The next stock market correction

N1AK

Glen_Clark wrote: »

True. But using the dot com lunacy of 15 years ago as a yardstick is probably as reliable as the official inflation statistics .........

It's a very useful yardstick when what we're talking about is human behaviour and whether stock markets are going to crash in the next few months. An equivalent peak to 1999 would, in my opinion, be around the 10k-12k mark. Do I think we'll get there? I guess I'm dubious, but my point is that my opinion on it is little more than a random guess (as it as good as everyone else's opinion).

Someone who looked at the stock market in 1996 when the FTSE 100 reached 4k and decided it was over-valued would have been just as justified as someone doing the same today. However, if they had held onto their shares they'd have seen them increase in value by 75% and received the dividends as well.

Glen_Clark wrote: »

PS: how much of that increased GDP is rising asset prices and does it take into account the increasing poipulation......

The available figures show inflation ajusted, per capita, and per capita inflation adjusted figures. Unsurprisingly, to anyone not selling the immigration is bad fiction, all of them have been increasing. However, if you actually wanted to know the answer then I'm sure that your google skills would have been sufficient to find it

Glen_Clark

N1AK wrote: »

The available figures show inflation ajusted, per capita, and per capita inflation adjusted figures. Unsurprisingly, to anyone not selling the immigration is bad fiction, all of them have been increasing. However, if you actually wanted to know the answer then I'm sure that your google skills would have been sufficient to find it

Can you run that by me again Sir Humphrey .....

gadgetmind

If you put quotes around "immigration is bad", then it should all parse just fine.

jimjames

gadgetmind wrote: »

I remember when people only looked back 5 years to 1999. Then 10 years, now 15, soon 17. They only seem interested in the period that makes investing look as bad as they can, and even then only ignoring dividends.

Of course, fairly soon we'll make a new high (which we'll bounce either side of for quite some time) so what will people do then to extract the worst possible story they can?

I just let them get on with worrying and keep investing through thick and thin. I'm pretty sure who'll come out on top after 40 years.

Glen_Clark

gadgetmind wrote: »

If you put quotes around "immigration is bad", then it should all parse just fine.

I am still stuck with how they adjust inflation 'per capita' (did he mean GDP?) and 'all of them (what) have been increasing'

rpc

Glen_Clark wrote: »

I am still stuck with how they adjust inflation 'per capita' (did he mean GDP?) and 'all of them (what) have been increasing'

GDP growth in cash terms
GDP growth in real terms
GDP per capita growth in cash terms
GDP per capita growth in real terms

Ask four economists (or perhaps make believe economists, such as politicians) which of the above is the most useful measure and you will get five different answers.

N1AK

Glen_Clark wrote: »

Can you run that by me again Sir Humphrey .....

Ha ha ha very good, the old I'm unable to comprehend you thus what your saying is too complex, how very original minister.

I'll paraphrase in sun level language for you: "There's more GDP for each bloke innit"

N1AK

Glen_Clark wrote: »

I am still stuck with how they adjust inflation 'per capita' (did he mean GDP?) and 'all of them (what) have been increasing'

Ahhh I see, you don't understand what commas are

You asked "how much of that increased GDP is rising asset prices and does it take into account the increasing poipulation......"

I assumed as I had quoted you especially to help you that you would be able to put it together and get:
inflation adjusted GDP
per capita GDP
inflation adjusted per capita GDP

If that's still too much for you then rpc summarised it nicely.

N1AK

rpc wrote: »

Ask four economists (or perhaps make believe economists, such as politicians) which of the above is the most useful measure and you will get five different answers.

In there defence it does rather depend what you think is most important. If you think quality of life is then per capita is important, if you're worried about the nations ability to pay its debts then total GDP is more critical.

sabretoothtigger

Regarding the market, quite a few major shares have been knocked back even if the index is up. Some people note profit taking or lower demand and wonder if the market might fall but its not yet apparent

IPO delayed a few times from this demand lacking and so on. Could be a storm, could blow over. Im just mentioning it as the index itself does not seem especially likely to break down but there is a couple signs individually

RMG has come back down quite a bit. Oil rising can put costs up for a few, restrict their pe