Independence?
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It's a reasonable question and not one I will pretend to know the answer to. All I will say is if you look at all of the countries who have gained independence from Britain throughout the commonwealth, many of them will have used the pound informally for a long period afterwards. Ireland being a prime example.
And look what has happened in Ireland.Now the argument will be thrown at you that Ireland's economy was stagnant during this period. But I wonder if this had more to do with the turmoil they were going through/companies being unwilling to invest there than their informal use of the pound.
So this is an idea of yours rather than fact?It might surprise you to hear that Panama's financial system is one of the most stable in the world, they've been using the dollar for a long time.
No it doesn't surprise me. However it does give Scotland some (major)problems - no central bank, no lender of last resort, no control over interest rates and would breach EU membership conditions.On bailouts, my first argument would be that an Indy Scotland would not have de-regulated the banks in the first place (which caused the crash).
Perhaps but we can't guarantee that. Large economies like the US and UK suffered in the bank crisis yet we wouldn't have - unlikely.My 2nd argument would be, that the UK actually had a multi billion dollar bailout from the US federal reserve aswell.
Countries bail each other out, because it's not in their interest for their trading partners to go bust. The same would be the case for an indy Scotland.
Scotland would just be a small country on its own. Think Iceland, Ireland and Cyprus. How have they fared?Page 14 of this is a decent read (it all is to be fair) http://wingsoverscotland.com/WeeBlueBookMobileEdition.pdf
To be honest it read like most SNP pamphlets.0 -
According to the Times this morning, on present spending patterns, Scotland had a capital and current spending deficit in 2012-2013 of 8.3% of GDP compared with the UK deficit of 7.3%. As for oil, receipts for that have fallen to an equivalent £4.2 billion for 2013 - 2014.
As for "ropey assertions" you need look no further than the SNP Manifesto (I mean White Paper).
For further info see my recent posts on the thread "SNP in Full Retreat .......", - no need to repeat myslef further.
With all due respect of course because I hope that Scotland is still around for the rest of us to help out.
I haven't even read the white paper
Leading economist Sir Donald Mackay disagrees with you on how feasible the White Paper assertions are:
http://www.businessforscotland.co.uk/leading-economist-sir-donald-mackay-backs-independence-scotland-will-be-better-off/
However, on the White Paper. It's a Manifesto, and I've seen enough elections in my time to know that EVERY manifesto, gets trashed by somebody at some stage, as unworkable, uncosted etc etc. That's just politics.
The fact of the matters are, that Scotland could easily afford to be an independent country if it so wished, and would, like any other country find a way to work within any paramaters it had.
I'll be voting Greens if we manage a yes.0 -
And look what has happened in Ireland.
Like I've said, they stagnated for a while, did well in the 90's and early 2000s, had the crash and are now actually recovering much faster than the UK. (GDP per head is higher too, likewise Iceland) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_OECD_countries_by_GDP_per_capita
What they did have, which is much more important than money, is the freedom to make their own choices politically.
They don't spend billions of pounds on nuclear weapons, don't go into illegal wars, they've not suffered the bedroom tax and poll tax and they didn't spend half their lives living under a Tory government which for me personally is a big plus
So this is an idea of yours rather than fact?
It's an opinion, I'm no economist but even if I was you could always find another economist to disagree with me:p, my point was that Ireland using the pound informally was not necessarily why their economy stagnated (and I say "stagnated" deliberately because it didn't go down the pan, it just didn't grow as quickly as it could have)
Seperately however, economic growth is not some magical precursor to everybody being happier and wealthier. They report it on the news like it's fantastic news that the GDP has "topped pre-recession levels" I certainly am no richer or happier than I was 2 years ago
Poverty rose in Scotland last year and throughout the UK. Despite the economy growing.
No it doesn't surprise me. However it does give Scotland some (major)problems - no central bank, no lender of last resort, no control over interest rates and would breach EU membership conditions.
well like I said all countries have problems. The UK has 1 million people using foodbanks and it's pensioners are the 4th poorest in the developed world.
Problems are there to be overcome, Panama seems to have done well.
Not entirely sure it breaches EU membership conditions but happy to be corrected.
Can't remember if I linked this previously Adam Smith Institute http://newsnetscotland.com/index.php/scottish-news/9555-indy-scotland-could-flourish-with-or-without-currency-agreement-says-respected-institution
Perhaps but we can't guarantee that. Large economies like the US and UK suffered in the bank crisis yet we wouldn't have - unlikely.
Think you've misunderstood my point, my point was that Scotland being part of the UK didn't "protect" us from the banking crisis. Some would say it was part of the reason it happened.
Scotland would just be a small country on its own. Think Iceland, Ireland and Cyprus. How have they fared?
Well they were bailed out, just like Scotland would have been, and just like the UK were. Iceland and Ireland have recovered much quicker than the UK and as the table above shows, at the present time are doing far better than we are.
To be honest it read like most SNP pamphlets.
I felt it was jam full of facts, most illuminating was the quote from a unionist politician which stated if Scotland had been independent since 1981 we would have an oil fund worth £100 billion instead of a 1.4 trillion debt. It makes the "cost of independence" argument look rather silly.
Hey whatever the result of this referendum I'm glad we've had it, what a conversation to have.0 -
I haven't even read the white paper
Leading economist Sir Donald Mackay disagrees with you on how feasible the White Paper assertions are:
http://www.businessforscotland.co.uk/leading-economist-sir-donald-mackay-backs-independence-scotland-will-be-better-off/
However, on the White Paper. It's a Manifesto, and I've seen enough elections in my time to know that EVERY manifesto, gets trashed by somebody at some stage, as unworkable, uncosted etc etc. That's just politics.
The fact of the matters are, that Scotland could easily afford to be an independent country if it so wished, and would, like any other country find a way to work within any paramaters it had.
I'll be voting Greens if we manage a yes.
I liked the expression:
“The OBR is also hopelessly at sea when it comes to forecasting the price of oil.” -
Yes the White Paper is a manifesto.
In an important issue like the referendum, however, I think the people are entitled to be given an honest appraisal of the advantages and disadvantages and not be subject to the half truths that marr any party manifesto.
It should not be politics as usual.
On the Mackay intervention; there are many sources that differ from his opinion.
Since you are a "Green" person; how do you reconcile the search for more and more difficult sources for oil in the North with the attendant risk of spillage and pollution to Scotland's Northern Coast and beyond?
On the assertion that Scotland can become a viable country, of course I agree and so would nearly everyone I imagine; and I've said so.
The issue, however, is whether Scotland would be better off outside the Union than within and at what level of prosperity a Separated Scotland would reach and how long the transition period would be and what it would cost.
There is also the small matter of being part of the British Nation and benefiting from amicable relationship that has matured over the years (give or take a few anti-whoever people).
I take much th same view about the UK and the EU. There are problems to be fixed in the EU but how much better to enjoy our somewhat privelaged position in the EU and have access to all that trade without trade hindrances. Probelms can be fixed.
It's somewhat similar to the Scotland / UK thing.Union, not Disunion
I have a Right Wing and a Left Wing.
It's the only way to fly straight.0 -
The people of Scotland, in general, can't be trusted to look after their own affairs. Some of them can't even spell independence. Do we really want people like that deciding the future of our country?0
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I liked the expression:
“The OBR is also hopelessly at sea when it comes to forecasting the price of oil.” -
Yes the White Paper is a manifesto.
In an important issue like the referendum, however, I think the people are entitled to be given an honest appraisal of the advantages and disadvantages and not be subject to the half truths that marr any party manifesto.
It should not be politics as usual.
On the Mackay intervention; there are many sources that differ from his opinion.
Since you are a "Green" person; how do you reconcile the search for more and more difficult sources for oil in the North with the attendant risk of spillage and pollution to Scotland's Northern Coast and beyond?
On the assertion that Scotland can become a viable country, of course I agree and so would nearly everyone I imagine; and I've said so.
The issue, however, is whether Scotland would be better off outside the Union than within and at what level of prosperity a Separated Scotland would reach and how long the transition period would be and what it would cost.
There is also the small matter of being part of the British Nation and benefiting from amicable relationship that has matured over the years (give or take a few anti-whoever people).
I take much th same view about the UK and the EU. There are problems to be fixed in the EU but how much better to enjoy our somewhat privelaged position in the EU and have access to all that trade without trade hindrances. Probelms can be fixed.
It's somewhat similar to the Scotland / UK thing.
Thanks String.
On the Green issue, Are we suddenly going to stop drilling for oil if we vote to stay in the UK? The answer is obviously no.
Let's continue to use the oil (and spend it on things which matter not Trident) eventually once the oil has run out we'll have 25% of Europes wind and tidal energy to keep us ticking over.0 -
Fergusons closing. Clyde built no more...the fishy two have presided over it. Shame on them.0
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Fergusons closing. Clyde built no more...the fishy two have presided over it. Shame on them.
Yep, Another Shipyard closes. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-28803561
In 1972 we had 34,00 shipbuilding jobs. We now have 6,000, yet independence is cited as a risk to the Shipbuilding industry. Ironic0
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