a roof over our heads (Mans first need in life). Self assured mortgages a few years ago, my 7yr old could have got one apparently. I would be curious to know what percentage of the houses sold annualy were bought by people grossly exagerating thier income. I saw watchdog myself when about 9 out of the 10 mortgage brokers were caught on camera TELLING the person what to write in the income box to attain the mortgage they needed. Cant really blame people but how much has that fuelled the ridiculous house prices of today. Also a large percentage must have re-mortgaged solely on the back of thier over inflated house prices. How much they have left in the bank after a few weeks away and a new pair of shoes is anyones guess, so in theory people should be able to struggle through. Its all down to interest rates I suppose, affordability for most people who it matters to. The reasons on BBC news for interest rate rises are laughable. To encourage people not to spend as much was one. DER.. Well Thanx..:beer: I think as time goes on we are being conditioned to think we SHOULD be paying an absolute fortune for the privelige of a half decent house. A liberty I think.. If prices drop 30% its cause thats as far as the bank want them to drop to make the money THEY want to make. Thats my view And then you die....:A And then the taxman joins the party and takes a big chunk of what turned you grey and put you 6ft under in the first place. Your bloody mortgage.. :xmassign:
My mate showed me a web site property in Ireland for sale. Cheap as chips. I think we should ALL move there. That would show them......

steve0115

albacore1854 wrote: »

Don't the house price indexes exclude repo'd properties, and cash purchases from their data, for fear of a negative skew.

My point entirely. Like other things, (crime statistics come to mind. They dont include burglars and rapist's. ) The figures we see are the figures they want us to see to make things work the way THEY want it to work.

Snow_Dog

Best one I ever read was when they took out the car crimes from the crime statistics because they were swamping the data, then the following year crowed on about how they had cut reported crime as if we had all forgotten about the fact that half the crime was no longer classified as crime but is now regarded as a public nuisance.

Remember trying to get a orifice of the law to fill out a crime sheet down at the local nick for my stolen stereo and smashed windows on the car. They didnt want to know.

Gold_Shogun

Gorgeous_George wrote: »

By jove, I think you've got it. Any idea what numbers I should take on Saturday's Loottery?

Well, Statistically speaking ... The Six winning numbers would definitely be the best bet !!!

BTW, George ... I've just GOTTA ask, what happened with the Nasty Policeman you recently had the misfortune to meet ???

Regards
Bob

EDIT P.S. ... Whoops, I just noticed Snow Dog beat me to the joke ... DOH !!

A_Fool_&_His_Borrowed_Mon

saunaboy wrote: »

ok, next question, what will happen after a crash ?

They boom again, then crash, rinse, repeat. ad infinitum.

Such is the nature of capitalist cycles.

wecanhelpu

Gold_Shogun wrote: »

EDIT P.S. ... Whoops, I just noticed Snow Dog beat me to the joke ... DOH !!

Snowdog making a joke?

that's a first

keeperbear

eek wrote: »

This is one reason why HPC is a good site. You could watch this argument being torn to shreds twice a day.

Sorry mate, but I think that HPC website is a total waste of space. I started visiting it a few years ago and I am glad that I didn't listen to all the doom and gloom merchants who were going to STR.

The truth is no one knows what will happen to house prices. Furthermore, many homeowners don't really care as they own a home not an investment.

nollag2006

At long last keeperbear, someone with a bit of perspective posting on this thread!!

As a landlord, I really hope that house prices keep on rising, but the truth is that no-one really knows.

My greatest error was selling a lovely 2 bed flat in Richmond in 2002 for £230k, because I listened to "an expert" who predicted then that house prices were overvalued by 20 -30 %. He's probably still sticking by his thesis !!!!

nollag2006

Ah yes, the acerbic wit and intellectual rigour of wecanhelpu comes to the rescue.

:beer: