how many REALLY think there'll be a crash rather than a stabilisation ?

Tightmartin

Guy_Montag wrote: »

Also the typical age of a FTBer is 29, that means the majority will be coming to the end of their student loan repayments, if they have any.

Where is everyone living from leaving University (assuming they went) and buying there first house? Must be in all the BTL properties.

dannyboycey

albacore1854 wrote: »

What I'm looking for is a reasoned argument in layman's terms.

Here's one....

Interest rates were CUT in August 2005 (a stupid move by the BOE) - This lead to some cheap (or cheaper) fixed rate deals around that time. Those that fixed for 2 years are just about to move onto their lenders standard variable rate and will get the shock of their lives when their repayments suddenly rocket.

Have a look at this article - which explains much better than I just have.

albacore1854

Correct me if I'm wrong, but my example is worse than theirs, i.e 4% to 6%, and even then the extra 160quid a month is hardly likely on its own to have the bailiffs on the door.

Sorry mate, but I just can't see that the current level is as woeful as you suggest.

wecanhelpu

Tightmartin wrote: »

He is the bloke who presents "Dragons Den" so he must know all about the housing market - how stupid of you to question the financial credibility of one of the BBC's finest hacks.

I think you'll find that the presenter of "dragons' den" is Evan Davis.

He is also a current pin-up boy of "housepricecrash.co.uk"

How stupid of you to even think you know more than me about............



....................well anything really.



You can't even get basic facts right.

albacore1854

so surely if mortgage holders are by definition better off, they are more able to pay the bills.

All this is reinforcing my view, that its no where near as black as teh picture you are trying to paint.

hobbesandco

I've been watching the property market with interest for many years now (I bought a house in 2004) and I think the biggest problem is with a lack of clear, impartial data. Month after month we have had statistics churned out by the following parties with a more than is healthy vested interest in the housing market:

1. Banks
2. Building societies
3. Sub prime mortgage lenders
4. Buy to let mortgate lenders
5. Chartered surveyors
6. Estate Agents
7. and even the government

None of the above want to see a crash and I believe it is the lack of publicised data from impartial organisations that is causing the real problem. One bank will report on booming house prices, then another bank will churn out the same data a month or two later giving the impression that prices have gone up even higher in the second month when really they're referring to the same data!

As a result people's expectations of higher prices increases and a vicious cycle is started. The stock market crash in 2001 and genuine supply problems (in certain areas of the country) have exacerbated the housing crisis but can only account for a small percentage of the rise in house prices.

I read a report by ABN-AMRO the other day which suggested that speculation was the main reason behind the boom. An example they gave was of recent speculation in Northern Ireland leading to house prices in Belfast being on a par with London! Their argument was that if there was a genuine supply problem there then rentals would increase almost as greatly as house prices due to the demand for housing - but this hasn't happened. Nor has this happened around the country. This is due to a large percentage of mortgages being taken out by buy-to-let speculators, most of whom are buying flats in cities. This has led to a glut of flats and hence prices not increasing nearly as rapidly as other property types.

This is all in sharp contradiction to a well known buy to let mortgage lender who said that only a very small percentage (3% or less) of buyers were buy-to-let investors.

I think there is a real need for a more balanced view of property in the country. There need to be more people like Andrew Oswald and Roger Bootle quoting an alternative viewpoint of the housing market. Unfortunately, I envisage a time in the not too distant future when the property market does crash when the banks and other mortgage lenders will be charged with misselling property as an investment. Their statistics will be questioned and unfortunately many organisations' reputations will be ripped to shreds (well until the next housing boom).

I don't want to see a housing crash. After all everyone would be affected if there was a recession resulting; I would not want to lose my livelihood! I do think it would be best for everyone though if housing prices either fell a few percentage points or at least stabilised over several years so that 'real' house prices actually decreased. This would give everyone a chance to either get on the housing ladder or move up it.

I don't think this will happen as the flip side to so much data being published by the above organisations tends to compound people's fears. The banks will only affirm each other. Once the ball starts rolling it won't stop until a whole lot of people are affected. We have only to see what's happening in Ireland,Spain and the USA to know what's heading our way!

Perhaps renting isn't such a bad idea after all...

albacore1854

Don't the house price indexes exclude repo'd properties, and cash purchases from their data, for fear of a negative skew.

kingkano

I think the problem with asking a lender how many BTL investors they have is that half the time they dont even know some of their customers are letting the properties right?!

Gorgeous_George

kingkano wrote: »

I think the problem with asking a lender how many BTL investors they have is that half the time they dont even know some of their customers are letting the properties right?!

But that's a guess with no evidence. I could equally say that many BTLs are occupied by elephants.



GG

ollyshaw

Latest figures from home.co.uk

Asking prices DOWN 2% this month in the North

Asking prices DOWN over 12 month in the East Midlands

Asking prices below base rates in 8/11 regions.

As for London and scotland, still boom time.

Olly