Effect of Scottish Independence Vote

zagubov

rpc wrote: »

I don't. I think if it becomes clear that some of the things promised in the white paper aren't going to materialise, there will be a backlash against the SNP.

It doesn't need a single unionist party to gain power at Holyrood to cause problems - all it needs is a unionist majority (which has occurred in every Scottish Parliament except the current one).

An academic might think the possible constitutional problems are interesting - I think they are rather worrying. We could end up in a right mess in the middle of the negotiations.

Would you trust the other parties to stick up for Scotland in subsequent (re) negotiations? Do you imagine the voters will elect whatever party is in power in Westminster to Holyrood as well?

That could work prove interesting especially if the Westminster government depended on Scottish votes to hold power.

DominicH

Borrowedtune wrote: »

any thoughts on hedging against this risk ?

Place a bet on a Yes victory? The odds are still decent, 3+ on Betfair.

Personally I think any market panic if independence happened could be a good buying opportunity, because my belief is that in the long run things wouldn't be that different. The Scottish and rUK economies and indeed societies would still be closely integrated, and they could well end up in some kind of Sterling currency union, terms to be largely dictated by rUK. Not that different to devo max, it seems to me.

rpc

zagubov wrote: »

Would you trust the other parties to stick up for Scotland in subsequent (re) negotiations?

I don't trust anyone to "stand up for Scotland" - the SNP will stand up for themselves just like any other political party.

Perhaps I am not being clear - if there is a unionist majority in the next Holyrood parliament and secession has not taken place then there is an argument that the people have rejected the reality of independence (rather than the vision). They could claim a mandate to end the independence negotiations and perhaps rerun the referendum.

The SNP claim that they have a mandate to seek independence based on nothing other than having a nationalist majority in parliament. By the same argument, a unionist majority can claim a mandate to seek to maintain the union.

That's where the real constitutional crisis could occur - when the referendum result conflicts with the mandate that the people grant their parliament. Neither is superior, so which wins? The will of the people or the will of the people?

incandescent

TCA wrote: »

The notion of people being scared to speak out and intimidated by nationalists is just ridiculous.

And yet it is the truth, as people keep telling you. You haven't experienced the bullying because you're not speaking against independence.

It's time folk like you started listening to what people are trying to tell you instead of just belittling us.

incandescent

DominicH wrote: »

Place a bet on a Yes victory? The odds are still decent, 3+ on Betfair.

Personally I think any market panic if independence happened could be a good buying opportunity, because my belief is that in the long run things wouldn't be that different. The Scottish and rUK economies and indeed societies would still be closely integrated, and they could well end up in some kind of Sterling currency union, terms to be largely dictated by rUK. Not that different to devo max, it seems to me.

With devo max we would still have democratic influence over financial policy. If we become a separate country that's just a hanger on to the rUK's coattails, we will have no control over these policies.

TCA

incandescent wrote: »

It's time folk like you started listening to what people are trying to tell you instead of just belittling us.

I made a perhaps unwise crack about investing in canned food seeing as you were seeking a rather overly-speedy new home for your savings before the votes are even cast, never mind the 18 months or so of projected secession negotiations. I unreservedly apologise if you felt belittled by that. It was intended as a bit of levity, sorry you were offended.

I have no idea what sort of nationalist stuff you're seeing on other forums as I don't visit them and didn't check out your Google search results for the terms 'Scotland' and 'traitor' because it's pretty obvious what you'll find. I won't apologise for people I don't know but I'll apologise again if my comments about you over-dramatising the cyber bullying only served to add to your angst. All I can say is that some forums might be better avoided if some over zealous posters are likely to cause offence. Sorry if I'm one of them.

As a result of your comments I have avoided posting in this thread for a couple of days but you've seen fit to have a go yet again hence this reply. If you go back through this thread you'll see I do read other points of views and only in the last week have congratulated rpc on a good post and even agreed with one of yours. I post plenty stuff that I believe backs up my point of view and adds to the debate, so I don't particularly appreciate your 'folk like you' comment.

You probably noticed that on this particular topic and in this particular thread that I'm one of barely a few pro-independence posters. The vast minority. I therefore consistently get my views lambasted and pilloried and even called the occasional name (you know who you are ), but I'm not screaming blue murder or accusing people of intimidation because they refuse to agree with me or listen to what I'm saying. If I had 10 Scottish Pounds for every comment slagging off me and the Yes campaign, I'd have almost enough to buy an English Pound! :eek:


So there you have it. On with the debate.

