Effect of Scottish Independence Vote

incandescent

TCA wrote: »

No, it's not a fact. We have absolutely no idea what settlement would be reached with rUK, so you have no way of knowing what Scotland's income (or indebtedness) would be. One fact is that Scotland currently generates more income per person than the rest of the UK.

Yes, it is a fact.

Scotland has a higher deficit than the rest of the UK - even the SNP admit that. We would face higher borrowing costs because we would have a lower credit rating, at least for several years. And we would have large startup costs as we would have to build new institutions to replace the UK ones. And if you think we're somehow going to make our debt disappear you are absolutely delusional.

There is no way we would have as much money to spend on actual services.

These are facts, however you attempt to spin them away.

You can't put IF in an argument and then call it a fact. And for sake of that argument, if Scotland did adopt a new currency, you have no way of knowing how that currency would perform globally.

I see you've ignored the fact that that would created foreign exchange costs and fluctuation risks on all the trade we do with the rest of the UK. This is over half our trade, and these are costs and risks we simply don't face at the moment. A huge proportion of Scottish businesses would instantly become less profitable.

Again, this is a fact.

If you're talking about savings and investments in Scotland, yes it's the unknown, but you assume the worst.

Our savings institutions are currently regulated in London and our stock market investments are (mostly) invested in the London stock exchange. Even if we become independent, there simply won't be an equivalent stock exchange to invest in here. So our savings, investments and pensions will, again, be subject to foreign exchange costs and risks that they simply don't face at the moment.

Not that I believe financial forecasts but it's easy to be a fast growing economy when you're in a right mess to begin with. And this large UK economy endures recessions like every other sized country. You seem to be looking at where we are now and conveniently forgetting how we got there. Do you think successive UK governments have performed admirably? I don't. They've borrowed £1.3 trillion and you think things could be a lot worse. You're right, but they could be a lot better too.

I'm not saying everything is perfect, but we are undeniably very much better off than 95% of the world. That's not a position to be in. And I love how the Yes campaigners conveniently ignore the financial disasters that unfolded in Scandinavia in the 1990s. Scottish politicians are not uniquely gifted individuals who can outperform every other country in the world. Far, far from it in fact.

And we have no idea if we'll still be in the EU if an in/out referendum happens. If someone is in favour of the EU, I'd say they've a better chance if they lived in Scotland. An independent Scotland will be welcomed into the EU. 100%. I won't trot out the old arguments already from earlier in the thread but I have no doubts.

Most polls are showing that those who would vote to leave the EU are in the minority, and I expect this to harden up as the debate intensifies.

rpc calls it correctly. The fear is of the unknown and that's undoubtedly understandable. Why take a risk when things are so OK at the moment right? The answer is that they may be OK for some people, but not necessarily everybody. And believe it or not, some of us actually think we could do better.

Set aside for one moment what you think of the SNP and what you'd call their wishlist. Scotland is in deficit to more or less the same degree as the UK as a whole. If you accept that, why is it so difficult to imagine that Scotland could not continue under its own steam? Plenty smaller countries do so with far less resources. Of course there are costs to setting up new infrastructure but as I love to repeat, savings will made on massive items of expenditure like Trident.

As I have said, we will DEFINITELY have a lower credit rating to begin with and larger borrowing needs due to a larger deficit and startup costs. This means more debt, tax rises, austerity or a combination of the three. This is unavoidable.

And as I have also said, we are just emerging from a very long recession. I have no appetite to spend the rest of my adult life in a completely unnecessary financial depression because of independence.

And I'm afraid I can't put aside what I think of the SNP. Scotland has become a place where people are openly bullied for holding the majority opinion on this. Where institutions and businesses are boycotted and threatened for not holding the SNP line.

It is unacceptable and I do not want to live in a country that allows this to happen.

What is also constantly repeated ad nauseum in this thread is that Scotland cannot do it. Nothing is possible and it's all lies. The party line of David Cameron, as I quoted the other day, is that Scotland could of course do it. Just that Scotland would be better off in the Union. That to me is a more reasonable approach. The consistent repetition that Scotland cannot do it, is exactly what is turning more people to vote Yes.

And can we please get away from the posts repeatedly calling Salmond and Sturgeon liars and therefore anyone that believes them is a fool. Independence is not all about the SNP and there is a positive case to be made. Whether you're hearing it or not, reading consistent bleats about nationalists blaming Westminster all the time and telling lies does not lend strength to the No argument and smacks of the same name-calling that you accuse them of. Let's drop it please.

And on that note, time for bed said Zebedee.

Nobody has said Scotland can't do it. What we are saying is that we would be BETTER OFF not doing it.

And despite all the accusations about how awful us unionists are, the No campaign is still leading. What does that tell you?

incandescent

mikey_45 wrote: »

there you go again scaremonger, if we want to keep the pound we will it is ours as well after all. why is england so worried about what we do anyway, they are panicking thats why. they will be losing there grip of the oil. cash cow gone. its england that will be in trouble not bonny scotland

I'm beginning to suspect you're a troll mikey.

zagubov

incandescent wrote: »

Shared currency? Every UK party leader has said absolutely no. The treasury's top civil servant has said absolutely no. The BoE has expressed severe concerns about it. Polls have repeatedly shown that the electorate of the rest of the UK oppose it.

What on earth has that got to do with it?

incandescent wrote: »

And how exactly would a currency union constitute independence anyway? It would mean handing control of fiscal policy over to what would then be a foreign country.

Countries with experience of banking and finance have managed to handle this perfectly well.

Luxembourg managed prefectly well. Leichtenstein does too. Austria, Netherlands are managing it. But hey will Scotland be too uniquely stupid to manage it?

incandescent

zagubov wrote: »

What on earth has that got to do with it?

Every political and financial leader, and the electorate of the rest of the UK are opposed to a currency union.

I'd say that means a currency union is very unlikely to happen.

Countries with experience of banking and finance have managed to handle this perfectly well.

Luxembourg managed prefectly well. Leichtenstein does too. Austria, Netherlands are managing it. But hey will Scotland be too uniquely stupid to manage it?

No, it's only the nationalists who keep trotting out the Scotland is incapable tripe, in an attempt to smear anyone who disagrees with them.

Now, please answer my actual question.

ColdIron

zagubov wrote: »

Luxembourg managed prefectly well. Leichtenstein does too. Austria, Netherlands are managing it.

Which foreign country determines the level of taxation and government spending policies of those countries?

incandescent

For those claiming everything will obviously be better, take a look at current unemployment figures for a number of other countries. I think the UK compares pretty damn well right now.

Greece: 26.7%
Spain: 25.6%
Portugal: 15%
Slovakia: 13.9%
Poland: 13.5%
Italy: 13%
Ireland: 11.9%
France: 10.2%
Finland: 9.5%
Netherlands: 8.7%
Sweden: 8.6%
Belgium: 8.5%
Czech Republic: 8.3%
Hungary: 8.3%
Denmark: 7%

UK: 6.9%

USA: 6.7%
Germany: 5.1%

Archi_Bald

ColdIron wrote: »

Which foreign country determines the level of taxation and government spending policies of those countries?

I think he means the countries he lists are using the Euro and there is no fiscal union between those countries. Though why he picks just these 4 out of the 18 Euro countries, all of whom had agreed they would use the same currency, and why he doesn't mention Greece and Cyprus, and why he doesn't even mention the the general Euro crisis......simply beats me!

Archi_Bald

incandescent wrote: »

For those claiming everything will obviously be better, take a look at current unemployment figures for a number of other countries. I think the UK compares pretty damn well right now.

Now you are beginning to play unfair, bring actual figures into the debate. How's anyone meant to fight these with party political slogans?!? Have a heart :D

zagubov

Archi_Bald wrote: »

I think he means the countries he lists are using the Euro and there is no fiscal union between those countries. Though why he picks just these 4 out of the 18 Euro countries, all of whom had agreed they would use the same currency, and why he doesn't mention Greece and Cyprus, and why he doesn't even mention the the general Euro crisis......simply beats me!

I've asked before if Scotland and ruK were thought to be ending like Greece and Germany but I was accused of a strawman argument. Let's assume our economies won't be diverging that much but will remain like north European ones. That's why I haven't mentioned Greece or Cyprus.

Only two of the others use the euro by the way. My other examples were Luxembourg in its currency union with Belgium to use the Belgian franc for 60 years from the 1920s and Leichtenstein in its formal currency union with Switzerland to use the Swiss Franc since 1980.

ColdIron

So of the countries you mention two are not managing it, one manages it no more and your aspirations for Scotland are to be like Leichtenstein?