Yours etc

B**tard child of Salmond and Sturgeon

(who incidentally has never voted SNP and is actually older than Nicola Sturgeon)

Archi_Bald

TCA wrote: »

B**tard child of Salmond and Sturgeon

(who incidentally has never voted SNP and is actually older than Nicola Sturgeon)

She and Alex can perform proper miracles though...may be you are the living proof of it, TCA?

To be fair to you, your latest post reads quite balanced, and perhaps you felt a bit rough, or you were misunderstood, when you earlier dismissed other posters arguments in typical Salmond/Sturgeon style. Everybody can trip up at times.

TCA

Archi_Bald wrote: »

Just take one example: I watched quite a bit of Scottish Parliament proceedings over the last couple of days (on BBC Parliament). One shocking fact I learnt yesterday is that there are still over 800,000 people in Scotland living in fuel poverty. That is some 15% of the entire population of Scotland. Given the far-reaching powers the scottish government already has, there is just about no reasonable explanation for why this is still the case, though as usual, the SNP blame "Westminster" for it. Worse still, I cannot see any commitment in the independence white paper to eradicate fuel poverty.

Quite a shocking statistic, which prompted some Googling tonight. I found that there is some sort of policy and programme in existence. I haven't read through it but here it is if you need some bedtime reading:

http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Built-Environment/Housing/warmhomes/fuelpoverty

The UK-wide report from the NEA makes for even grimmer reading. Over 5.2 million households in fuel poverty:

http://www.nea.org.uk/Resources/NEA/Publications/2012/Fuel%20Poverty%20Monitor%202013%20(FINAL).pdf

Archi_Bald

Yes, there is lots of stuff on the Internet on UK fuel poverty, and there is some plan that calls for the eradication of FP in Scotland by 2016 (I can remember whose plan that is but is seems to pre-date the current government). The discussion yesterday was about the fact that nobody expects the plan to succeed by 2016 or anytime in the foreseeable future.

All the government can presently do is help with building insulation grants, building regs, and perhaps some benefit payments. But energy prices are, realistically, outside any government's control - short of nationalising energy harvesting, distribution and supply. And even that, or particularly that, doesn't offer a guaranteed satisfactory answer. Essentially, nobody knows how to get rid of this terrible problem.

incandescent

TCA wrote: »

I made a perhaps unwise crack about investing in canned food seeing as you were seeking a rather overly-speedy new home for your savings before the votes are even cast, never mind the 18 months or so of projected secession negotiations. I unreservedly apologise if you felt belittled by that. It was intended as a bit of levity, sorry you were offended.

I have no idea what sort of nationalist stuff you're seeing on other forums as I don't visit them and didn't check out your Google search results for the terms 'Scotland' and 'traitor' because it's pretty obvious what you'll find. I won't apologise for people I don't know but I'll apologise again if my comments about you over-dramatising the cyber bullying only served to add to your angst. All I can say is that some forums might be better avoided if some over zealous posters are likely to cause offence. Sorry if I'm one of them.

As a result of your comments I have avoided posting in this thread for a couple of days but you've seen fit to have a go yet again hence this reply. If you go back through this thread you'll see I do read other points of views and only in the last week have congratulated rpc on a good post and even agreed with one of yours. I post plenty stuff that I believe backs up my point of view and adds to the debate, so I don't particularly appreciate your 'folk like you' comment.

You probably noticed that on this particular topic and in this particular thread that I'm one of barely a few pro-independence posters. The vast minority. I therefore consistently get my views lambasted and pilloried and even called the occasional name (you know who you are ), but I'm not screaming blue murder or accusing people of intimidation because they refuse to agree with me or listen to what I'm saying. If I had 10 Scottish Pounds for every comment slagging off me and the Yes campaign, I'd have almost enough to buy an English Pound! :eek:


So there you have it. On with the debate.

Yours etc

B**tard child of Salmond and Sturgeon

(who incidentally has never voted SNP and is actually older than Nicola Sturgeon)

TCA, if you look back through the thread you'll see I actually ticked the Thanks box on a couple of your posts where you did answer factually and/or constructively. All I ever wanted was an open discussion of the facts. I wouldn't be upset if someone presented a reasoned factual case that actually persuaded me that independence was the way to go. But it's clearly not going to happen.

Thing is, this isn't just about internet forums although they're certainly the worst for bullying. At lunchtime today, my boss wandered round to my desk for a bit of a lighthearted chat (we do generally get along well) and for some reason mentioned the SNP. One of the other guys said that I don't like the SNP and my boss then proceeded to take the p**s out of me in front of everyone, calling me a "$hitbag who's frightened about his pension".

I didn't say anything at all. I just sat there and took it because creating a bigger argument would just make it worse. Nobody else laughed.

How do you think I feel right now?